ARE YOU NEW HERE? NOT LOGGED IN? PLEASE TAKE A MOMENT TO REGISTER FOR AN ACCOUNT AND LOGIN TO REMOVE THIS WINDOW
Welcome to PatsFans.com. Do you have an account? If not - please take a moment to register for our forum and experience a much smoother experience with fewer ads, along with no longer having to see this notification window. Also learn about how you can receive a free Patriots T-Shirt from the Patriots Official ProShop by CLICKING HERE. Please enjoy your stay here, and Go Pats!
As a fan of neither team, this spread is about right.
The Pats SHOULD blow the Ravens out of the water. Stop Rice, avoid turnovers, and stop the deep ball, and the Ravens are done.
The spread is big enough to get some people to bet on the Ravens, which is what Vegas wants.
FEATURED ADVERTISEMENT
DONATE TO PATSFANS.COM
RECEIVE A FREE PATS T-SHIRT AND SAVE 15% OFF WHEN YOU BUY FROM THE OFFICIAL PROSHOP!
Free T-Shirt & Save 15% Off!
Like Our Site? Please help support our site and server costs by DONATING TO PATSFANS.COM and receive a FREE PATRIOTS T-SHIRT and SAVE 15% off EVERY purchase you make from PatriotsProShop.com. You'll also receive added benefits to your account including Removing All Ads During Your Experience Here At Our Forum.
NEEDED YEARLY SITE DONATIONS: 345 | CURRENT # OF SUBSCRIBED SUPPORTERS: 98
That is why it isn't discussion worthy, because it just isn't correct to say that bookmakers guess who will win and effectively place bets by forcing the money the other way. Just doesn't happen, and any degree of logic will tell you that when they can guarantee a 10% with no risk, they aren't going to plss that away by gambling.
Vegas TAKES bets, they don't MAKE bets.
Well, for what it's worth, I've spoken to many operators of online sportsbooks, and heard more than once that they do at times take positions on games where they don't have an even 50/50 split.
Really wasn't the point here--it was more of interest why the spread was what it was. But that conversational ship has long sailed.
__________________
"So I'm going to throw myself against the wall...
'Cause I'd rather feel bad than not feel anything at all."
Oh really? Then why do Sportsbooks spend millions of dollars on professional handicappers and pay tons of money for inside information that the public doesn't know about anyway? If the public is unaware of this inside info, then Vegas shouldn't really care about it either, right?
They have employees who set the lines so that they aren't out of whack to begin with. Spending millions for inside information is a fiment of your imagination.
Quote:
And why bother with computer simulations and spending money on extremely advanced technology and algorithms to come up with a spread? Why not just pay someone 40k a year who researches historical trends, polls bettors, and can figure out exactly where to set the spread for equal betting? Because there is rarely equal betting, so why not just do that?
Again, the fact that they strive to do it correctly is not proof that they are silly enough to take a sure thing and turn it into a gamble.
Quote:
The reason they don't do this is because sharp bettors would kill them with $5M bets and take all their money. Vegas foremost protects themselves by setting the correct line so it's a 50/50 proposition on who will actually cover... the adjustments are made to hedge bets and risks.
No. That is gambling. They are in the business of collecting as close to all of the 10% vig on the bets that they can.
Again, the fact that they work hard to get the initial line right doesn't mean they run their business based on guessing who will win, when they can simply collect 10% with no risk.
Quote:
You act like they would give a team 5-6 points because they think that's where the betting will come in. That's crazy! As I said before, maybe 1-2 points. If the spread was giving a team a touchdown that was not calculated into the real probability equation, the books would go bankrupt.
This makes absolutely no sense. There is no probability equation in a sporting event. Once again, they don't try to predict a winner, that would be effetively making the house a gambler. They strive to get equal money on both sides.
Example. If they get 10,000,000 on Baltimore and 12,000,000 on the Patriots (yes I know it is simpistic but for brevity its the same effect) they are at risk of $2,000,000 but the collect $2,200,000 in vig. They want to drive the next 2,000,0000 to Bmore, so they are walking away with 2,400,000 no matter who wins, not to NE so they also have 4,000,000 (the difference) bet on the outcome.
Quote:
Vegas likes to be somewhat balanced by sometimes adjusting the lines a few points to compensate for unbalanced bets, but in general, they begin with the number that accurately represents the most likely outcome of the game. You obviously don't know how it works.
Vegas is begging people to bet on the Ravens. It's usually better to run the other way when that's the case. Because they think there's a chance NE blows them out.
Bingo
Vegas typically knows exactly what theyre doing. Its the exact same spread as the Broncos game.
I don't understand why everyone is saying the Ravens got lucky to beat the Broncos (who apparently didn't show up.) TWO special teams touchdowns in one game for the Broncos. Even if Denver completely stunk up the field for the rest of the game, that's a lot to overcome. I understand we all love our Patriots, but let's give credit where it's due. Even had the Ravens lost last week by not completing the miracle pass, it was still a tremendous effort in a really tough stadium. Perhaps you don't recall, but everyone said the Ravens age would be a factor playing in the altitude... well, the Broncos scored just 21 points on offense in 77 minutes and couldn't move the ball in the game's final 20+ minutes.
Manning isnt the same guy.
Ive been watching him as the weeks wore on and could see his arm wasnt the same. The zip in his passes aint there no more. For as bad as Manning (INT and Fumble) and the Broncos played they still had a shot to win the game. Furthermore, the Broncos defense was a bunch of frauds who feasted on terrible offense like KC, SD, OAK, CLEV,TB. Champ Bailey was brutalized all day.
Quote:
Also, Indianapolis was a good opponent that won 11 games. I realize they're overrated, but let's not act like they were chopped liver.
Indy hung with Baltimore till the end of the 3rd quarter down by 1 score with a rookie QB, a run game and basically Reggie Wayne. Flacco completed 12 passes.
The one that I use, sportsbook.com, which is also probably the biggest or at least one of the top couple/few online sportsbooks in the world, has it down to an even 8 now.
NEP-8
Edit: Sorry, jmt57. I did not see your above previous post, my bad.
__________________
Patiently waiting to defend the next "bubble" player in this summer's training camp.....
these numbers are adjusting based on bets coming in...that's it...there's no "sometimes they do this to screw the Pats" paranoid delusions....you want the line to be 3 points, take your ten or twenty million lying around and throw it down on the Ravens
you guys see the 60 min episode with the worlds biggest bookie? He can move a line .5 all by himself if he wanted to. lives in cali i think? Billionaire i want to say
27Likes
Re: Honestly, how is the spread 9.5?
Linear Mode
