BelichickFan

Agreed - but I do think some of this year's QB will be starting by year's end.

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Don't Give Me a Defensive Player Who Can't Tackle . . . What Am I Going to Do With Him ? --- Bill Belichick

arrellbee

Historically, after 3 or 4 years, it's a good draft year if over a third of the 1st round picks are still everygame starters - or are even in the league at all.

It will be interesting to see if this guy picked the right top third or not. Being a cynic, I would guess he is no better at picking the real NFL talent than the teams themselves - so if that is the case, on the order of 8 of the top 12 in his list won't even be starting on a regular basis. So F.B.N.'s question is a really good one. Analyze away.

DarrylS

INterestingly Jake Long does not even make the list, guess that Miami did not get good value and had to reach..otoh, looks like we got pretty good value in Mayo.

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"Stats are for losers. Final score is for winners." Billl Belichick

nelly57

Def agree that the conversion can happen quickly. In addtion, it didn't hurt during Merrimam's and Ware's rookie year, each played with some very good MLBs; guys like Edwards and Nguyen.

Brady'sButtBoy

Thankfully, a thread on something other than the Pat's minor rule infraction.

When you consider how awful the Dolphins were last year it's quite reasonable to think that a guy with a big arm and some fire in his belly like Henne will have the biggest impact on his team - he doesn't have to be an all-pro, just solid and the Fins will be a very different team. I bet Henne plays from the start, sorry Mr. Beck.

Contrast that with Mayo stepping into the #2 Defense in the NFL - Jerrod would have to play like an absolute star to make #8 on this list from the way the writer says he calculates it, FWIW.

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c_nice_37

Just curious - who is their NT? Jenkins? I don't see him as a 3-4 NT but if he can recover what he once was he could make me eat my words.

Also, I was never high on Gholston, just didn't dominate enough consistently. Definite boom / bust and now that he is with the Jest I hope for the latter. If Pace can be who they paid him to be, it should help out Gholston a lot.

AndyJohnson

I said it when people wanted the Pats to draft him, and I'll say it again now. Gholston was a TERRIBLE pick as a 3-4 OLB. Especially in a 2gap system. He does not hold up well at the point of attack. He will not be effective rushing the passer from the OLB spot, being blocked by OTs. He can make plays if the scheme frees him up, but who in the NFL can't? If he stays at 34 OLB he will be the biggest bust of the first half of this years draft. If he ends up a 43 DE in a one gap system, he can be a good player.
His strengths are based on quickness, anticipation, and gambling for the big play. None of those are very usefull for a 3-4 2 gap OLB. He will get manhandled in the running game. His pass rush coming from the OLB position eliminates the 2 gap DE ability to beat the blocker off the line, choose a gap, gamble etc.
I may be wrong. I am a huge Buckeye fan, and I loved him as Buck, but could see in all the games I watched him that he was far, far better suited to being a 43 DE than a 34 OLB, and also a one gap player rather than 2.
This is where I see most poor draft choices come from. Teams project that a guy can do what is needed at a position significantly different than the one he excelled at. The skillset needed for a 34 2 gap olb is dramatically different than the skillset needed for a 43 one gap DE. Even as far as rushing the passer, the skills in doing it from thise 2 different positons are very different. What happened here, and happens often is people fell in love with Gholstons measurables, so decided they could fit a square peg in a round hole. The comments that 'he started as a LB at Ohio State" were ludicrous to me, and an obvious stretch to fit him into a projection.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that if Gholston had the skill set to play OLB Ohio State would have left him there. They value LBs much more than DEs. In the end the Jets are trying to convert Gholston to a position at the NFL level that he was converted away from at the College level. All of the reasons he was converted away are much more maginified in the NFL as well.

AndyJohnson

I dont know how Henne is expected to have a bigger impact than Matt Ryan? Thats bizarre.

I hope Henne is annointed the Dolphin QB. After seeing him play poorly, especially in the clutch, against all of the top competition he faced at Michigan, we will be stepping backward 2 years and having the Dolphins with Joey Harrington Jr trying to lead them out of the abyss.

AndyJohnson

But the fact that some players have converted says nothing about whether he can. Merriman and Ware do no tplay in 2gap systems either.
The question isnt whether a college DE can become a pro OLB, the quesiton is whether Gholston has the skillset to do so.

KontradictioN

You guys have already brought up Henne, but I'm not quite sure Kevin Smith even belongs on that list. I used to go to UCF once upon a time and have actually seen Kevin Smith play in person. He's an amazing athelete and a great running back but there is no way he belongs at #2 on that list. I'd put him at #22 if anything.

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Hey Kerry, you suck!