jmt57

The Pats just signed Brady to a pretty big contract; in my opinion that tells me they planning on him being their starting quarterback for at least three more years.

The days of using an early draft pick and planning on having him not get on the field for three years are gone; that's just not reasonable given the dual constraints of the salary cap and free agency. Otherwise you end up in a situation where that player is the equivalent of dead money on the cap and he's free to bolt to free agency by the time you're ready to play him.

And before someone brings up the example of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, that was a unique situation. There were two dynamics in place: first, flip-flopping Brett Favre had Green Bay convinced that there was a very good chance he would be retiring that year or the next. Second, Rodgers unexpectedly fell in their laps, slipping to their spot in that draft. He represented a very good value so it made sense for them to grab him.

Also, as mentioned before the visits could very well be a smokescreen or just some extra scouting to be used at a later date. Remember last year when so many "experts" were convinced the Pats were going to draft Tim Tebow?

convertedpatsfan

I wouldn't use a high pick. We've got Brady for at least 2 to 3 more years, if not longer. Hoyer is a pretty good back-up option.

I would be in favour of spending a late pick on a developmental guy with high upside and seeing if we can't get lucky. But I don't see the need to spend a high pick (top 3 rounds) to groom Brady's replacement this year. If there's value in the 4th or 5th, I would be okay with that. I doubt Stanzi drops, but if he's there or McElroy in the 5th/6th, then that might intrigue me.

AndyJohnson

Not to mention that it seems clear that BBs preference is to find his next QB by starting with a blank canvass that he can develop in his system.

nashvillepatsfan

I like what I've seen from Hoyer so far. No need to panic yet.

ctpatsfan77

I don't think anyone's panicking. It's simply the realization that it's unlikely that Hoyer is going to be willing to stick around until Brady retires.

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PatsWickedPissah

Likely. Guess what? The Pats will pick another diamond in the rough developmental QB to succeed him. What they clearly will not do is use a high draft pick, anything like the examples cited previously for a QB this April.

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Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as "bad luck." RAH

PatsWickedPissah

Sane analysis always ruins these alternate universe threads.

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Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as "bad luck." RAH

PatsFanSince74

It's more a question of how long they will wait. That's only partially driven by how long they think Brady can play at a high level. It will also be driven by who's available and when and at what price.

How long can he play at a high level?

We all hope Brady will prove to be more like Elway (rings at 37 and 38) and Favre than the guys who packed it in before they turned 36. But as tough as TB is, he's already lost a full season to injury and is spending this off-season rehabbing another.

Belichick and Kraft make decisions with their heads, not their hearts, and I don't think that they will put all their eggs in the basket that TB will have the durability of Manning or Favre, as much as they hope he will. Brady gets sacked a lot and, just as importantly, hit a lot. The average retirement age of an SB Era HOF QB is 37.5 and the median is 38 (those numbers are skewed by old timers like Len Dawson, Sonny Jurgensen and Johnny Unitas who retired at 40 as well as by Warren Moon who hung around until 44); 37/38 is just about when Brady's current contract will run out. And, no matter how we explain it away, no QB has won an SB past the age of 38.

The rest is a matter of who is available, when he is available and at what price.

I think they'll take the next QB they feel they can get at a price that reflects the potential value to the franchise.

Kraft is a businessman and counts the beans and runs the numbers with the best of them. He knows that he got lucky beyond his wildest dreams by getting Brady for $303k in his rookie year ($193 base plus $110 bonus) and $275k base plus maybe $75k incentives in his second year. He already knows that he'll be playing with several million of house money when BB tells him, "this is the guy."

Speaking of "lucky," I wouldn't be surprised if they hoard a couple of picks for Andrew Luck next year. But, the one thing we can be sure of is that if the Pats are interested in a QB, we'll only find out about it when Goodell reads the card that begins "And with the _ pick in the 20__ NFL Draft, the Patriots take...".

And, Joe was also "a possible GOAT" when they picked up Steve Young.

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randomk1

Brady is like fine wine. He'll be mvp at 40.Seriously now...the guy was the unanimous MVP and coming off one of the best seasons ever for a QB and at the same time he is crying about being picked #199 a decade ago.Safe to say that Brady isn't even thinking about retiring.

randomk1

49ers never drafted Young.They got him from the Bucs and he was pretty crappy during that time so the Bucs drafted Testaverde to replace him.