Taylor Price is a Jaguar - Page 9 - New England Patriots Forums

JFK · 12-06-2011, 12:12 AM

The draft is not pure gambling but there is some element of gambling in the draft.
Really in life, nothing is certain.

PatsFan2 · 12-06-2011, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ausbacker

Alternatively, the Patriots could get their scouting of college receivers up to an excellent NFL standard. We could have had Jennings and Wallace, instead we got Jackson and Tate.

It's enough to make you cry when you think the Patriots could have had both of them in the same offense as Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez.

Must admit love the Jackson pick but the thought just make you wanna.

CheeseMonkeys · 12-06-2011, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deus Irae

And, yes, it's the team's job to figure out who will and who won't pan out.

Then within this multi-billion dollar dollar business teams are failing more than not. If They should really know who's going to be the next Peyton Manning and who's going to be the next Ryan Leaf, why are there so many draft busts and JAGs? You think with all the money they are tossing around they could hire someone who can actually do their job of nailing every draft pick.

You are wrong. Like I said, it's the team's job to scout players and chose who they believe will fit well into their system. It isn't their job to know how the player will pan out.

SyN65 · 12-06-2011, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ausbacker

How about you do that instead. I don't care what opponent's draft records are like, I care about the Patriots ability to identify talent and then given the opportunity draft those players identified.

The Patriots are an excellent team at building the roster through the draft. Receiver, unfortunately has not been one of the positions they have excelled at. That's not an opinion, that is sheer fact.

Used to be, not in the last 5 or 6 years though. In the last 6 years the Pats have been one of the worst teams in the football as far as drafting goes...

JackBauer · 12-06-2011, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SyN65

Used to be, not in the last 5 or 6 years though. In the last 6 years the Pats have been one of the worst teams in the football as far as drafting goes...

I have a feeling that's not even remotely accurate.

Wretch · 12-06-2011, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deus Irae

It's never a crap shoot. That's just a simplification. Sometimes it's a useful one, but around here it's just turned into yet another excuse.

It's a process involving large amounts of time and money spent on compiling information about as many different players as possible (up to a point), and on targeting players that seem to be potentially good picks for the organizations. Teams that do it well will generally improve. Team that don't will generally decline. The Patriots recent struggles in the process, as most clearly demonstrated by the 3rd round failures since 2005, are a large part of why the team's been unable to successfully rebuild the defense.

Actually, statistically speaking gambling has a better ROI than late round draft picks.

The odds of rolling a 7 or 11 in craps is 244/495 (=0.492929...). Better odds than a 3rd round draft pick becoming a starter (less than 1/3 from the last stats I saw).

robertweathers · 12-06-2011, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackBauer

I have a feeling that's not even remotely accurate.

It's not. People don't understand that you dont win 80% of your games with bad drafts. Take away Brady and the team still does a damn good job at drafting players...just not WRs

CHFF did a nice job in this piece.

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts

Quote:

New England (A)
Pro Bowlers: 11 (2nd)
Draftees Active in 2010: 46 (t-3rd)
Players with 50+ Career AV: 7 (1st)
Players with 20+ Career AV: 22 (t-1st)
Best Pick: CB Asante Samuel (4th round, 2003)
Worst Pick: WR Chad Jackson (2nd round, 2006)

Summary: The Patriots got at least one impact player in each of their 10 drafts from 2001-2010, and maybe the biggest tribute to their ability to identify top talent is that all 10 of their No. 1 picks were still playing in the league last year along with 11 of their 14 No. 2s. This bodes well for 2011 draftees Nate Solder, Ras-I Dowling and Shane Vereen.

Wretch · 12-06-2011, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SyN65

Used to be, not in the last 5 or 6 years though. In the last 6 years the Pats have been one of the worst teams in the football as far as drafting goes...

Maiocco: Five-year study of NFL drafts

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts

Depending on your metric and the sample the Pats range from top 10 to the best drafting team in the league.

The first link has BM as the pats best pick ignoring Mayo, Gronk, Hernandez, and McCourty. So I disagree with that part of the article but the players drafted versus players still on team stat is a good metric. I would argue that it speaks more highly of the Pats drafts that so many player have stuck with the team. Its a lot harder to make the cut on a good team like the Pats than an average or bad team, like the Seahawks or Miami.