Metaphors

Much has been made about the Colts having the #1 pass defense in the league...which they do at 165.4 ypg (Pats at #5 with 181.5 ypg). Here are the QBs the Colts have played against (in order of passer rating):

#2 Garrard (injured and replaced by Gray)
#7 Garcia
#16 Cutler
#17 Schaub
#22 Brees
#31 V.Young
UNR Testeverde/Carr

The Colts have faced 8 receivers in the top 50 in receiving yards (J.Galloway #12 and S.Smith #21 being the best) and have faced 2 teams with multiple top 50 receivers:

HOU - K.Walter #23, O.Daniels #31 and A.Davis #37
TB - J.Galloway #12 and I.Hilliard #26

The Pats have faced the following QBs:

Romo #5
D.Anderson #6
C.Palmer #11
P.Rivers #13
Pennington #15
J.Campbell #24
Lemon #28
Edwards #29

The Pats have faced 12 receivers in the top 50 in receiving yards (C.Johnson #2 and B.Edwards #3 being the best) and have faced 4 teams with multiple top 50 receivers:

DAL - T.Owens #14, J.Witten #15 and P.Crayton #35
CLE - B.Edwards #3 and K.Winslow #16
CIN - C.Johnson #2, TJ Housh #7
NYJ - Cotchery #9 and Coles #27

The Pats have faced passing attacks comparable to the Colts (DAL #3 and CIN #5...maybe even CLE at #9) while the best the Colts have faced is HOU at #4.

Looks like the Pats come into Sunday's game with more experience with top QBs and receiving tandems (including TEs with Winslow, Gates, Witten), so I think it is easier to set expectations on how they will perform. I really can't get a good bead on the Colts pass D since there is limited top-tier experience to go on.

Nordberg

I have been saying it all season....

The Colts defense have not played an offense even close to what they will face Sunday.

Everytime they face a decent offense...a major part is missing

stevedogc

I was thinking the exact same thing. I think the so called "new and improved" Colts defense is a bit overrated. And dont forget that when the Colts faced Houston, Andre Johnson out with an injury.

FlyingElvis75

Weren't people in the media saying things like "the Patriots have not played a real offense" before the Dallas game, and "the Patriots have not played a real defense" before the Washington game? Is there stuff like that about the Colts now?

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Bobs My Uncle

The biggest intrigue to me is seeing how this Colts defense responds to a) the new weapons now on the Pats offense and b) the influx of SPEED and talent now on this Patriots offense.

The WR positions with this years Pats offense is significantly different than the one that the Colts saw last time these two teams squared off. How quick will they adapt?

Further, the amount of speed and new talent that this years Pats offense will be trotting out onto the field this time around is so much improved over last year that I expect it will take the Colts time to adjust.

By the time they adapt and adjust it may be too late.

Nordberg

That's a real good point. I hear everyone saying how much these teams know each other. But the Colts defensive coaches and personal have not played this offense yet.

skri65

Good info, I didn't realize the significant difference in competition.

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"The Colts shock and awe offense ... was shockingly awful." - quote from NFL Game Of The Week (2005 div vs Indy)

Amnorix

First, the standard NFL yardstick of yards per game (for both offense and defnese) for ranking a team is extremely silly.

The Colts pass defense is quite good. Their QB rating against is 3rd, at 69.9. Slightly ahead of the Pats at 5th with a 73.0 against.

They are towards the bottom with 12 sacks, to the Pats 22.

On the other hand, they are very good at preventing the long game. They've allowed 7 passes of 20+ yards and 2 of 40+ Yards. The Patriots, meanwhile, have allowed 16 of 20+ yards but 0 of 40+ yards.

Both teams are ballhawks, with the Pats at 11 and the Colts at 9 interceptions for the year.

Then, of course, you would try to adjust for the opponents they have each played.

Lookng just at team QB efficiency (to keep this short), the Pats have played Dallas (4th), SD (7th), Cleveland (8th), Cincy (9), Jets (21), Redskins (23), Bills (25) and Dolphins (27), showing an odd distribution away from the middle, as they've only played teams in the top and bottom 10 of the league. Figure that sort of averages out (4 in each category), so their highly ranked pass defense is "real" -- i.e. not overyl skewed by having played only weak pass offenses.

The Colts have played TB (5), Jax (12), Denver (14), Carolina (15), Houston (16), NO (20), and Ten (28).

Based on this somewhat limited analysis, the Pats and Colts have had roughly equal difficulty in the competition they have faced. The Colts have played 1 top 10 pass offense, 6 in the "middle", and 1 at the bottom. This distribution also works out to be about average, more or less.

So the two teams' pass defenses both seem to be quite good.

indycolts685

I understand where your coming from when you say that because we really haven't played any decent offense, but last years defense could be scored on by high school teams, so I do think its improved alot over last year.. I guess the ultimate test is Sunday to see if we have any kind of defense at all.

sieglo

I wonder what the numbers would be if you took the average QB rating of the teams they play, minus the average QB rating against -- a kind of measure of how much each defense depresses the effectiveness of the opposing QB.