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Old 12-06-2012, 10:37 AM   #31
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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Every year people crack out the "balance" nonsense. Every year, others of us end up having to explain the difference between correlation and causation, and having to demonstrate, time and again, that the reason you get more runs in wins is because you're running more while ahead, not because you're balanced while even or behind. How many times do we have to go through this before the "balance" people stop acting as if they've got an actual point when it comes to the Patriots offense?

They don't. Balance looks nice on the stat sheet. It's generally meaningless in games involving the Patriots offense.
And every year I think you're full of it on this issue. I respect your opinion Deus, and I don't need to be lectured to on the basics of correlation vs. causaiton, thank you very much, but I've been watching the Pats for a long time, and I firmly believe that whenever I've seen them get too spread out that they end up becoming predictable and too easily stopped. It's happened again several times this year. We're just going to disagree on this one - you think it's nonsense, and I don't.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:44 AM   #32
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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This whole predictable argument is bunk. Even if the Pats threw 100% of the time, it doesn't mean the offense is predictable. There are a vast array of things you can do just throwing the ball.
This is really not true because if the offense becomes one dimensional, the defense can nickel, dime, or even quarter Brady into the ground. It really doesn't matter how many looks you give a defense that's in the dime or quarter because all they have to do is clog the field, disrupt routes, and generally just threaten. The defense can cheat.

With a healthy run game, you add an entire dimension of adjustments, for example if Hern lines up in the slot, you don't know if he's lining up to release or run-block. Also A good run game forces the defense to play true, to play closer to the line.

Also having a good balance opens up the play-action which is one of our best weapons. Most of our biggest gains over the years have come out of the play-action.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:47 AM   #33
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

I respect your opinion Deus, and I don't need to be lectured to on the basics of correlation vs. causaiton, thank you very much

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Old 12-06-2012, 10:50 AM   #34
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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Originally Posted by Deus Irae View Post
Every year people crack out the "balance" nonsense. Every year, others of us end up having to explain the difference between correlation and causation, and having to demonstrate, time and again, that the reason you get more runs in wins is because you're running more while ahead, not because you're balanced while even or behind. How many times do we have to go through this before the "balance" people stop acting as if they've got an actual point when it comes to the Patriots offense?

They don't. Balance looks nice on the stat sheet. It's generally meaningless in games involving the Patriots offense.
The point is not that balance looks "nice on the stat sheet," it's what the outcome is. Look at our W-L record when the run-pass ration is in balance and when it's not.

Also the idea that our passing establishes the run game is pure nonsense because of the number of losses that we have that exceed a TD or so is far and few (which would justify the high amount of passing to try and catch up).
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:55 AM   #35
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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And every year I think you're full of it on this issue. I respect your opinion Deus, and I don't need to be lectured to on the basics of correlation vs. causaiton, thank you very much, but I've been watching the Pats for a long time, and I firmly believe that whenever I've seen them get too spread out that they end up becoming predictable and too easily stopped. It's happened again several times this year. We're just going to disagree on this one - you think it's nonsense, and I don't.
I don't "think" it's nonsense. Multiple people here have proven that it's nonsense as far as the Patriots are concerned. It's not really even a debatable issue anymore.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:57 AM   #36
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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So what you're saying is Seattle, Arizona, and Miami for alot of that game (the 3 times I can recall that we've gone extreme pass heavy this season) overplayed for the run a vast majority of those games, in essense forcing Tom Brady to beat them?
To an extent. Of course how good they are goes into the discussion. If a team can defend the run well with 6 in the box, it makes your play calling different than if they need 8 in the box to stop the run. In our offense a lot has to do with how they matchup to our personell. Remember our skill position guys and groupings are unique. Of course the strength and weakness of the opponent goes into play calling.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:57 AM   #37
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The point is not that balance looks "nice on the stat sheet," it's what the outcome is. Look at our W-L record when the run-pass ration is in balance and when it's not.

Also the idea that our passing establishes the run game is pure nonsense because of the number of losses that we have that exceed a TD or so is far and few (which would justify the high amount of passing to try and catch up).
As you know, because you've been one of the people who's had to have it shown to him year after year, the Patriots running totals are frequently padded when they run to grind clock. Many of the games that your side likes to cite to as "proof" have been shown to be games where the run/pass balance was dramatically titled towards pass until the game was in hand and it was time to kill clock. Your "balance' argument has been blown out of the water, year after year.

It simply doesn't apply to the Patriots offense.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:58 AM   #38
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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I don't "think" it's nonsense. Multiple people here have proven that it's nonsense. It's not even a debatable issue.
Good. Because I'm not debating it with you. I still think you're full of it.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:58 AM   #39
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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And every year I think you're full of it on this issue. I respect your opinion Deus, and I don't need to be lectured to on the basics of correlation vs. causaiton, thank you very much, but I've been watching the Pats for a long time, and I firmly believe that whenever I've seen them get too spread out that they end up becoming predictable and too easily stopped. It's happened again several times this year. We're just going to disagree on this one - you think it's nonsense, and I don't.
And in tons of games they spread out the field and are unstoppable.
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Old 12-06-2012, 11:31 AM   #40
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Default Re: I hope Mcdaniels sticks with the Run against the Texans

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Originally Posted by Deus Irae View Post
Every year people crack out the "balance" nonsense. Every year, others of us end up having to explain the difference between correlation and causation, and having to demonstrate, time and again, that the reason you get more runs in wins is because you're running more while ahead, not because you're balanced while even or behind. How many times do we have to go through this before the "balance" people stop acting as if they've got an actual point when it comes to the Patriots offense?

They don't. Balance looks nice on the stat sheet. It's generally meaningless in games involving the Patriots offense.
The flaw in your argument is that in those games the "balance" was achieved by a disproportionate number of run plays after a lead had been built. However, my memory of these games is that the Pats run/pass ratio while building their leads was pretty consistent with the overall ratio. These are the Belichick Patriots after all. I only wish they took the air out of the ball a little more when they are protecting a lead.

Truth is that this offense is at its best when using its full arsenal. I hate it when they come into a game having convinced themselves that they can't run a ball against a certain defense. Who knows that you can't on that given Sunday. Tying one arm behind your back is rarely a good strategy.

Personally, I hope they run every play Monday night out of the shotgun with 5 wide. That way, when it doesn't work, they'll learn to use their entire offense when they matchup again in the playoffs
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