Vegas Line Makes Me a Little Nervous - New England Patriots Forums

aluminum seats · 09-15-2010, 10:44 AM

Pats are currently favored by 1.5, which seems absurdly low. I understand the preseason hype of the Jets affected their initial valuation, but coming off that impressive Pats' win and abysmal Jets' loss, you'd expect at least a 3 point line. Seems that Vegas wants Pats' money to come in. Hmmm. Actually, maybe the Jets' fools are still out there. That must be it.

Two other things while I'm at it:

I expect multiple picks from Sanchez this week. Why? He's getting a ton of flak about instantly going to his checkdown receiver. Being called "scared" is a sure fire way to make an insecure guy start slinging it to show he's NOT scared. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jets' first play is the deep ball.

Second, I was thinking about the Pats & Jets offensive & defensive units, and how you'd rate them. Obviously, after one week the Jets' offense is the weakest of the four, by far. Beyond that, how do they rate? I'd say 1) Pats' offense 2) Jets' defense 3) Pats' defense 4) Jets' offense. Actually, I guess it's hard to make an argument for any other order.

Intommywetrst · 09-15-2010, 10:46 AM

Ok, this is not my area of expertise but I BELIEVE that the home team always gets 3 points so we're actually favored by 4.5.

gregz0r · 09-15-2010, 10:49 AM

If it makes you feel any better most sites have them in the 2 - 2.5 range now. I expect it to be around 4 on gameday...

danam404 · 09-15-2010, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aluminum seats

Pats are currently favored by 1.5, which seems absurdly low. I understand the preseason hype of the Jets affected their initial valuation, but coming off that impressive Pats' win and abysmal Jets' loss, you'd expect at least a 3 point line. Seems that Vegas wants Pats' money to come in. Hmmm. Actually, maybe the Jets' fools are still out there. That must be it.

Two other things while I'm at it:

I expect multiple picks from Sanchez this week. Why? He's getting a ton of flak about instantly going to his checkdown receiver. Being called "scared" is a sure fire way to make an insecure guy start slinging it to show he's NOT scared. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jets' first play is the deep ball.

Second, I was thinking about the Pats & Jets offensive & defensive units, and how you'd rate them. Obviously, after one week the Jets' offense is the weakest of the four, by far. Beyond that, how do they rate? I'd say 1) Pats' offense 2) Jets' defense 3) Pats' defense 4) Jets' offense. Actually, I guess it's hard to make an argument for any other order.

Didnt we have this thread last week, and a voice of reason explained that vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win... but rather public opinion...

SVN · 09-15-2010, 10:53 AM

iam fine with it. everyone is reacting to 1game. for all the bad play by the jets they lost by 1 pt to a very good defensive team. We are not the same defense as balitmore and iam quite sure the jets wont gives 4-5 1st downs via penalties or by 1 of 11 on 3rd down vs us. LT will be able to run the ball on us and its going to be a very close game inspite of what people here think after monday night that we are going to crush them.

just my opinion

Sicilian · 09-15-2010, 10:54 AM

The line really has no direct correlation to who Vegas thinks will win, but more the betting trends. They want as close to a 50/50 spread between the two teams as they can get, because over time that will net them consistent money.

Quote:

Originally Posted by aluminum seats

I'd say 1) Pats' offense 2) Jets' defense 3) Pats' defense 4) Jets' offense. Actually, I guess it's hard to make an argument for any other order.

I would put Pats offense as 1a and Jets defense as 1b for now (might change by season's end). They're very close.

SuperPatsFan · 09-15-2010, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danam404

Didnt we have this thread last week, and a voice of reason explained that vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win... but rather public opinion...

The lines are determined by money flow -- no more, no less.

aluminum seats · 09-15-2010, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPatsFan

The lines are determined by money flow -- no more, no less.

Actually, that's not entirely true. Without going too far off topic w/this, for business purposes I've had to deal with the gaming community for a few years, and there are "trap" lines.

danam404 · 09-15-2010, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPatsFan

The lines are determined by money flow -- no more, no less.

public opinion=money flow.. right.

bottom line is vegas doesnt care who wins.

denverpatsfan · 09-15-2010, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SVN

iam fine with it. everyone is reacting to 1game. for all the bad play by the jets they lost by 1 pt to a very good defensive team. We are not the same defense as balitmore and iam quite sure the jets wont gives 4-5 1st downs via penalties or by 1 of 11 on 3rd down vs us. LT will be able to run the ball on us and its going to be a very close game inspite of what people here think after monday night that we are going to crush them.

just my opinion

You are correct sir. gonna be a close game. No way the Jests play as bad or the Pats play as well against that D. Close game means a FG could win it for either team. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jests win their SB against us again.