mayoclinic

I'm sure Kraft, BB and most everyone in the organization would like WW to be a Patriot for life. Who wouldn't? But at what cost? That's the key question. I'm sure the Pats would have liked to have retained Richard Seymour, too. But it became clear that they weren't going to be able to keep both Seymour and Wilfork, and they made a choice.

I can't speak for others, but to clarify my view:

1. WW is the greatest slot receiver of all time, and a tremendous asset to the team. He's also a perfect representative of the Patriots.

2. 2011 was probably a career year for Welker. He set highs in receiving and total yardage and TDs, and was close to his career highs in receptions and YPC. Particularly given the additional weapons on offense, it is reasonable to expect that Welker probably won't replicate those numbers in 2012. As Ian points out in his article, Welker's 2011 numbers started off at an incredible pace, and then tailed off considerably over the second half of the season.

3. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that the Pats' offense could benefit form some more diversification in terms of how the offensive weapons are used. Welker never made Brady throw the ball to him and he was always an unselfish player, but he was targed the 2nd most of any receiver in the NFL in 2011, and that's probably too much. While I don't think that the offense would be better off without Welker, I do think that the offense could imrove overall by changing some of it's focus, which would involve reducing Welker's role.

So I don't think it's a stretch to say that Welker's role moving forward will probably not be quite as great as it has been over the past 5 years, though no one knows for sure. Welker's role to some extent has been so great because he's been so great, and if he proves himself better than the alternatives it will be hard not to justify targeting him. But I'm guessing that we'll see a moderately reduced role over the next 2 years, assuming he remains with the team, and probably more of a reduced role after that. The question becomes, how much is it reasonably to pay beyond the next 2 years for that likely role, given the other contract priorities on offense?

I'd love to see Welker a Patriot for life. But I wouldn't be surprise to see that "life" limited to 1-2 years, either, unless he's willing to take a markedly reduced cap hit beyond 2013.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

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UK_Pat37

Because he's going to come out and tell the truth, if what a fair few people have been saying is true? Of course he isn't. Of course the team want him for life, but for as much as Welker is thinking? No chance. They'd love to keep him until he can retired because he's a great guy and player, but unless he buys into the Patriots line of thinking (which not many players can do) then he's not going to be here for more than one more year.

The Pats never discuss their logic behind their deals. I'm sure they'd like to keep a lot of players for life...it sadly doesn't work that way or as easily as some like to think.

Sorry to burst the Welker bubble!

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LivinLovin&Breathin_Brady

Kraft is just saying all the right things. Doesn't mean he means it, it's a business after all.

If Ochocinco picks up the playbook and finally understands the offense this year, I think Welker will be traded...to the Jets for Tebow(for future purposes). Then again I'm not even sure if Gronk is gonna be GRONK! with that ankle injury. I guess holding Welker for one more year ain't bad.

borg

That may be....but if the team has to prioritize, I stack 'em
1) Freak....Gronk...6'-7" target
2) Mismatch nightmare...Hernandez
3) Slot guy 5'-1" target getting same production that Troy Brown had

On top of that....the above 3 work the middle of the field which at times has been a debilitating bunch up vs certain Ds....Jets/Giants. Weighing priorities, assigning values, and shifting resources....I have Welker as easiest to replace...and I'm not trying to replace 100 catches. Achieving a WR production balance has some value

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Deus Irae

I'm not going into the Seymour thing again. I find that the arguments justifying the move are not persuasive, and I'll leave it at that.

I'd say that the Brady robot is more what BB considers a perfect representative of the Patriots than the more playful Welker, but that's just a small thing.

Numbers for offenses in general tailed off over the course of the season, and the Patriots were clearly exploiting matchup weaknesses (teams played in the second half included Chiefs/Eagles/Giants/Redskins/Broncos/Dolphins/Jets, which were generally much better on the corners than at safety) so I don't see this as an issue. As for the new players coming in, there's still just going to be one football, and all the new players should also mean that Gronk's numbers take a dip, too. Using the logic being tossed around in this thread, that should mean that Gronk's fit to be traded or at least given a low-ball contract offer.

Gronk had 90 catches and Hernandez had 79. That's 169 catches from the tight ends. Branch, a player that some seem to forget played for the Patriots last year, had 51 catches as the 'other' starting receiver. Now, it's quite possible that we'll see a 20+ reception dip in Welker's numbers and a 20 reception uptick in the Branch position numbers, but Lloyd's career high is 77 catches, so that would be closing in on that mark. It's also quite possible that we'll see a 20 reception dip in Gronk's numbers, or a 10-20 reception dip in Hernandez numbers. The approach the team will take seems likely to be similar to 2007, where the Patriots were tossing out a 5-man 'receiving' group of Welker, Moss, Stallworth, Gaffney and Watson, and still getting Faulk 47 receptions. Even in that season, though, Welker had 112 catches, so making the equation of "More options = Welker's much less useful" has no basis in the history of the Patriots with Welker on the team. If the team started throwing the ball around enough that Welker ended up in the 90-100 catch range, he'd still be worth a very nice contract.

It's not unreasonable to say that the Patriots offense could benefit from any number of things, including throwing the ball to Welker more/less/same.

That makes no sense to me, at all. The offense put up historic numbers on the back of that "too much".

The offense could improve in many different ways. The problem with your argument is that you're taking a personal preference and acting as if it's significant. It's not. The Patriots offense was so good that it carried the team to the Super Bowl. It was limited in its ability to stretch the field middle-deep, and that's been dealt with. This need for "improvement" elsewhere in the passing game is mythical. People seem to be confusing "would be nice" with "really needed".

Given that he's been setting and shattering records in the past 5 years, that's a safe bet, but a meaningless one as well. It's not a stretch to make the same sort of guesses about Brady's next 5 years, either. That doesn't mean you short Brady, or ditch him.

In football, it's generally best to make your best players your priority. In essence, you're trying to make an argument for doing the opposite. I reject that argument.

I expect that he'll get a 3-4 year deal at good/very good, though not elite, money. If the Patriots are stupid enough to let him get away, that'll be on them, and it'll make the offense easier to defend.

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Deus Irae

The anti-Welker people have been getting it wrong for a while. You, being one of them, aren't bursting any bubbles.

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ctpatsfan77

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UK_Pat37

Because putting 11 men up to the box and man handling him isn't easy? On the contrary, it was almost too easy at times last year. He had some great moments, but there were weeks we were wondering where on earth the offense was, especially at the start of games.

Where was the elite-ness of Wes Welker and his game breaking ability there? When we went through those phases, and I was calling it out all through last season, I was looking for Welker and what he was doing and he was struggling to get off the line.

I really don't want to look like I hate or am trying to tarnish Welker here because I'm not, but he;s not a natural split end and I often wonder what our offense would be like without the vast weapons we have had the luxury of having if we had solely Welker...

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PatsWickedPissah

Bobby,
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime, you just might find, you get what you need.

This Welk fan is "evolving" his opinion to the view that Welk is only gonna get a 2 year deal from the Pats. The franchise is focused on keeping 2 healthy TE stars long term.

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Deus Irae

There's so much fail here that it's not really worth delving into. Suffice it to say that Brady being injured contributed mightily to the early game struggles.

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