Deus Irae

Another classic example:

The score was 35-7 at the half, and the game was clearly over. What was the run/pass ratio at that time?

2/3
2/5
1/3
2/3
4/4
1/2
1/1
0/5

13:26

And that includes the runs where Hernandez took the ball as a RB.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots - January 14th, 2012 - Pro-Football-Reference.com

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Snake Eyes

The issue isn't about whether TFB passes a lot, the issue is in telegraphing that it will be a pass.

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RodThePat

In today's NFL anytime you see a team score 30+ points, it's incredibly rare that they accomplished that by running the football. when you see a huge point total and a similar number of running and passing plays, you can rest assured that most of those runs came to close the game and run the clock out. There were plenty of games in 2007 in which the Patriots ended up with a very balanced spread in run/pass, but that was because they were up 28 with 12 minutes to go, and so it was Kyle-Eckel-up-the-gut time.

mayoclinic

Here's a correlation for you:

- 2012 games in which TB has attempted 40 or more passes: Seattle (58), Arizona (46), first Jets game (42), Baltimore (41), Miami (40).
- Lowest scoring Pats games of 2012: Arizona (18), Seattle (23), Miami (23), 1st NY Jets game (29), Baltimore (30).

The 5 lowest scoring games are the 5 games in which we have attempted the most passes. Just a correlation, but hey.

Here's some other possible correlations for you (regular season only):

- Brady's regular season record: 133-38 (78%)
- Number of games in Brady's career in which he has thrown 40 or more pass attempts: 39
- Pats won-loss record in games in which Brady has attempted 40 or more pass attempts: 25-14 (64%)
- Number of games in Brady's career in which the Pats have scored 30 or more points: 76
- Pats won-loss record in games in Brady's career in which the Pats have scored 30 or more points: 73-3 (96%)
- Number of games in Brady's career in which the Pats have scored 30 or more points while he has attempted 40 or more passes: 17

Brady has an overall winning percentage of 78%, which increases to 96% if the Pats score 30 or more points but decreases to 64% if he attempts 40 or more throws. On only 22% of the games in which Brady and the Pats scored 30 or more points did he throw 40 or more times (17/76). On only 44% of the games in which Brady has attempted 40 or more throws have the Pats scored 30 or more points (17/39).

All meaningless correlation, I know. Brady should just spread it out and throw it as many times as possible against the Texans. After all, there's proof that that's what will work, right?

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Deus Irae

Why do you keep ignoring the evidence that everyone else is putting forward, while still arguing something that's not even on point?

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mayoclinic

I wasn't using that game as an example favoring even run-pass ratio. Andy had asked for the playoff breakdowns, so I gave it to him, unfiltered.

To be clear, I am NOT advocating the demise of the spread offense, or that we uniformly distribute the run/pass balance all the time. That makes no sense. There is clearly a time for situational scheming, time to take advantage of matchups, and lots of time to spread things out. We're a pass-first team, and we will always be that way. Brady is our greatest strength. I don't think anyone is advocating otherwise.

It's very hard to show "causation" in anything, and a lot is subjective. But my perception is that the Pats' offense has erred at times on the side of getting too unbalanced, too predictable, and too limited. Can I prove it? No. I doubt anyone can. Obviously, our offense and our team has been extraordinarily successful, and no one wants to negate that success.

I'm not advocating "ground and pound" against Houston, or in general. But I think that it would be a big mistake to ignore the running game and spread things out too much, and an even bigger mistake to limit our receiving options as much as we did against Miami.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

mayoclinic

What evidence? There's just your opinion, which you think is the word of God. Waste of time.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

Deus Irae

And I showed that game as a classic example of how the final run/pass ratio is often completely misreading. What ended up looking like a fairly "balanced" ratio was 2:1 pass when the game was in doubt.

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76Texan

If I may add my two cents since we also discussed this over at the Texans board.

In the NFL nowadays, it's always about the pass.
Especially with teams running more out of the spread, you have more weapons to receive the ball; the number of passes attempts for those teams will be higher than teams that run more out of the 2 back offense simply because of personnel.

As a whole, you're not going to spend a ton of money on guys that can catch pass to have them blocking for the running game. The defense knows that but it's all about execution. You're going to do what you do best.

The Texans, for example, is thought of as a running team, but we actually pass more in the first half with Kubiak.

For a team like the Pats to come out throwing even more is nothing out of the ordinary.

There's a minus though if you either score or give up the ball too quickly, especially against a good team.

In Peyton's last year in Indy, for example, the Texans kept the ball for a long time, even after Manning had led his team to scores.

Basically, I had looked up teams that won SBs.
The majority of them have a good defense and a good running game.
Even if they have a good passing game, the run game can't be ignored.

It doesn't matter whether you set up the run with the pass or vice versa.
To win championship football, you have a better odd having both.

Deus Irae

The Broncos game isn't "opinion". The Packers game isn't "opinion".

Meanwhile, you're changing your argument to "40 passes", knowing full well that you're including games where the Patriots must pass because of the game situation (score/time). If you want to talk about a waste of time, you need look no further than your own arguments on this subject.

Let's stay focused. The Patriots are 36-8 in the past 2+ regular seasons. Which games have been lost because of the run/pass ratio?

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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
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