Ice_Ice_Brady

When the Patriots played the Eagles this year, they got burned early on. Vince Young had two deep passes (I think one was to Jackson and one to Cooper), and it appeared the Eagles would destroy us. But the rest of the game, they barely mustered anything. It looked like guys were open, but Young kept looking for that big play.

I think Belichick has studied Eli Manning enough to know that he loves the "big play." The long pass, such as the hail mary before halftime to Hakeem Nicks versus the Packers is what makes Eli go. He isn't afraid to throw into coverage, relying on his receivers to make huge plays. In addition, it's obvious that the Giants receivers don't just want to win the game; they want to put on a memorable show. 10-15 yard passes are not a memorable show, even if that's what would win the game for the Giants.

With all the media attention about Eli, I almost feel like he is going to try and be a hero on Sunday, trying to throw a Brett Favre-type of long pass where he throws his arms up and runs across the field. Although Manning won't admit it, he is a gambler, not in the mold of Peyton. Eli is a gunslinger, and while he has improved in his decision making, he is prone to make bad throws quite often for an "elite" quarterback.

And that is precisely why I think the Patriots might be able to contain the Giants to the the tune of below 21 points. Whereas a quarterback like Brees or Rodgers wouldn't fall for the bait of the deep pass and would instead rely on short to medium range passes, if that's what the defense gives them, I don't believe that will happen with Eli.

I think it would be a good thing if the Pats get burned on a 40 yard pass (not a touchdown) early on, as it would make Eli and those receivers even more overconfident than they already are. If the Giants come out and play a low-risk passing game with lots of 8-10 yard passes, I don't think we'll stop them; but if they constantly challenge our "horrible secondary", I think there's a good chance we completely knock them off their game and they lose their confidence.

Thoughts?

Ivan

Letting up big plays is NEVER a good thing.

BelichickFan

Absolutely not. However the fact that Eli has been throwing into coverage in the playoffs and only getting picked off once is a good thing, that will lead to the over confidence you are rightly hoping will play to our advantage.

Ice_Ice_Brady

You guys might be forgetting Belichick's famous formula that if Thurman Thomas runs for over 100 yards against his defense, they will win the game. So, I wouldn't say that anything is "never a good thing." Depends on the situation and strategy.

BelichickFan

Part of that 100 yards "strategy" wasn't to give up an early 40 yard run to help ensure the 100 yards.

oldskool138

No. It never is.

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"You're all a bunch yahoos, hero worshipers and gutless suck-ups." - Tony Massarotti

Ice_Ice_Brady

Not sure how relevant that is to the conversation. Obvious similarity is not in the specific application of the idea, but in the idea itself. And that idea is: sometimes it's worth giving up something if it gives you an edge somewhere else.

Against the Bills, Belichick wanted them to believe they could rip off 8 yards games all game; he was correct. But that also made them get fewer big plays. He thought the Bills were too explosive to contain their big playmakers.

This situation would be the opposite effect, but the same principle.

rsd

This board really needs a Dislike button.

makoute

I thought this was going to be about how the Pats should test those safeties and corners and throw the ball deep on the giants, boy was I wrong.

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italia44

Lord almighty......make it stop

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