Oswlek

It seems that the pressure of the upcoming game has gotten to some of us fans, both "Boys and Pats alike. I thought that I would start a thread that is designed purely for analytical purposes. I am going to ask a couple questions that I hope will prompt some serious discussion. After a few people answer, subsequent posters can feel free to either answer the quesitons again, or respond to prior answers.

Please drop the use of thngs like, or or or "WTF!" or any other derogatory comment in this thread.

1) What is a strength of the opposing team that you feel can exploit your team?

2) What perceived weakness of the opposing team do you feel that your team can exploit?

3) What other factors do you feel will impact this game?

Thanks for playing.

__________________
"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

Oswlek

Alright, I'll go first.

1) I always worry about passing offenses that can make something out of nothing. Carolina and the Jets have made a living in the past out of big plays that occured long after NE stopped the original play call. I fully expect Dallas to have at least 2 20+ plays that happen due to Romo's athleticism.

To counter this, like a person said on Patsfans, I won't be surprised if NE plays more 4-3 style looks like they did in SB 39, to use containing pass rushes. I have no idea what Romo's passing numbers look like both in and out of the pocket, but anecdotally, he seems more dangerous making plays running around then he does as a pocket passer.

2) I just broke down both Dallas' and NE's passing stats based on 3 categories; ypa, comp % and passer rating. They look remarkably similar. Check it out:

Dallas
6.3 ypa
58.4%
64.8 PR

NE
6.3 ypa
58.8%
70.9 PR.

When you did deeper, however, things look quite a bit different. I also broke down the averages of the opponents that each team faced. (Caveat: I realize that I averaged averages and the dangers that this entails, but with five games each, I think that these issues should be minimal)

Dallas' Opponent Averages (+/- Dallas' numbers)
6.2 ypa (-.1)
59.3% (+.9)
69.6 PR (+4.8)

NE's Opponent Averages (+/- NE's numbers)
7 ypa (+.7)
62.5% (+3.7)
81.8 PR (+10.9)

NE has done significantly better against the pass than Dallas despite their overall nembers looking good. For all intents and purposes, Dallas has held teams to their average, which should be frightening to Dallas fans considering NE's averages (8.75/74.1%/128.7).

The sacks show simlar results. Dallas is tied at 11 with 12 sacks and NE is tied for 7th at 14. Again, though look at the opposition:

Dallas
Oppenents allowed 57 total sacks for an average 2.3/game. 12 total sacks equates 2.4/game.

NE
Oppenents allowed 49 total sacks for an average 2/game. 14 total sacks equates 2.8/game.

Again, it is clear that NE has performed better in spite of similar overall numbers.

3) I didn't run through a similar comparison with the offenses because, frankly, they are both excellent. I did look at run defenses because i thought that I would find similar results. Surprisingly both NE and Dallas have allowed 3.6 ypc against teams that rush for 4.

__________________
"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

wartowne

I think one of the biggest matchups that will determine the outcome of this game will be the LB'ers covering J. Witten. The Patriots weren't too sharp in keeping A. Gates under wraps, and I'm also interested to see the outcome of this matchup because it could potentially forecast the type of performance we'll see out of Dallas Clark when NE goes to Ind.

I know the story was that Adalius Thomas can run like a safety to keep these guys covered, yet I don't think he took that matchup very often against Gates. Did anyone happen to observe our coverage scheme for Gates? I remember observing a nickle corner or saftey often coming down to cover up on Winslow last week.

My hope is that either the pressure up front inspires the Dallas OC to keep the TE back to protect, or that they can spare a guy like Rodney to cover him, which would require that Asante or Hobbs get put up on an island against TO or Curtis. It'll be very interesting to me to see what role Thomas plays in trying to stop Dallas's multifaceted offensive attack.

richpats

Containing Romo. That's all we need to do. If he gets to roll out and hit Witten all day then it will be a shootout (at best).

Oswlek

Anyone? Bueller?

__________________
"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

FirstAndGoal

I still think the Dallas run game is going to be a key matchup. If we can't stop the run against their big o-line with 4 people, it could change the game.

The same is true for our running game. If they can keep us from running with any success with their front 3 or 4, they're going to be able to keep more people in coverage.

I do think we'll be able to get pressure but I the second half might be an issue.

FlyingElvis75

Did you mean their pass *defense* stats, i.e. passing stats of opponents in games vs. the Patriots? 'Cause those sure don't look like the "official" numbers...

Oswlek

Yes. Oops.

__________________
"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

The_Dragon

Won't have as detailed an analysis as yours Oswlek but I'll give my opinion on it.

There are 2 things that worry me about Dallas:

1. The Pass Rush - anytime I've seen Dallas they've been able to generate a great pass rush - as we know from playing Miami, Jets on occasions etc it's something or O-Line can struggle with and consequently Brady struggles. The O-Line, in fairness has been excellent this year but this will be a big test I feel.

2. The balance of the Dallas offense - they have a good running game, an excellent T-End and 2 receivers that need to be watched and, possibly will cause us to use our safeties stay back.


As regards exploiting the Dallas defense I would imagine that:

1. the loss of the Dallas NT earlier in the season might lead to NE to pounding the ball in the running game to see how the replacement NT holds up. This would also slow down the Dallas pass rush - see above - and setup the play action. We know how successful the 3 TE and 1 WR formation has been for Brady and Moss this season thus far.

2. The Pats might look at exploiting R Williams in pass coverage. He has a habit of giving up bad plays in th passing game and the Pats are a team that can now take complete advantage of that. If Williams is the help over the top on Moss then I could see NE running some plays to try and take advantage of this weakness.

As for other factors that might affect the game:

- how will Romo perform after Monday night's nightmare? If things don't start well it could be interesting.
- what kind of defensive scheme will BB come up with for Romo? I imagine they will try to make him stay in the pocket , like they do with V Young. Make Romo score on them from there.
- Will Newman cover Moss and will he be able to do it without help? I rate Newman - if he can stop Moss on his own it will go a long way to Dallas stopping the NE Offense.

Oswlek

The pass rush should be dominant based on how often people bring it up, but they have sacked QBs almost exactly as frequently as those teams normally allowed. I will grant you that they might be excellent pressure that doesn't lead to sacks, but if so, the rest of the secondary must be really bad because they have allowed QBs to do what they normally do.

Frankly, I fully expect a huge day from Brady. The loss of the NT hasn't lead to any major issues for them yet, but they haven't face anything close to NE yet. The best QB they faced is Manning, whom they hurt during the game. But the Giants' OL and RBs aren't up to NE's level assuming Laurence plays.

Dallas' offense is what I worry about, but not much else. And I believe that NE can minimize the run game with only 6 guiys committed, which should allow them to use an extra guy in coverage.

__________________
"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."