mayoclinic

Nice list.

I think that the bolded statement is the most important one. There is a tradeoff between cutting a player too soon (before they have had time to be evaluated, to learn the system, or to develop) and keeping them too long (after they have demonstrated a lack of ability or fit). I don't think it's unreasonable to keep players drafted in the first 4 round at least into their 1st season. The Pats seem as decisive as any team about cutting losses with relatively high picks who underperform. Chad Jackson, Kevin O'Connell and Tyrone McKenzie were cut pretty darn fast given their initial draft status.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

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Deus Irae

I think we may read a bit too much into single/a few examples. We don't do it in trades as much, because we don't see as many of them, but the Chad Johnson trade shows the team still willing to take the risk, even giving up picks in the process.

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Elijah

Does anyone know of any rookies taken before round 5 that were cut the same year they were drafted? I originally thought Mills was one of them but turns out he stayed on the roster his rookie year before he got waived.

Deus Irae

I forgot to put you back on ignore, so I can see this post. I'll keep you off it as long as we can remain civil.

Every player you listed here made the team, even if it was via the IR. The theory holds up, to this point, even against your purported examples.

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- Marcus Aurelius

Deus Irae

Kareem Brown was waived in November of his rookie year, but he made the original 'final 53'.

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mayoclinic

The Pats cut Tyrone McKenzie in 2010 in favor of UDFA Dane Fletcher, even though McKenzie hadn't played a regular season game for them and was a 2009 3rd round draft pick. They cut Taylor Price in 2011 in favor of UDFA Tiquan Underwood even though Price was a 2010 3rd round draft pick. They cut Rich Ohnrberger in favor of UDFA Ryan Wendell in 2010 even though Ohrnberger was a 2009 4th round draft pick. They traded away former 1st round pick Laurence Maroney in favor of UDFA BenJarvus Green-Ellis during the 2010 season.

I think it's pretty clearly established that draft status does not guarantee roster position on the Patriots. Does anyone believe that Jermaine Cunningham's 2nd round draft status will give him an advantage over 6th round pick Markell Carter? If it comes down to one spot, whoever plays better and shows that they can do more for the team will have the advantage, regardless of where they were selected. I don't think that that is the case with every team in the NFL. And it's important for signing depth FAs and UDFAs - players know they can win a spot and playing time based on their performance. As I noted in another thread, Seattle tried to sign Nick McDonald off of the Pats' PS last year, but McDonald's agent convinced him to stay with the Pats. 4 weeks later he was starting against Indy. Rob Ninkovich was signed as a LS and to be an extra body at LB. Now he's a key player on defense. Players know they will have a fair competition with the Pats, including the chance to move up the depth chart.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

Deus Irae

I believe that, if it were the rookie year for Cunningham, it would absolutely give him an advantage.

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- Marcus Aurelius

patchick

It seems like an unnecessarily rigid criterion to say the players couldn't even make it out of their first training camp. Honestly, that might go beyond "cutting your losses" to knee-jerk decision making.

Isn't the real question whether the Patriots are willing to cut their loses with unpromising drafted players faster than most teams, rather than some arbitrary combo of draft cutoffs and roster cutoffs?

Unfortunately, a meaningful comparison to other teams would be a hellish amount of work. Plus how do you distinguish between a team that's free from the sunk costs fallacy vs. a team that just made a lot of lousy draft pick? Strange to think of any metric where cutting high picks is a positive!

patchick

That seems reasonable to me, since:

A. Just a few months removed from the draft, the potential you showed in college is still somewhat relevant;

B. A 6th-round pick is much, much more likely to clear waivers to the practice squad than a 2nd-round pack;

C. Cutting a 2nd-round pick before his first game will incur some significant cap acceleration.

Elijah

I'm just curious about whether or not it should be assumed that a fourth round pick will make the 53.