mayoclinic

I'm NOT suggesting that the Pats will trade up in this draft - quite possibly the opposite. There is a lot of value deep in this draft. BUT every year some elite prospects fall a bit in the 1st round, and if BB saw someone he wanted badly I could see trading up with last year's partner, New Orleans.

Why? New Orleans is picking #14 in the 1st. They have no 2nd round (to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey), and I'm not sure about their 3rd round as well (they owe the Jets for Jonathan Vilma - please clarify if anyone knows exactly what). They have major needs at LB and DB on defense and a superbowl caliber offense. They would love to get back into the 1st day, or at least pick up additional picks. At #23 (or potentially as high as #19, see below) they would likely still have several attractive DB or LB options.

I could see BB trading up from #23 to #14. With 2 picks in the 2nd round, #57 would be pretty close to equal value. The Jets went from #25 to #14 in 2007 for #59 and #164. If we franchised Cassel and traded him to TB for #19 + conditional 2010 picks then moving from #19 to #14 would be even easier, with #86 being close to equal value. Picking at 14 could land an elite player who falls (BJ Raji, Aaron Curry, or Malcolm Jenkins - all unlikely but possible; one of the top OTs; or Orapko/Brown if we wanted to go after a top pass rusher). Last year it would have given us a shot at DRC or Brandon Albert. Plus, #14 is right in the "sweet spot" of the 1st round where the rookie salary is not outrageous and the talent is often identical to top 10. With Mayo's success this year, maybe BB would like the idea of getting a top talent who might be more able to step in and contribute.

Again, not saying it's likely, but something to consider.

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patchick

That's a great point about New Orleans -- I believe you're right that they've already dealt away their #2 & #3. Ah, trade scenarios galore!

WhiZa

I think it comes down to is there a player in this draft that can, like you said, step in and contribute right away. Some player that is an low risk upgrade of a current position. Last year, we had Hobson starting at ILB before the draft so signing a ILB in round one was an easy upgrade.

At this point, before FA, the only openings I see where a first round pick has the best chance to step in and contribute (if you are trading up you want to give the new guy the best opportunity to do just that) is at safety and 3rd WR. You could also make a case for LB, but I think the starters are set for next year (AD, Mayo, Bruschi, Vrabel).

So the question is, is there that special safety or WR at #14 that you couldn't find if you drafted one at #23 and/or in the second round.

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patchick

I think it's broader than that, if we're talking about a player worth the #14 overall. IF the right player were available he could potentially make a significant contribution year one at positions like RT, TE, CB & SILB.

dryheat44

Yep. Don't forget that BB considers 3rd WRs, 2nd TEs, nickel corners, and pass rushers as "starters".

In an Xs and Os part of the press conference, Belichick was asked about the recent trend in the NFL of teams placing a higher value on third corners, a result of more offenses spreading the field. Belichick agreed, while revealing that the Patriots have re-valued/re-graded parts of their draft board and the way they value certain positions, such as a third receiver, third corner, third-down running back, or a second- or third-down pass rusher compared to other positions

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ctpatsfan77

Also, keep in mind that the pick has to already represent value before BB jumps up. At no point this decade have the Patriots moved up on day one just to "get their guy."

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WhiZa

I agree. Though at RT, TE, and somewhat CB I don't see a first round pick coming in and contributing year one.
RT - As much as I want Kaczur to take a backup role, with his experience, BB just seems to want to keep him in there
TE - Watson is starting next year, like he has the past few years. If we signed a TE it would have to be one who specializes in blocking with potential in the passing game. They would only come in on running downs and at a spot like #14 you need a player who can start and play both running and passing downs, but I don't see a rookie taking that spot from Watson next year.
CB - There is definitely a hole at #2 CB or some might say #1 CB. The patriots drafted 2 CBs last year who made the team and looked decent. I think either one of them will start next year opposite Hobbs (even though I'd love to see an upgrade). The only way I can see them drafting a CB is if that player is a monster on ST, though they drafted Slater last year for just that.

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mayoclinic

I'm not sure I understand your point. I don't see trading up ahead of time, if that's what you mean. But if someone fell to #14 who the Pats really coveted and they thought he wouldn't be available later, I could see them making a draft day move.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

tanked_as_usual

at this point, I believe that good value will fall to #23, so not sure if moving up is a good deal

patchick

I'm not sure I agree overall...Warren was projected by most to the 2nd half of round 1, and they moved up to #13 to secure the last premium DE prospect. This year, though, I'd agree 100% just because I don't see the same match of top need and top prospect happening. Trade-up scenarios would be in the "let the draft come to you" vein.