AzPatsFan

Fans are predictable and some types never seem to change. The first type falls in love with some FA star who may or may not fit the Patriots, and dream of him wearing the Flying Elvis.

The Second type is the self annointed draft guru, and unacknowledged GM genius, in their own eyes. These types of fans can always find a unheralded collegian who is virtually certain to be a super duper star when taken as a UDFA. Or fall in love with a collegian who will not fall outside the Top Ten. These fans then complain that Belichick will not trade away all his picks and wreck his economic roster, to go up and get him.

Both of these types of fans consider Belichick a dolt, or an incipient Alzheimer's patient, and a failure in not seeing or sharing their genius, and trading an entire draft to secure their favorites.

They are always doomed to be disappointed.


Belichik never does so, because he knows he has a limited pot of money that must stretch in order to have average or better than average players for 53-65 positions. He wins that way, especially late in the season as rosters get decimated with injuries, and he still has capable substitute players.

These fans never consider that at all. They think the team should be made up of only superstar starters and never realize you can't do that with a limited pot of money.

Belichick's genius lays in fitting that many players who can play, into the available pot of money.

Belichick knows he will always be picking late, since he wins. So more then most, he takes advantage of every opportunity includng obtaining more picks, and harvesting a draft year position that is in surplus, expecting to pick up a player that would ordinarily never be available to him.

For example. Wilfork fell to him and he snatched him up. Seldom can you obtain a Probowl quality Left Tackle or QB without spending a Top Ten draft selection. But Belichick found two Left Tackles in Seabass and Solder, the past few years and neither one cost anywhere near a Top Ten pick. One has already been to a Probowl, as a Right Tackle, and the other as a rookie showed he is sure to go.

If Ryan Mallett were coming out this Draft, instead of last, he would have been a sure Top Five pick, after seeing what the Redskins paid to have a chance at RGIII. I consider Mallett to be a great and rare physical talent, who may or may not have the IQ and/or leadership skills to excell as a QB. However, he does appear to have the right work habits at least, and I will certainly defer to Belichick in warranting his QB knowledge.

In that sense, he is similar to Matt Casse, in having the talent but maybe not the head or experience. Hoyer was also a target of opportunity, as a UDFA, who appears to have a QB's mind, but maybe not enough of a QB's arm.

This season it seems that OLB is a position of draft surplus, after many years of drought. I expect Belichick will harvest a couple, if they fall to him, even though he has developed a few himself, missed on a few, and gave up too soon on Jeremy Mincey who went to the Probowl this past season.

Similarly there are a few DE who are not superstars, but can probably play, and he may grab one, if he falls. He needs some Safeties but there are few to none. I expect he might consider drafting a big but less highly regarded CB, and convert him. Trumaine is an example of someone who has some CB coverage ability, but is big enough to play Safety. Or he may simply wait till next year, for a better selection.

Of interest, there are several very good ILBs, with size, and one may fall. Will Bill take one even though the position is now pretty well stocked?

Joker

I was a big time advocate of drafting Mincey...got slaughtered by the "experts" here and almost laughed off the board when he was shipped out...been watching his career since....I would say I was right about his talent...too bad he didn't fit here...

AzPatsFan

I don't think many fans understand that seldom can you draft then immediately play a LB. Only the superstars do so, and even they need a few years of experience to really excell.

For mere mortals, it can take as much as five years to mature a LB.

Jeremy Mincey and even our current Robert Ninkovich took that long. People forget that Tedy Bruschi also took that long, while Mike Vrabel needed four years too, with three of them in Pittsburg. Mike Anderson is five or six years into a career, and finally began transforming from a third down rush specialist into a OLB/DE.

I expect that Cunningham may begin to get it this next season, if he gets it at all. Still I think Hightower or Upshaw would look good in a Pats uniform, as well.

AndyJohnson

Well, you have to consider he played something like 9 games in his first 3 years after being released. He was barely ahead of where Shawn Crable was at the same point, so its kind of hard to call him an opportunity lost, he just needed a long developmental period, and we didn't have the space. We also ended up a 43 DE and we were trying to turn him into a 34 OLB

Joker

I NEVER said anything that you are claiming I did...what I printed was "I was a big time advocate of drafting Mincey"..the reason being that I thought, from watching him play and reading up on his measurables and stats, that he possessed the talent to play in the NFL.

I never said he fit the scheme nor did I say he should have played here, only that, as a SIXTH round pick,he was worth the shot just to find out.I was shouted down, berated and mocked by some of the "expert" members here for even thinking he should have been drafted....now, it would seem, I am sort of vindicated...if you consider a player making the Pro Bowl any kind of justification for being drafted

AndyJohnson

Um, I didn't claim you said anything, other than copying in your post.

I understand that

Again, I understand that and have no quarrel with it.

OK.
I was just adding commentary to what you said.

Joker

understood...nothing personal, Andy...just a little short tempered today

puffyme

Draft results are impossible to predict

Nikolai

Yep, that's why I stay out of those draft threads for the most part, especially on draft day. A lot of people get a little Borges-esque on this board (see my sig below).

__________________
We get what we deserve.

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“On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson..they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour, who had 1 sacks last season in the pass-happy SEC and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.”

PatsFanInVa

Not at all. You just appoint yourself a draft expert, study up, pick 30 or 40 of them you really really like, declaim the idiotic strategy that resulted in each of them not being picked by your team, in turn, then one to three years later list the picks that panned out, in order, juxtaposed against the actual pick the Pats took.

Both of them.

Then you proudly and loudly exclaim how you watched them pick person X, person Y, and person Z, none of whom were as good as the 1 or 2 you got right.

Presto. Armchair draft genius.