RodThePat

Vegas doesn't set the line based on film study, past matchups, or thorough analysis of how the game might unfold. Their intent is to come up with a line that is likely to result on a similar number of bets being placed on both teams. That's it. They try to gauge public perception of the matchup, not the football side of it.

SoCal Bong

It's good that you don't bet then, because if you think anything against the spread looks like almost guaranteed money then you wouldn't last a day, no offense.

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Sicilian

This is an important point that no one seems to ever remember. It has very little to do with what is likely to transpire, and more to do with providing incentives for the casual fans to pick the perceived underdog.

jmt57

While I do think the spread is a bit high, the 2012 Ravens defense does not resemble previous versions. What happened in previous years has no effect on what will happen Sunday. The 2012 versions of both teams are different from the 2007, 2009, 2010, and even 2011 versions.

The line is generally set to get an equal amount of money wagered on either side; I don't think there is much of a difference in the number of Pats fans (or haters) that gamble versus the number of Ravens fans (or haters) that gamble. Maybe it's as simple as Vegas handicappers having seen enough of the two teams and looked at enough stats to honestly think that's where the line should be?

Pure speculation: maybe Vegas is trying to sucker people into going with the Ravens, and looking to make a buck themselves?

PATSYLICIOUS

It's probably too high considering the mangnitude of the game and the rivalry but, this is a different Patriots team and a different Ravens team than before. By far the best Patriots defense Flacco/Rice have faced. The most vulnerable Ravens D Brady has ever faced (maybe not by much depending on just how close to full strength Lewis/Suggs/Ngata are).

If I were to guess I'd say the Pats win by double digits, but I wouldn't put money on it either way.

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BadMoFo

I think the spread is based on the probability that we can blow any game wide open at our home turf. It would be that way against any team coming into Foxboro, and I think it has been all year. It's no disrespect on the Ravens.

KontradictioN

I'm betting small on this one. $100 for the Patriots to cover in a friendly bet with one of my friends. IMO, the reason the spread is 9.5 is because the Ravens defense is old and has played more snaps than any defense left in the postseason.

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Brady_to_Moss

because i don't have a grand to bet?

AndyJohnson

What does what a bunch of other players wearing the jerseys in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 have to do with this game?


Again, those were different teams. Surely you don't think those results have any impact on this game do you?


The way they have been playing is losing 4 of their last 7.
They are a below average defense and we average 35 points a game.


But the answer is that the people who are making bets on the game are placing roughly even amounts on both teams at 9.5 points.

The pointspread has nothing to do with football analysis is has to do with how people are betting. At more than 9.5 most money would flow to Bmore, and 9 or less most money would flow to New England.

Ivan

This game is a really bad match-up for the ravens and a great match-up for NE.

1) It's a home Championship game, those obviously favor the home team greatly and in this case it allows the Patriots to run a their fast break offense against an old tired Ravens defense that has been on the field way too much lately. The Patriots are unbeaten in these games in their history.

2) The defensive match-ups pit the Patriots strengths against the Ravens weakness. There is no way the ravens LB's can stay with Welker and Hernandez and Lloyd should have a really good day against Williams. Additionally the Patriots run game has improved dramatically while the Ravens run D is a shell of its former self.

3) Ball control. Imo this is the biggest reason for giving a big edge to the Patriots. Joe Flacco is not a QB who is going to move the Ravens down the field with one first down after another, rather he is going to get a first down or two and go deep hoping for big plays. This plays right into the Patriots hands as the best way to beat the Patriots is to limit Brady's drive opportunities to less than 10, anything over that and he is going to hang 35 on the defense. If the Patriots have a big TOP advantage, which they should, then the only way Baltimore beats them is if Brady has a terrible day and/or the RB's cough the ball up repeatedly. In other words the Ravens are going to have to force a number of TO's or hope the Patriots fall apart.

The Ravens can win this week, any team that gets this far can, however the way this has set up works entirely in the Patriots favor. from home team falling right into their laps to the match-ups on the field this week this has set up perfectly for the Patriots to get themselves another shot at a Lombardi.


Patriots 35 Ravens 17