ivanvamp

Over the last 5 games, here's what the Pats and Giants have done in terms of points scored. I'm going to refer to each opponent's defensive ranking in terms of points allowed.

NYG (#9 scoring offense, 24.6 ppg)
at NYJ #20 (22.7) - NYG scores 29
vs Dal #16 (21.7) - NYG scores 31
vs Atl #18 (21.9) - NYG scores 26
at GB #19 (22.4) - NYG scores 37
at SF #2 (14.3) - NYG scores 20
AVG RANK: 16.8 (20.6) - NYG scores 28.6

NE (#3 scoring offense, 32.1 ppg)
at Den #24 (24.4) - NE scores 41
vs Mia #6 (19.6) - NE scores 27
vs Buf #30 (27.1) - NE scores 49
vs Den #24 (24.4) - NE scores 45
vs Bal #3 (16.6) - NE scores 23
AVG RANK: 17.4 (22.4) - NE scores 37.0


Over the past 5 games, the Giants have scored 4.0 ppg above their season's average. They've scored 8.0 on average more than what their opponents' defenses typically allow.

Over the past 5 games, the Patriots have scored 4.9 ppg above their season's average. They've scored 14.6 on average more than what their opponents' defenses typically allow.

The opposing defenses that the Giants and Patriots have faced over the last 5 games have been remarkably similar, and the two teams have scored roughly the same points per game more over this 5-game stretch than their season's average. So they're performing at roughly the same level relative to their offense's capability. One would expect, given the slightly below average nature of the average defenses these teams have faced, that both the Giants and Patriots would be scoring a little more than normal. And that's what we find.

Over the course of the season, the Giants' defense was ranked #25 in points allowed (25.0 ppg) while the Patriots' defense was ranked #15 in points allowed (21.4 ppg). Over this 5-game stretch, the Giants have allowed 13.4 ppg, an improvement of 11.6 ppg from the regular season. Meanwhile, the Pats have allowed 19.6 ppg, an improvement of 1.8 ppg.

So the Giants have really turned it up a notch on defense. Their 13.4 ppg allowed would have them ranked #1 in the NFL if that lasted a whole season. I would expect the Patriots to score under their season's average.

The Patriots have also improved on defense. Their 19.6 ppg allowed would have them ranked #6 in the NFL if that lasted a whole season. I expect the Giants to score around their season's average.

So if the Giants score around their season's average, +/- 3 points, we're looking at somewhere between 22-28 points scored by them. If the Pats score under their average somewhere between 3-10 points (which is reasonable given their performance against Baltimore and Miami, the other two good defenses they've played recently), we're looking at somewhere between 22-29 points scored by them.

In other words, we should have a really close game with the scores in the 20's. And it totally could go either way.

Get ready for a nail-biter, people.

ALP

im going to remember this thread, and if its on the money (which i think is a very high chance) i WILL come back and give you props

__________________
Last time I lived in New England the Pats became a Dynasty

Then I moved away and they haven't won since

...now I'm moving back, and a Lombardi I predict

ivanvamp

Heh. I hope I'm dead wrong and the Pats win 45-3. I think we're in for a typical Pats down-to-the-wire Super Bowl.

BlueThunder

Great analysis.....

It's going to come down to turnovers and possibly who has the ball last.

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My guns are no threat to anyone who isn't trying to deprive me or my family of life,liberty or property. They are,however, EXTREMELY dangerous to anyone who threatens to take those things.

ivanvamp

Back to the original post, think of this....

NY has scored 8.0 on average more than what their opponents' defenses typically allow. NE has allowed an average of 19.6 ppg over their last 5 games.

8.0 + 19.6 = 27.6

NE has scored 14.6 on average more than what their opponents' defenses typically allow. NY has allowed an average of 13.4 ppg over their last 5 games.

14.6 + 13.4 = 28.0

We're talking about a difference of less than half a point. Doesn't get much closer than that.

Beecke

So what we basically are doing here is hoping that the Giants drastic improvements in the last 5 games will not hold up and they at least revert to type a bit? Otherwise we are in for a definite nailbiter?

I really want the Pats to roll over them from the off, even though I expect this to stay close.

But anyway, the Giants had such a horrible stretch after beating us, what I would really like to know is what exactly they are about? I mean, they had a good, very good start right up until after they beat us. Then went on to be very poor and lose 5 out of 6 or so, and then they go on their current run. Something´s gotta give with that team, no?

ivanvamp

I am assuming that the Giants' improvements over the last 5 games are their new norm. I am also assuming that the Patriots' performance over their last 5 are normal. I am assuming that what we've seen from the Giants over their last 5 is pretty much what we're going to get in the Super Bowl.

If the Giants revert back to their 25th ranked defense, then the Patriots win in a cakewalk. I - and most likely not very many other people either - foresees that happening.

vyrago

and 3 point win?

ALP

who doesn't? winning the game alone will be awesome and beyond words at winning the superbowl

but if we also embarrass the giants by handing them a blowout, then it will ALSO be about a certain game these two teams played in 2008 of the same month

if i was not a fan of either team i would want a Patriots-ravens type of game, as things stand i want a Patriots-Broncos type of game

__________________
Last time I lived in New England the Pats became a Dynasty

Then I moved away and they haven't won since

...now I'm moving back, and a Lombardi I predict