A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker? - Page 5 - New England Patriots Forums

***AndyJohnson*** · 01-01-2013, 11:11 AM

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Originally Posted by Ivan

Hmmmm, I wonder what is more important, winning more Super Bowls before Brady hangs them up or having a few million extra 4 years from now?

Screw winning more championships. Time to get rid of Welker, otherwise they won't be able to re-sign Brandon Bolden in 2015.

You seriously don't think that is the dynamic of the decision do you?

***resdubwhite*** · 01-01-2013, 11:16 AM

3/24 with 15 guaranteed should be a good deal for both sides.

PLEASE make it happen.

***AndyJohnson*** · 01-01-2013, 11:18 AM

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Originally Posted by patfanken

That's an interesting question. When you think about it this offense is constantly being reinvented. Pryor to the 2010 season the Pat were basically a 3 WR passing offense, attacking deep with Moss and underneath with Welker, with minimum contributions from the TE's and RB's. After 2010 the 2TE's offense appeared without the deep threat, but still a predominantly a passing attack. Then in 2013 the running attack appeared along with an outside the number threat, but still no true "deep threat" (whatever that means)

I don't want to belabor it, but I sincerely hope the Pats and Welker reach some accommodation that keeps him here for the next couple of years, and doesn't cripple their ability to maintain a prudent salary cap structure. However to think that this offense isn't capable of being productive without Wes Welker is ludicrous. In 2006, with the fewest offensive weapons in Brady's career (since 2002) the Pats were STILL the 11th most productive offense in the league.

Your argument is you want to change the MOST productive offense in the NFL because it could be the 11th most productive?

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Somehow I think, with Gronk, Hernandez, Llyodd and the most productive running attack we've had since Cory Dillon, (and this one might even be better because of its depth and versatility);the Pats offense wouldn't fall too far down the stats lists.

It isn't about stats. This offense has evolved into the best Brady has ever QBd. The focal point of the concept is a FA. Of course you could change and survive out of necessity, why do it out of choice?

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Personally the big question on Welker is not whether he's "worth" the money, but rather what is the long term effect tying up that kind of money will have on the rest of the team. Its a very delicate balance. EVERY big signing has to be weighed in that light.

I think having the best offense in the NFL is a good reason to spend money.

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It might not be his fault (due to injuries) but we can safely say that Logan Mankins hasn't been worth his contract the last 2 years. Injury potential IS a factor. I know Welker has been extraordinarily dependable the last 6 years, but Mankins was too. He hadn't missed a practice through 2010 in his career. Over the last 2 years there's hardly been a week when he hasn't been on the injury report. That's how fast things can change.

With that argument we should sign no one.

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We all talk about how great the last 3 draft have been. That's the good news. The bad news is that very quickly those guys are going to be coming up to FA, and that has to be prepared for, and the resignings we do this off season, will directly effect the ones we make in years going forward.

This isn't news.

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OT - a question - I know we had some obscene amount of dead money on the books this season (IIRC over $20MM). Does anyone know approximately what that number will be next season?

I think there were a few threads about this recently.

***AndyJohnson*** · 01-01-2013, 11:21 AM

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Originally Posted by PP2

Next to Brady, Welker is the the one player who knows our complicated offense inside out. He can release from any slot, and run any route off to perfection. More than a few times I've seen him release from the TE slot and execute like a TE to confuse the defense (a good example would be that first TD in the last game where he ran a seam to split the RZ cover 2). Not only does he know his own tree to perfection, he knows what everyone else does.

There is no question we pay him what he deserves, and if he, for some unlikely reason drops in production, he still deserves the money for the huge sacrifices he's made for us over the years, since '07. He continually puts his body on the line like nobody I've seen in all my years watching NFL football. This is one of the most toughest son of a ***** I've ever seen put on a football uniform.

I don't agree with paying as a thank you for the past, but I fully agree this is a player where the value he brings dramatically exceeds the risk of dropoff or injury.

Ivan · 01-01-2013, 11:27 AM

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Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

You seriously don't think that is the dynamic of the decision do you?

I think it is in Ken's mind, other than that I was being facetious. No one is talking about Welker getting 80 million dollars for 7 years, which given Welker's production would be a fair place for his agent to start, and I really believe that if the Patriots offered anything reasonable, which a deal like 4-40 certainly is, then Welker would sign in a heartbeat, and imo that would be a great deal for the Patriots. Although I certainly believe in being smart with the cap I also believe that now is the time to go all out for championships, as once Brady is gone that is going to become a much harder task to achieve. So even for those who worry about the cap i would suggest that their concerns in this instance are grossly misplaced, the real concern should be squandering the remainder of Brady's career simply to save a few million for signings that are a few years off. They can make up any difference simply by being more careful with their other moves, as the dead money figures Ken was referring to came from risky deals deals with Haynesworth and Ocho, and the wasted money on Fanene. Skimping on Welker is crazy imo, he is heading for the HOF if he keeps it up, and there is absolutely no indication that he won't, only the somewhat hysterical insistence that he is going to drop off the cliff that the Welker haters have been perpetuating for the past 3 years.

This team has everything in place to be dominant for the rest of Brady's career, they shouldn't even consider jeopardizing that by removing his best and most reliable weapon. Pay the Man!

Ivan · 01-01-2013, 11:33 AM

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Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

I don't agree with paying as a thank you for the past, but I fully agree this is a player where the value he brings dramatically exceeds the risk of dropoff or injury.

I don't think you pay for past production but it is certainly the gauge used for future deals. The only time a player is payed based solely on speculation is their rookie deal, after that they are payed based upon how they have performed as pro's. And in Welker's case there are a good number of posters in this forum who have been insisting for the past few years that changes in the offense, injury, size, and age were all going to cause Welker's production to drop off, and they were wrong 3 years ago, 2 years ago, and this season. As Jerry Rice said, he's in the prime of his career.

The_Riddler · 01-01-2013, 11:40 AM

It's kind of interesting in that we really have two of the same interior slot players in Welker and Edelman. Prior to getting hurt, Edelman and Brady were really starting to get a feel for one another and to be honest I think the more they play together, the better that chemistry would become, I could see it matching the Welker chemistry given time.

Dewayne Bowe is that deep threat that we simply still do not have. He's that other "Go To" guy outside the hashes that we still don't seem to have. Bowe hasn't had a real QB throwing to him since he's gotten in this league. Can you imagine what he would do with Brady. He's young, Welker isn't at this point. To me, I put those heavy cap dollars into the younger player who fits a glaring need.

Edelmen at his paultry salary could easily slip into the slot role held by Welker and play that role pretty effectively.

Bowe/Edelman vs Welker/player X going forward, I'll take option one.

Ivan · 01-01-2013, 11:46 AM

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Originally Posted by resdubwhite

3/24 with 15 guaranteed should be a good deal for both sides.

PLEASE make it happen.

Great deal for the Patriots, not for Welker, he would get 12 guaranteed for 1 with the tag and he will get about twice that if he goes to market. I realize Patriot fans want everyone to sign on the cheap but at a certain point they do need to realize there is a correlation between production and worth. the only 2 receivers who have produced like Welker over the past 3 years are CJ and Fitzgerald, who get 250 million between them, suggesting 20% of one of those deals is fair is ludicrous.

***AndyJohnson*** · 01-01-2013, 11:46 AM

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Originally Posted by The_Riddler

It's kind of interesting in that we really have two of the same interior slot players in Welker and Edelman. Prior to getting hurt, Edelman and Brady were really starting to get a feel for one another and to be honest I think the more they play together, the better that chemistry would become, I could see it matching the Welker chemistry given time.

Dewayne Bowe is that deep threat that we simply still do not have. He's that other "Go To" guy outside the hashes that we still don't seem to have. Bowe hasn't had a real QB throwing to him since he's gotten in this league. Can you imagine what he would do with Brady. He's young, Welker isn't at this point. To me, I put those heavy cap dollars into the younger player who fits a glaring need.

Edelmen at his paultry salary could easily slip into the slot role held by Welker and play that role pretty effectively.

Bowe/Edelman vs Welker/player X going forward, I'll take option one.

Oh God, not the Edelman can easily replace Welker argument.
Just to address your claim that Brady and Edelman were developing the same chemistry as Brady and Welker, here were Edelmans reception totals in his last 6 games 2, 1, 0, 5, 2, 1. Thats 11 in 6 games and 6 in total in 5 of them.
Sorry to interupt your theory with facts.

***AndyJohnson*** · 01-01-2013, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivan

I don't think you pay for past production but it is certainly the gauge used for future deals. The only time a player is payed based solely on speculation is their rookie deal, after that they are payed based upon how they have performed as pro's. And in Welker's case there are a good number of posters in this forum who have been insisting for the past few years that changes in the offense, injury, size, and age were all going to cause Welker's production to drop off, and they were wrong 3 years ago, 2 years ago, and this season. As Jerry Rice said, he's in the prime of his career.

You have to read what I was responding to, which said that even if he drops off, the contract would be a thank you for what he did until now.