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Old 01-10-2012, 09:37 AM   #1
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Default Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

Based on Broncos win in OT; it seems pretty obvious almost every team should elect to receive. But what do you do when your opening drive stalls?

What are your standards? In the following situation where on the field do you kick it, go for it, or punt?

Assuming Pats are first team to receive and it is now 4th and short (1-3 yards) at what spots on the field would you elect to go for it?

Also assuming:
1. You are not in Denver. (a sea level game)
2. Pats are playing a playoff caliber opponent (at least one of opponents D and/or O are top 10 )

With our porous secondary; I think from the Goal line to the 35 you need to go for it and just skip attempting to kick a FG. (only do the FG if you it is 4th and 4 yds or more)

From anything beyond 35 I would punt or pooch it and try to pin them back inside the 10.

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Old 01-10-2012, 10:07 AM   #2
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

I myself thought at the time it might be better to defer.....and it's an interesting tactic teams with trust in their defenses may use. If you have been doing pretty well all game against their offense and have some faith you can force a 3 & out, then I'd kick it.

If you go 3 & out yourself, you're punting from around your 20, and that can be a huge field position factor for the rest of OT. If you force the 3 & out, then you have every chance of turning field position in your favour.

I think we could see a team like the Ravens opt towards doing something like that.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:23 AM   #3
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

I honestly don't think kicking it would be a good thing to do at all for any team in overtime. You have the chance to get the ball and win it, you're not going to allow the other team to have that chance.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:56 AM   #4
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

The new playoff OT rules are still a little confusing to me. Can someone still explain them to me? I was kinda hoping the Steelers got a chance to get the ball too.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:09 AM   #5
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

So, lets assume a team has 4th and 2. Not a no-brainer of 4th and inches, and not a no-brainer of 4th and long. If you have a 0% chance of converting, you punt. If you have a 100% chance of converting, you go for it.

Now consider when you have a 50% chance of making it. If you are within field goal range of the other team (your own 35 or closer), I think you have to punt. A failed conversion all but guarantees a loss, while a made conversion does not all but guarantee a win (although it increases the probability).

I think you absolutely punt on your own 35 or closer. I think you kick the field goal from their 35 or closer. I think in between, it depends on the game situation. If their offense is tearing it up, I would tend to go for it. If their offense is not tearing it up, I play for field position.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:17 AM   #6
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

Well I would also factor in the opponent to help me decide If I would go for it or not. I'd be opt to go for it on 4th and 2 rather than punting it to the Packers, and I'd be more likely to punt it on 4th and 2 if it meant punting it to the Broncos.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:20 AM   #7
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haterproof View Post
The new playoff OT rules are still a little confusing to me. Can someone still explain them to me? I was kinda hoping the Steelers got a chance to get the ball too.
Each team must be given the opportunity to possess the ball except if a TD is scored (which always ends the game).

So, if the team receiving the kickoff doesn't score a TD, then they can't win until the other team has the opportunity to possess the ball. The most common case would be the receiving team goes down the field and kicks a field goal and then kicks off to the opposing team. At this point, the opposing team has to score at least a field goal or they'll lose. Of course, if they score a TD, they win. If they do score a field goal to tie the game, then they'll kickoff and it will be sudden death overtime.

Note that being on the receiving end of a kickoff is considered an "opportunity to possess the ball". So a team could potentially lose the coin flip, kick off (perhaps an onside kick), recover the ball, score a field goal and win the game because both teams had an opportunity to possess the ball.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:30 AM   #8
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

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Each team must be given the opportunity to possess the ball except if a TD is scored (which always ends the game).

So, if the team receiving the kickoff doesn't score a TD, then they can't win until the other team has the opportunity to possess the ball. The most common case would be the receiving team goes down the field and kicks a field goal and then kicks off to the opposing team. At this point, the opposing team has to score at least a field goal or they'll lose. Of course, if they score a TD, they win. If they do score a field goal to tie the game, then they'll kickoff and it will be sudden death overtime.

Note that being on the receiving end of a kickoff is considered an "opportunity to possess the ball". So a team could potentially lose the coin flip, kick off (perhaps an onside kick), recover the ball, score a field goal and win the game because both teams had an opportunity to possess the ball.
As I understand it, the only way the game ends the way it did, was because the Bronco's scored on their first play.. if they scored a TD after a drive. Pittsburgh would have been given a similar opportunity..

BB was talking about this yesterday, and he noted that this rule has 7 pages of explanation... so there is a lot to this new rule.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:37 AM   #9
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

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As I understand it, the only way the game ends the way it did, was because the Bronco's scored on their first play.. if they scored a TD after a drive. Pittsburgh would have been given a similar opportunity.
I don't believe that's correct -- a TD ends the OT, period.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:40 AM   #10
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Default Re: Postseason OverTime - Thought Experiment

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarrylS View Post
As I understand it, the only way the game ends the way it did, was because the Bronco's scored on their first play.. if they scored a TD after a drive. Pittsburgh would have been given a similar opportunity..

BB was talking about this yesterday, and he noted that this rule has 7 pages of explanation... so there is a lot to this new rule.
i think any TD or Saftey at any point in the game wins it, if denver got a FG then they would have a shot to tie it or win it witha TD denver just so happen to get there TD on the first play
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