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Old 10-29-2012, 12:30 PM   #1
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Default Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

Just curious if there are any sabermetric types out there that want to attack this question. Who had a better game yesterday, in terms of giving their team a better chance to win? This is NOT based on observing the game, but rather, it is based on the statistics of these two players only. It also not based on Romo, Brady, supporting casts, coaching, or outcomes. It is more of a philosophical question. If you saw both of these stat lines and knew nothing about the game, which player's production would you presume led to a greater chance of victory?

Also, touchdowns are irrelevant for the sake of this analysis.

Rob Gronkowski- 13 targets, 8 receptions, 146 yards
Yards per target: 11.23; Yards per reception: 18.3


Jason Witten-- 22 targets, 18 receptions, 167 yards
Yards per target: 7.59; Yards per reception: 9.28


I began thinking about this last year before the Super Bowl when Giants fans argued that Victor Cruz was a better slot receiver than Wes Welker because his YPR and YPT was higher, leading them to believe that Cruz is more effective. I thought this was probably correct, yet I also thought there is something to be said for moving the chains more consistently by picking up more positive plays.

What do you think?
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:35 PM   #2
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

The Pats won and the Cowboys lost, and Gronk was an integral part of the blowout win, so Gronk.
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:36 PM   #3
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Ice_Brady View Post
Just curious if there are any sabermetric types out there that want to attack this question. Who had a better game yesterday, in terms of giving their team a better chance to win? This is NOT based on observing the game, but rather, it is based on the statistics of these two players only. It also not based on Romo, Brady, supporting casts, coaching, or outcomes. It is more of a philosophical question. If you saw both of these stat lines and knew nothing about the game, which player's production would you presume led to a greater chance of victory?

Also, touchdowns are irrelevant for the sake of this analysis.

Rob Gronkowski- 13 targets, 8 receptions, 146 yards
Yards per target: 11.23; Yards per reception: 18.3

Jason Witten-- 22 targets, 18 receptions, 167 yards
Yards per target: 7.59; Yards per reception: 9.28

I began thinking about this last year before the Super Bowl when Giants fans argued that Victor Cruz was a better slot receiver than Wes Welker because his YPR and YPT was higher, leading them to believe that Cruz is more effective. I thought this was probably correct, yet I also thought there is something to be said for moving the chains more consistently by picking up more positive plays.

What do you think?
Gronkowskis team won, Wittens did not.
Stats accumulated while losing are not as good as stats accumulated while winning.
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:37 PM   #4
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyJohnson View Post
Gronkowskis team won, Wittens did not.
Stats accumulated while losing are not as good as stats accumulated while winning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mayoclinic View Post
The Pats won and the Cowboys lost, and Gronk was an integral part of the blowout win, so Gronk.
Near-simultaneous posts.
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:38 PM   #5
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

Witten also dropped at least one pass in crunch time.
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:44 PM   #6
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

Uh... Gronk had two scores, Witten zero. No contest.
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:46 PM   #7
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

This is NOT based on observing the game, but rather, it is based on the statistics of these two players only. It also not based on Romo, Brady, supporting casts, coaching, or outcomes. It is more of a philosophical question. If you saw both of these stat lines and knew nothing about the game, which player's production would you presume led to a greater chance of victory?

Also, touchdowns are irrelevant for the sake of this analysis.


Can anyone read?

Last edited by Ice_Ice_Brady; 10-29-2012 at 12:50 PM..
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:58 PM   #8
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Ice_Brady View Post
Just curious if there are any sabermetric types out there that want to attack this question. Who had a better game yesterday, in terms of giving their team a better chance to win? This is NOT based on observing the game, but rather, it is based on the statistics of these two players only. It also not based on Romo, Brady, supporting casts, coaching, or outcomes. It is more of a philosophical question. If you saw both of these stat lines and knew nothing about the game, which player's production would you presume led to a greater chance of victory?

Also, touchdowns are irrelevant for the sake of this analysis.

Rob Gronkowski- 13 targets, 8 receptions, 146 yards
Yards per target: 11.23; Yards per reception: 18.3


Jason Witten-- 22 targets, 18 receptions, 167 yards
Yards per target: 7.59; Yards per reception: 9.28


I began thinking about this last year before the Super Bowl when Giants fans argued that Victor Cruz was a better slot receiver than Wes Welker because his YPR and YPT was higher, leading them to believe that Cruz is more effective. I thought this was probably correct, yet I also thought there is something to be said for moving the chains more consistently by picking up more positive plays.

What do you think?
Based on your qualifications in this post, it's rather obvious to see that you're trying to lean posters toward voting for Witten.
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Old 10-29-2012, 12:58 PM   #9
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

Whitten probably is the 'correct' choice, but stats will give different answers depending upon how they weight things. I'll just note a couple of things about Whitten's game, since I'm sure others here will cover the Gronk stuff:

Whitten had half of his team's receptions on just over a third of the attempts. Also, a lot of Whitten's targets/catches were on first down, which consistently put the Cowboys in good second down position.
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Old 10-29-2012, 01:00 PM   #10
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Default Re: Rob Gronkowski versus Jason Witten: Who had the better game?

18 receptions in a game is very remarkable. Plus with 9+ yards per reception, should lead to a team effectively moving the chains. The only way to lose after that type of performance is to give the ball up.

So, I'd say what Witten did was better for his team to win the game and I'd call him the fed ex- by air player of the week over Gronk.

But, Gronk got 2 touchdowns and had a better fantasy day and ultimately contributed more to a team victory and I won't be complaining.
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