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Is Keeping Hernandez and Gronkowski the Reason Welker is Without an Extension?
By: Ian Logue

When you assemble as much talent as the New England Patriots have over the past few seasons, eventually it reaches a point where tough decisions have to be made because you can't keep everybody....

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Nunchucks

Welker is a great player, but the Patriots offense could be more dynamic from the I formation.

With two true outside receivers, two TEs, a RB, and a FB on the field, the Patriots offense can truly do anything. They can spread teams out with Hernandez and the RB, they can run with power, play-action and go deep.

Having Welker on the field hurts the Patriots personnel groupings. He is a slot receiver who often lines up on the outside because the patriots don't have two outside receivers. Playing in 3 receiver sets cuts down on the number of "big guys" they can put on the field, they can't use a FB and if they want to use 2 TEs, Welker goes to the outside or Hernandez goes to the outside, which is less than ideal IMO.....or they can go empty backfield, which makes it difficult to offer the threat of running the ball.

I formation is where it is at, Welker while an excellent player, isn't suited for an offense that the Patriots are moving towards with two dynamic TEs...it isn't the contract so much as the flexibility that they lose by having Welker on the field.

mayoclinic

When I suggested that I was ridiculed for "amateur over analysis". So obviously it can't be a factor.

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eagle eye

Why did they franchise him then?

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Nunchucks

Because he is an excellent WR, but if you had to choose, would you choose a two TE set that features Gronk and Hernandes or an aging Welker?

mayoclinic

Because this year there is no impact from paying Welker on Gronkandez. In 2013 the Pats will probably try to extend at least one of them, so there will be more competition for $$. And in 2014, paying Welker big money could mean letting one of them go. And given Hernandez' hybrid role, the team may end up treating him as a WR from a positional cap allocation perspective.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

mayoclinic

To give some sense of what extending Gronk and Hernandez may take, consider the following:

1. The highest paid "non-movement" TE (or FlexEnd, to use OTG's terminology) include Dallas' Jason Witten (5 year/$37M deal with $19M guaranteed signed in 2011), Antonio Gates (5 year/$36.175M deal with $20.4M guaranteed signed in 2010), Heath Miller (6 year/$36.3M deal signed in 2009) and Tony Gonzalez (signed a 1 year/$7M extension for 2012). It's hard not to see Gronk exceeding those deals, probably by a substantial amount. $8M/year would seem like the lower limit, with $10M/year still reasonable compared to what WRs with similar production make.

2. Green Bay's Jermichael Finley completed his rookie deal last year. His 4 year production totalled 1815 yards from scrimmage (all receiving), 137 receptions and 15 TDs. He was coming off a broken leg. But he still received the franchise tag designation from the Packers. Finley argued that he should be paid as a WR since he lines up as a WR a significant portion of the time. Green Bay - like the Pats a fairly conservative organization financially - disagreed. The two sides eventually decided on a "compromise" 2 year $14M deal to give them time to sort out his true market value.

Packers, Jermichael Finley make deal with 2-year contract | National Football Post

In comparison, Aaron Hernandez in only 2 years has accounted for 1565 yards from scrimmage (92 rushing and 1473 receiving), 124 receptions and 13 TDs. I think it's pretty hard to imagine Hernandez being extended for anything less than the $7M/year that Finley got, and probably more.

It's hard to imaging the Pats paying 3 WR/TEs upwards of $7M/year in 2014. And assuming that Hernandez' money is allocated to the WR group because of the way he is used, that would put Hernandez in direct competition with the WR group, including Welker.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

Brady_to_Moss

i just pray to all that is holy we keep both Gronk and Hernandez...

Palm Beach Pats Fan

I just pray to all that is holy we keep Wes, Gronk, and Hernandez, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd most productive and most efficient so-called skill position players on the team, outside of their QB

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UK_Pat37

Been saying this for a long time. Welker isn't part of the future plan. Reflects in his contract offers.

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