Ice_Ice_Brady

Using an objective way, instead of the dumb old "points allowed" method to calculate the better defense, I used adjusted averages to figure out which team's defense is better.

Now, taking away the Patriots and Steelers from their opponents' statistics, here are their opponents averages when not playing the two teams.

Here are my conclusions.

Steelers opponents have scored 1520 points in 72 games, for an average of 21.1 points per game. The Steelers have allowed 14 ppg this season. The Steelers adjusted defensive differential is -7.1 ppg, so their defense is 7.1 points better than the average team against the same opponents.

Patriots opponents have scored 1755 points in 72 games, for an average of 24.4 points per game. The Patriots have allowed 16.3 ppg this season. The Patriots adjusted defensive differential is -8.1 ppg, so their defense is 8.1 points better than the average team against the same opponents.

The Patriots have shut down much tougher offenses, including Indianapolis and Dallas. While no mainstream pundit will bother to use this reasonable formula and will proclaim the Steelers the "#1 ranked defense" just remember that the truth lies here. Steelers fans are in for a rude awakening when they come to the Razor thinking they have an edge on defense.

One more note of interest.

On third down, the Pats' defense leads the league, allowing a first down only 30.3% of the time. The Steelers rank 13th, allowing a first down 41% of the time.

patsox23

interesting stuff, a point of view, and effort. THANK YOU for saving the site, at least for today. I love the newbies who bring it.

Amnorix

There are a million ways to cherry pick stats. Your analysis is good, but the STeelers are allowing half a yard less per rush, have a lower QB-rating against, are tied with us for most INTs, are better in the red zone than us (who isn't), etc.

We've forced more turnovers, and have a better offense.

Suffice to sayt hey're a VERY good team with a VERY good defense. I think we're better, but we'll see...

Ice_Ice_Brady

Agreed. Both teams have great defenses. But this formula makes more sense for "points allowed" than simply taking the overall points allowed.

Amnorix

That I agree with.

Basically, most stats are dumb. The NFL's system of ranking offense/defense strictly by yards gained/allowed is the stupidest of all systems.

Your formula is light-years ahead of that.

eom

and how often are both teams in nickel, and which running offenses have each played?

it's not like your own running game is the only way to kill clock.

PatriotsReign

I read somewhere this week that some experts are of the opinion the Patriots defense will improve significantly moving forward to the end of the season. I can see Seymour's return having a big impact, but what other rationale could they be using to make that statement?

Is it just the time of year the Patriots typically turn it up a notch?

sieglo

Pats ALWAYS turn it up on defense as the season goes on. Offense too, as a matter of fact. The team always looks incredible in weeks 12-16 versus earlier in the year. If this Pats team is the same, then we are in for a real treat.

SteelerSteve

Okay, while that logic is interesting I have a question for you, you really think that the Pats defense shutdown Dallas and Indy? didn't they both put up over 20 on you? sorry but it was your offense that beat Dallas, and as for the Colts game, well that was actually just a sloppy game by both teams imo, but they still put up twenty plus on you.

everlong

The Colts put up 20 and Dallas 27 but Dallas scored a defensive TD and had a long return put them in FG range and the defense held. So technically the defense gave up 17.

20 and 17 isn't bad vs those offenses. You can lay a similar claim against Cleveland and those 28 points but Denver hung 31 on you which is more than we've given up all year.

__________________
"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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