Originally Posted by conway
I'm not so sure this is doable. Sounds great in theory, and I'm not necessarily opposed to letting BJGE, Ninkovich, Carter, and Anderson go if this is what we could do. What kind of deals are you projecting for each? I suspect signing the rookies will be more expensive than you think, and cutting guys like Underwood gets us nowhere because his replacement won't come any cheaper. I'd be satisfied retaining Welker and Carter and signing Lloyd if that were possible.
For Mario Williams I was trying to base it off the DeMarcus Ware contract (allowing for inflation and taking into account injury history etc.)
Something like 7 years $80million, with $35million guaranteed and $21mil Signing Bonus.
A very simply breakdown would be something like this:
(first 3 years fully guaranteed, 4th year $2.1mil guaranteed)
Base Salary - Prorated Bonus - Roster Bonus - Cap Value
2012 - 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 0 - 6,000,000
2013 - 3,900,000 - 3,000,000 - 0 - 6,900,000
2014 - 5,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 11,000,000
2015 - 6,500,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 10,500,000
2016 - 8,450,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 12,450,000
2017 - 10,950,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 14,950,000
2018 - 14,250,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 18,250,000
(sorry for the formatting)
Big roster bonus in 2014 for the expected rise in salary cap. And while its a 7 year deal, its highly unlikely he would actually play out that 7th year. If my understanding is correct it would be a 15,250,000 cap saving if he was cut or he could be restructured.
Welker I had at a 4 year $30million contract with $14mil guaranteed and $6mil Signing Bonus. I'm not going to put the full breakdown, but I had him around $5.5million cap value for year 1. He was one of the toughest to predict because there really isn't any comparables for this contract. I think this is probably a hometown discount considering his value, but he is more valuable to the Pats than anywhere else.
Brandon Lloyd I had around a 3 year $15million contract with $5mil guaranteed, $3mil Signing Bonus (first year fully guaranteed). 1st year cap hit of $3.5 million. This was based of the Ocho Cinco contract he signed last year to come here (3yr $11.5). Lloyd may be worth more, but its a very strong FA WR class, and he takes a discout to play for JMD.
Adrian Wilson is the one I can't really get any idea of a contract if he is cut. Would he comand big money at age 32? Would he take a discout to come to a contender? Who knows, I really don't have a clue here.
With the other guys that are FA for the Pats. I think Slater will come back cheap. I think Andre Carter could come back cheap on a non guaranteed contract. Love will be back and I don't see BJGE getting big money anywhere else, so I think he will be back at a reasonable price. The biggest question mark would probably be Anderson and the kind of money he would command. Being a vet, I think he can appreciate the Patriots organisation and I think he might stay. Branch retires or signs elsewhere.
With my picks for the mock draft, I worked out the total salaries for those picks from last year, which totaled about $33 million, all over 4 year contracts. Taking into account escalating contracts, thats probably about a $5-6 cap value for the 1st year.
So adding that all up, thats about $20.5 for Super Mario, Welker, Lloyd and the draft for the 1st year, leaving about $12 for Wilson, BJGE, Carter etc. Probably a pipe dream, but if they can maybe restructure a few contracts its definitely possible.