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Old 03-26-2011, 07:46 PM   #31
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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Originally Posted by convertedpatsfan View Post
Yes, lets take away the last two drafts which have been home runs. And lets also take away the 5 solid drafts prior to 2006. If we only look at one specific area with blinders and ignore the rest of history, then of course it's easy to draw ridiculous conclusions.

The team had an awful period of drafting between 2006 and 2008. But you can't keep pointing to that over and over and over and over while ignoring the other 7 or 8 drafts. It's just silly.


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Old 03-26-2011, 08:44 PM   #32
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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Originally Posted by DW Toys View Post
Andy, Not so much. Take away the last two years and the Draft here has been mediocre at best including all of BB's maddening trades. Take away last year and when you view starters produced. 5 starters in five years plus Ghost before last year. 5 starters in five years with numerous trades up and down. I say "C-" tops. Opinion or no, it is what it is.
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The record speaks for itself. When you win more games in a decade than any team ever, you have a better roster with a more difficult chance for draft picks to make an impact.
Of course ignoring the years that dont support your argument kind of mutes your argument anyway.
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Old 03-26-2011, 10:13 PM   #33
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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The record speaks for itself. When you win more games in a decade than any team ever, you have a better roster with a more difficult chance for draft picks to make an impact.
Of course ignoring the years that dont support your argument kind of mutes your argument anyway.
Fair enough on your first paragraph. Don't get the second.

My point is a mix. I think the Trades and FAs made more difference in that period that the Draft choices.
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Old 03-27-2011, 06:58 AM   #34
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

It is very very difficult to have the best record in football pretty much for a decade with the lowest picks over and over and have a a great draft. It is tough when you have very few slots open on your great team for which to find rookies who can come in and unseat the starter. It leaves you with a dillema, do you cut players who are better today for rookies who might be better in a year or two. That was what faced the Patriots for a couple years, the year they went 18-1, remember that? So instead, they traded picks for Welker, and Moss, and missed on a few picks. Sort of hard to argue with the results in the end, isn't it?
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Old 03-27-2011, 11:17 AM   #35
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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Originally Posted by Rob0729 View Post
Another BS rumor that happens every year. No way do the Pats even consider trading the 28th pick until they are on the clock. Why would the Pats trade it before then? It makes no sense and rarely happens with any team.

What this report is getting is the typical chatter between organizations where they send out feelers to see who might be interested in the pick and what they might give up so on draft day the negotiations can happen quickly. That doesn't mean the Pats will trade the pick, but they have a good idea who to call if they decide that there is no one worth taking with that pick. I wouldn't bet against them talking with other teams to trade up.

The Pats have no idea who will be available at 28. So they won't trade until they are on the clock if they trade at all. For all we know, the #2 guy on their draft board could still be available with that pick (you would assume either they drafted their #1 guy on their draft board already or he was selected by someone else). Why would they trade it away. Or you could have a case like last year where the Broncos really wanted to trade up to get Tebow and the Cowboys wanted to trade up to get Dez Bryant. The Pats got more in those two trades than they would have gotten trading the pick before the draft.
I don't think there's a whole lot of debate on that, since the value of a First or Second Round pick reaches its peak on draft day (or maybe the day before for the number one pick.)

I think what most people are suggesting is that the Pats might just be doing the tiniest little bit of research beforehand, since they will only have ten minutes once they are "on the clock" in Round One. Not exactly a lot of time to start calling teams for the first time and asking, "Yo, you guys interested in the next pick?"
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Old 03-27-2011, 11:26 AM   #36
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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Old 03-27-2011, 01:37 PM   #37
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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Originally Posted by convertedpatsfan View Post
Yes, lets take away the last two drafts which have been home runs. And lets also take away the 5 solid drafts prior to 2006. If we only look at one specific area with blinders and ignore the rest of history, then of course it's easy to draw ridiculous conclusions.

The team had an awful period of drafting between 2006 and 2008. But you can't keep pointing to that over and over and over and over while ignoring the other 7 or 8 drafts. It's just silly.
The NFL was different in the early turn of the century than it is now. I used five years as a base. If we include the first three of the last five years a "C" is the best I see because of the last two years. At the end of the day there are only eight starters over the entire Draft class not including punter and kicker. Lets average 7 picks per year. That is 49 picks in five years and 7 starters. That is a 14% rate....plus the punter and hick bring that up to about 17%. Bet you can't guess what the NFL average is? ....17%....huh. I say "C" is average.
My point is we can do better if he holds on the some of these picks this year. This was a better year to keep picks for the Pats because the depth is in our needed wheelhouse. Nest year if we stock pile, who knows and will there be a Draft?
In 2005 we traded out of round 2 and lost Tuck, Gore, Atogwe, Morrison as example.
In 2006 we traded with Green Bay for Chad Jackson and they got Jennings and Spitz for our trade. Maybe we should have stayed?
In 2007 we had not second or third or fifth round and went after the immortal Kareem Brown. We traded our third for Oakland seventh (yikes) and a third in 2008.
Then in 2008 it was a disaster after Mayo with Wheatly, Crable, O'Connell, Slater, Wilhite and the other unforgetables....leaving these guys for other consumption like Jamaal Charrles, Cliff Avril, Finley, DeCoud, Biermann, Choice.It was like a conspiracy of fail misses! That might have been the worse Draft year in Pats history.
2009 was no hero year. Chung , Brace and Butler our first three are still to be determined. How can any one say other than Volmer and and perhaps Chung that was a swell home run Draft class. We swapped Clay Matthews for Butler and Tate. Anybody want to take a mulligan on that one? Edleman and Pryor made up for the top and middle being weak. Two starters and four JAGS with Brace, Edleman and Pryor as promising an TBD. Not as good as 2009 but a major gaff on Matthews. 2008 a Home run? Maybe a double. 2009 was better.

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Old 03-27-2011, 01:56 PM   #38
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

so finally...the truth behind your posts comes into view...you're STILL all jacked off that the Patriots missed on Clay Matthews...so you post inanities like "way back in the early part of the century things weren't the same!!!!" implying that not taking Matthews somehow proves the Patriots have had real bad drafts the past few years. Why don't you just say so at the start and spare everybody all this drama?
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Old 03-27-2011, 03:05 PM   #39
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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Originally Posted by DW Toys View Post
The NFL was different in the early turn of the century than it is now. I used five years as a base. If we include the first three of the last five years a "C" is the best I see because of the last two years. At the end of the day there are only eight starters over the entire Draft class not including punter and kicker. Lets average 7 picks per year. That is 49 picks in five years and 7 starters. That is a 14% rate....plus the punter and hick bring that up to about 17%. Bet you can't guess what the NFL average is? ....17%....huh. I say "C" is average.
My point is we can do better if he holds on the some of these picks this year. This was a better year to keep picks for the Pats because the depth is in our needed wheelhouse. Nest year if we stock pile, who knows and will there be a Draft?
In 2005 we traded out of round 2 and lost Tuck, Gore, Atogwe, Morrison as example.
In 2006 we traded with Green Bay for Chad Jackson and they got Jennings and Spitz for our trade. Maybe we should have stayed?
In 2007 we had not second or third or fifth round and went after the immortal Kareem Brown. We traded our third for Oakland seventh (yikes) and a third in 2008.
Then in 2008 it was a disaster after Mayo with Wheatly, Crable, O'Connell, Slater, Wilhite and the other unforgetables....leaving these guys for other consumption like Jamaal Charrles, Cliff Avril, Finley, DeCoud, Biermann, Choice.It was like a conspiracy of fail misses! That might have been the worse Draft year in Pats history.
2009 was no hero year. Chung , Brace and Butler our first three are still to be determined. How can any one say other than Volmer and and perhaps Chung that was a swell home run Draft class. We swapped Clay Matthews for Butler and Tate. Anybody want to take a mulligan on that one? Edleman and Pryor made up for the top and middle being weak. Two starters and four JAGS with Brace, Edleman and Pryor as promising an TBD. Not as good as 2009 but a major gaff on Matthews. 2008 a Home run? Maybe a double. 2009 was better.

DW Toys
When we pick and choose from data, we can compile whatever fantasy we want. It's not that difficult, especially when you realize your math gives equal weight to 1st and 7th round picks when it comes to developing starters.

As for individual decisions, it's easy to look back on any draft and declare everyone stupid for not taking a certain player. Every team passed on Tom Brady multiple times, including us. So to say the Pats screwed up by not taking player x can be accurate, yet entirely misleading since a lot of other teams passed as well. Everyone screwed up, multiple times. But if you only look at one team's decisions without the others, you get very jaded, skewed data. Which you seem to prefer.

In 2005, we could have had Frank Gore or some other nice players instead of Ellis Hobbs and some spare parts. That ignores the fact that every team passed on guys like Gore multiple times, not just us.

The 49ers should have taken Gore over Alex Smith at #1. In fact, I'd rather have Gore than half that first round, which includes Benson (who was a bust in Chicago), Cadillac, Pacman Jones, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, David Pollack, Erasmus James, Alex Barron, Matt Jones, Fabian Washington, Marlin Jackson, or Mike Patterson. All were 1st round picks taken by other teams. A lot of those teams would miss again in the 2nd.

Yet you're obsessed with the Pats not taking him at 64. Yes, we should have taken him at 64. In fact, we should have taken him at 32. But the only reason he was even available in the 3rd round was because EVERYONE missed the boat on him. Several times.

In 2006, we should have taken Jennings. But a lot of teams passed on Jennings, including Green Bay, who took Daryn Colledge 5 spots ahead of Jennings. If they really knew what Jennings could be, would they have risked that? Minnesota had two picks between when Colledge and Jennings were drafted. They had a need at WR and very easily could have scooped him up but didn't. So the Packers made a good choice, but they were also very lucky no one else took him first. They almost made a big mistake but got away with it.

The 2007 draft was weak, which is why we traded so many picks. But for all the jokes about Kareem Brown, look at that 4th round and tell me who you would have taken really. The only two guys in that round who have gone onto a Pro Bowl were a long snapper and a fullback. Overall, it was a mediocre draft for everyone, not just the Pats.

2008 might have been the worst Pats draft, I agree. But there were many misses by many teams. Faulting us for not taking Biermann ignores the fact that every team ignored him numerous times. Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Lawrence Jackson, Philip Merling, Quentin Groves, Chris Ellis, Bryan Smith, and Jeremy Thompson were some of the DEs taken ahead of Biermann.

Like any area of team-building like FA or trades, the draft isn't perfect. But in terms of money spent to output, it's an invaluable resource. If a few 6th or 7th rounders don't become starters, that doesn't make the entire exercise a failure.

It also ignores the fact that most of the players you want to pursue in trades/FA signings were draft picks. It stands to reason that getting them when they're at their cheapest is an incredible value compared to signing them at their highest contract points later.
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Old 03-27-2011, 10:02 PM   #40
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Default Re: The San Diego Union-Tribune REPORTS the Pats are shopping pick #28.

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The 2007 draft was weak, which is why we traded so many picks. But for all the jokes about Kareem Brown, look at that 4th round and tell me who you would have taken really. The only two guys in that round who have gone onto a Pro Bowl were a long snapper and a fullback. Overall, it was a mediocre draft for everyone, not just the Pats.
Agreed. The Patriots had one of the most talented rosters ever assembled at that point, and eight picks in the last three rounds of what they considered one of the worst drafts ever (I think BB said there were players going in the third round that graded out as UDFAs on the Patriots' board). That was a recipe for a lot of waived drafted rookies.
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