We should aggressively restructure Colvin in the offseason - Page 3 - New England Patriots Forums

solman · 11-27-2007, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

Are you talking about salary or cash received (salary + signing bonus +roster bonus?? There is a big difference.

I don't think we should care about anything except the $5.5M that is due in 2008.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

Why not?? If he is healthy, he should be able to get $5.5 million in new money.

We clearly disagree on this point. I think that a guaranteed healthy Colvin is worth roughly $5.5M/yr. (not much more)

This value would be significantly reduced by each of the following:

1. Entering the season coming off of an injury
2. Being highly injury prone (During his 5 years as a Patriot he will have missed HALF of his potential starts due to injury)
3. Trying to sign a contract after training camp has ended.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

So, what happens if Colvin gets injured during TC??

An excellent point. I would support rolling the dice on this. But if we were sure that Colvin wouldn't restructure (or just unable to stomach the risk) cuting him is a viable option. It would allow us to focus on finding his replacement.

solman · 11-27-2007, 10:46 PM

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Originally Posted by MoLewisrocks

Colvin's deal averaged $4M. Probably the only decent OLB you could acquire would want that or more, since for example AD gave us a break at $7M, and they wouldn't know the system. Rosie's entie signing bonus was only $6M - AD got $12M and $20M guaranteed. You don't get to beat sunk cost out of them due to injury...which is why I believe they did a 3 year extension with Seymour (which also allowed them to spread his cap over 4 years)...and you can't restructure a guy with only one year left.

Rosie was having a pretty darn good year for what he actually gets paid. He will likely get extended 3-4 years with his 2008 salary converted to signing bonus and some roster bonus structure or incentives as sweeteners for the out years. If we can keep a veteran OLB familiar with the system on board for $4M AAV per we will be lucky.

And at the end of the day what happens with Rosie will have nothing to do with Asante. They will offer him what they believe is his value to this team, and not a nickle more - even if they have extra cap space. He's not getting Brady or Seymour money period.

I think we really disagree about how good he is.

In my mind, AD is clearly in a different class from Colvin.

Last year Cato June signed a deal for $3M/yr.

London Fletcher signed for $5M/yr.

I don't see even a healthy Colvin being worth much more than $5.5M/yr.

BTW, I'd keep Rosie for $4M if it looked like he had fully recovered from his injury. I might even offer him a long term deal at that rate.

I'm saying we should use our leverage to GET that deal.

***Miguel*** · 11-28-2007, 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solman

We clearly disagree on this point. I think that a guaranteed healthy Colvin is worth roughly $5.5M/yr. (not much more)

Under your scenario (he is on the Patriots roster until September) my point is that Colvin is likely to get a deal that will pay at least $5.5 million in 2008. The $5.5 million may be part of a deal that is longer than a year.

Quote:

2. Being highly injury prone (During his 5 years as a Patriot he will have missed HALF of his potential starts due to injury)

That's an exaggeration. Prior to this Colvin has not missed an game since 2003. IMO, an injury-prone player misses games AND does not play in 59 consecutive games.

Quote:

3. Trying to sign a contract after training camp has ended.

There are several teams now way under the 2007 cap. I expect that there will be several teams way under the 2008 cap when TC ends.

Quote:

An excellent point. I would support rolling the dice on this. But if we were sure that Colvin wouldn't restructure (or just unable to stomach the risk) cuting him is a viable option. It would allow us to focus on finding his replacement.

So, if I am understanding you correctly.

Your plan is to ask Colvin to take a paycut in February. If he says no, keep him on the roster while the Patriots find his replacement and then cut him in September. So the Patriots will take the risk of having a player you have labeled "highly injury-prone" take part in mini-camps, TC, and preseason games. That does not sound like how the Patriots operate.

***Miguel*** · 11-28-2007, 06:49 AM

Let's say that the so-called injury prone Colvin is healthy throughout mini-camps, TC and the preseason games. Why would he then be afraid of not getting at least $5.5 million in the open market?? Why would a healthy Colvin agree in September to a paycut??

I can see Colvin agreeing to a paycut in February when he may be an unproven commodity but not in September.

satz · 11-28-2007, 07:15 AM

People forgot ... the last few years the top 10 players in NFL to created QB presure had rosie for 3 yrs in a row. how can you say he is not good as flecter who is older and not generating rosie`s performance.Also the guy is 31 and if you really watch he is the best cover OLB we have.how many times have you see him intercept rivers to LT and harrass LT. He is lighter of the OLB and against good RB on the outside is good in coverage.

Comparing OLB with good lateral movement [rosie] vs Bigger OLB with good downhill movement [AD] is confusing .Rosie runs around tackle AD runs through them different mode of attack again comparing 2 different types.Look at meriman last year in AD type roll excelled and this year in more rosie role is very limited .his sacks came in games where be played is traditional role. i will be worried if AD is going to asked to play to his weakness [lateral movemevt heavy role ].

11-28-2007, 07:20 AM

Check out the list of UFA backers projected for 2008, it looks pretty weak to me......

James Laurnaitus will be the 1st pick in 2008, he'll have to be.

Here's the link

http://footballsfuture.com/2008/nfl/freeagentsLB.html

solman · 11-28-2007, 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

Under your scenario (he is on the Patriots roster until September) my point is that Colvin is likely to get a deal that will pay at least $5.5 million in 2008. The $5.5 million may be part of a deal that is longer than a year.

I object to paying him $5.5M for 1 year.

I have no objection to paying Colvin $5.5M in 2008 as part of a 3 year $10M deal. I'd actively cheer such a deal. The point of my post is that we should use our leverage to get Colvin to sign such a deal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

That's an exaggeration. Prior to this Colvin has not missed an game since 2003. IMO, an injury-prone player misses games AND does not play in 59 consecutive games.

Colvin will have started 39 out of 80 possible regular season games. That has to be figured into the value placed on him, both by New England and by other franchises.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

There are several teams now way under the 2007 cap. I expect that there will be several teams way under the 2008 cap when TC ends.

I'm sure that MOST NFL franchises will be able to afford Colvin if we cut him late in TC. But players tend to get smaller contracts late in TC than they get when FA starts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

Your plan is to ask Colvin to take a paycut in February. If he says no, keep him on the roster while the Patriots find his replacement and then cut him in September. So the Patriots will take the risk of having a player you have labeled "highly injury-prone" take part in mini-camps, TC, and preseason games. That does not sound like how the Patriots operate.

I don't have any particular objection to cutting him earlier than that.

I'd prefer to keep him on the roster as an insurance policy. If Vrabel and AD get injured during TC 2008, paying Colvin $5.5M would suddenly look like a very good idea.

We did keep Milloy on the roster until very late in TC, even though we knew that negotiations were at an impasse.

Players who negotiate roster bonuses get the advantage of forcing us to make decisions early (but probably lose cash because of the insistence). Players who don't negotiate roster bonuses are at the team's mercy.

solman · 11-28-2007, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miguel

Let's say that the so-called injury prone Colvin is healthy throughout mini-camps, TC and the preseason games. Why would he then be afraid of not getting at least $5.5 million in the open market?? Why would a healthy Colvin agree in September to a paycut??

I can see Colvin agreeing to a paycut in February when he may be an unproven commodity but not in September.

I'd like to negotiate a paycut BEFORE the draft.

The prospect of being cut in September is part of our negotiating leverage in March.

Actually following through with this and cutting him in September is not my preferred outcome. If it were, the title of this thread would be "Is Colvin Done?"

***DaBruinz*** · 11-28-2007, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solman

Colvin is a very good player. He's likely worth $5.5M/year when healthy.

But he hasn't been healthy. And while GMs may not sit around saying "Colvin is made of glass", it will hurt his market value.

The Patriots should negotiate an extension with Colvin that costs substantially less than the $5.5M/yr he scheduled to earn in 2008.

If he doesn't, we should look for a new LB in free agency and (provided our depth at LB permits it) cut him on the eve of the 2008 season.

I'm just curious as to why you think that Colvin is hurt too often. Remind me of the other time he was hurt besides 2003. From his stats, he's played in every game since 2003. 59 straight. Now I know he wasn't that effective in the first few when he came back from the hip injury. But what other injuries are you referring to?

***DaBruinz*** · 11-28-2007, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solman

Colvin has started a total of 39 out of 75 regular season games since he arrived here. He's not being paid the big bucks to ride the bench.

Talk about disingenuous.
1st off, Colvin wasn't available for 75 games due to the fluke hip injury. Colvin was only available for 61 games.

While Colvin only "started" in 39 games, please don't forget that 15 of the games he didn't start in were the 1st year back from injury.. And even though Colvin didn't start in those games, he still played. Which was simply amazing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by solman

Not paying Colvin $5.5M dollars in 2008 is nonsense? Just how much do you think he is worth in 2008? Most teams don't even have one LB earning that much.

If we cut him on the eve of the 2008 season, he won't be able to earn anywhere near $5.5M. We should use this leverage to renegotiate his deal.

WOW. Just WOW. I think you need to look around the league a bit, Solman. There are a LOT of teams paying ONE LB over 5 million. The franchise number for LBs is 7.613 million. So there are at least 5 LBs in the league making over 5.5 million. The transition tag is 6.493 million for a LB. My guess is that at least 7 or 8 of those are over 5.5 million, if not all 10.

Also, The Patriots don't need to threaten Colvin. You need to be reminded that Colvin WILLINGLY restructured his contract in his 2nd year with the Pats. Also, the last time the Pats played that game of chicken (Lawyer Milloy) the Pats were the ones proven wrong. Milloy got more on the open market than what the Pats offered him.