Seacoast Fan

Ditto x2.

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Fencer

At this stage of their careers, LdT is probably still better at pounding the ball than Woodhead. But that's the only advantage he has, and I'm not aware that he's particularly good or useful at it either.

Woodhead is better and more valuable.

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CheeseMonkeys

I don't know if anyone else agrees but woodhead's been pretty good running into people for the extra yard, and isn't being stuffed or knocked around like a rag doll.

PATSNUTme

The most talented undrafted duo in the NFL.

BradyFTW!

It accounts for down and distance, not for formation or the defensive formation that they're running against.

BradyFTW!

We can't technically know that he wouldn't rush for 3,000 yards, either, but that's beside the point. It's up to us to use our best judgment, and that doesn't make all speculation equally valid. It still falls to use to use the facts at our disposal, and the simple fact is that Woodhead rarely, if ever, runs into a stacked box, and that's something that LT has had to deal with all the time throughout his career. That, for starters, is why any top-level statistical comparison is ridiculous.

Woodhead is a situational player, much like Kevin Faulk. You're not going to ask him to run directly into a defense that's stacking the box against the run, like LT has routinely had to do throughout his career. Woodhead excels when he has a little bit of space to work with, and he's already on the field for most of the snaps where the defense is spread out. For him to get 200+ carries, he would have to be more versatile than he is. That's not an indictment of him as a player; a lot of the Pats' extremely valuable players are specialists. Spikes, Wright, Guyton, Page, Faulk, Morris... all specialists. You seem to interpret that as a put-down of him as a player, but it isn't one. He has a role, and he executes it better than any of us could have hoped. That doesn't change the fact that he isn't as good as Tomlinson, though.

And on top of all of that, you can't overestimate the impact that playing with Brady has on RB's statistics, as I mentioned before. In 2007, Maroney had one of the top DVOAs in the NFL. This year, BJGE is third among players with >100 carries. Playing against defenses that are willing to concede the run because of how afraid they are of Brady will always make RBs look far better than they really are. Do you really think that it's a coincidence that the same's happening with Woodhead right now?

How about the fact that the leading DYAR for players with <100 rushes has looked like this over the past few years: 2007: Sammy Morris, 2008: Kevin Faulk, 2009: Kevin Faulk, 2010: Danny Woodhead. At this point, it's just glaringly obvious that this is a product of the Patriots efficiently using specialist RBs. and defenses conceding the ground game in these situations to try to keep Brady from killing them. What other possible scenario is there that could lead to the Pats having the top RB in this category for four years running, rotating through three different backs? It's just how the system works, and it's a credit to Belichick's genius as a coach.

On a side note, Woodhead's DYAR is tops for players with <99 rushes, his 42.0% DVOA is actually below Rashad Jennings' (MJD's backup), so should we speculate that he, too, is as good as LT circa 2006? Two years ago, Felix Jones posted an 81.8% DVOA- should we go ahead and just label him the greatest RB of all time? Or should we acknowledge that the whole reason why intelligent statistical analysis, like that done by FO, breaks out guys with <100 rushes for a reason. Mostly, because it's unfair and misleading to compare them to guys who have a larger volume of carries, for all of the reasons that I just brought up.

Ice_Ice_Brady

Are some of these replies serious? Let's actually look at the original poster's question before contradicting it eight times in a single post.

Woodhead is far more valuable to a football team than LT right now. Not sure why anyone is saying LT is more valuable since he has a bigger workload; if he performs below average many situations, that does not make him valuable, just their only option. LT lacks breakaway speed at this point in his career, which is exactly why he is no longer the player he used to be; while he can still get some chunks of yardage and juke defenders now and then, his explosive impact no longer exists. Woodhead's speed makes him incredible valuable to any football team; many of the 40-yard gains he has put up has nothing to do with the Patriots schemes or personnel; Woodhead is just capable of doing it. If anyone wants to look at relative value, look no further than Kevin Faulk and Thomas Jones, the predecessors in these roles.

A few other points, besides Woodhead's blazing speed versus Tomlinson's old legs, and I might as well throw in the obvious acceleration advantage of Woodhead. First, it's obvious that Woodhead has better hands, while Tomlinson cannot catch anything that isn't put on his numbers. Second, as everyone except Mike Tannenbaum realized, Tomlinson just cannot play in cold weather; everything from the scowl on his face to his slumped shoulders suggests he'd rather be soaking up the sun in So Cal. Woodhead is a straight-up gamer who thrives in challenging weather.

RayClay

We're actually comparing one of the top running backs ever, who is on his way to another 1,000 yard season with a 4.3 YPC and 50 receptions to Danny Woodhead, who has been a pleasant surprise as a change of pace, 3rd down receiver type?

Oooooookay. Knock yourself out.

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Kasmir

That's an assertion; what's it based on? How do we know that Woodhead is situational player like Faulk instead of an every down back like Warrick Dunn or Ray Rice? He certainly took Faulk's role in the rotation, but that doesn't mean he has the same limitations (or the same strengths, for that matter). Faulk is a known quantity, and had his shot as an every down runner in 2003. Just because it didn't work out for Kevin then doesn't mean it can't work for Danny now. They are not the same player, and many players of Woodhead's size have been every down backs. We don't know what Danny's limitations are yet; why assume them?

RayClay

He might be 6 feet tall and just have bad posture, for all we know.

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