FlyingElvis75

Hi all...longtime lurker here, just thought I'd share some thoughts on the upcoming game vs. the Bengals.

Below are major defensive stats for the Pats so far:

Stat (NFL Rank)
Points per Game: 11.7 (2nd)
Total Yards per Game: 207 (1st)
Pass Yards per Game: 133 (2nd)
Rush Yards per Game: 74 (4th)
First Downs per Game: 14 (2nd)

As we know, those are pretty nice, but how much do they mean, especially in terms of rankings? The first thing many people do when they see gaudy stats like that is to question the quality of the opposition.

The Bills are obviously in bad shape, but the media has made a lot of the fact that the Jets and Chargers were playoff teams last year, and they especially emphasize that SD was on top of the league and had very little player turnover. But we all know that last year means squat this year, so what are they REALLY like this year?

Well, one thing to look at is how the Jets, Chargers, and Bills have played against opponents other than the Pats. The following are the offensive stats for the Jets, Chargers, and Bills in the six games in which they have NOT played NE, as well as what their NFL ranking would be if they were a single team:

Pts/G: 16.5 (25th)
TY/G: 294 (25th)
PY/G: 203 (20th)
RY/G: 91 (22nd)
FD/G: 18 (19th)

Not exactly elite numbers there - in fact, they're around the bottom of the league in every category. In short, our opponents' offenses have been terrible so far this year, even when we're not playing them. Yes, the Bills suck and will drag any average down, but the averages for the Jets and Chargers alone are not much better:

Pts/G: 20.5 (17th)
TY/G: 339 (16th)
PY/G: 256 (10th)
RY/G: 83 (28th)
FD/G: 21 (5th)

Now take a look at Cincinnati's offense through three games:

Pts/G: 31 (4th)
TY/G: 393 (5th)
PY/G: 301 (2nd)
RY/G: 92 (21st)
FD/G: 23 (2nd)

It seems like our D has looked good so far in some part because the competition has been pretty awful. Granted, the Bengals have played mostly cream puffs so far and the Chargers have had probably the toughest schedule of anyone on this list, but it seems like Monday may show us whether our D can stand up to a real test (without Seymour and Harrison).

But we probably all figured that, anyway.

On the bright side, the D has made those opponents' offenses look even worse than they otherwise are...they've allowed 4.8 fewer Pts/G, 87/70/17 fewer Total/Pass/Rush Yds/G, and 4 fewer FD/G.

SVN

i think our secondary has a big test this week

BelichickFan

No doubt we won't be pitching a shutout next week. However, those numbers are a little inflated by the 51-45 shootout the Bengals ended up with against the Browns - I don't think either teams' offense is as good or defense is as bad as that game makes them look.

jbb9s

Some good research there!

It should be interesting to see if Hobbs or Asante match up on Ocho Cinco.

BelichickFan

We did fine against them a year ago :

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=261001004

Their height worries me but the pure matchup of a power running game and downfield passing game worries me less than teams that rely on short to medium passing.

RPCity

Shouldn't you, by that same logic, look at the defenses Cinci has played against so far and see how they've played thus far against the other two teams they have each faced?

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This is all that I care about.

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BB: "In New England, all we do is win Super Bowls."

BelichickFan

They've played the 8th (Baltimore), 25th (Seattle), 31st (Cleveland) defenses - although with only 3 games in the samples are awfully small and largely (1/3) influenced by the game vs. Cincy or NE.

Imperator

the way I see it, the Offense compliments the Defense and vice versa. Cincy has a good offense, but their D is trash. Whereas the Pats are far more balanced on both sides of the ball. So even though you can paint it as strong O vs strong D. it really wouldn't matter much when we're driving it down the field at will, whilst the Bengals have a hard time moving against us. Besides, I'm willing to bet that our run defense is gonna make them one dimensional anyway.

khayos

I think we have all the respect in the world for Chad Johnson and TJ makes that WR corps a real threat. We haven't faced a real WR corps yet.

patsox23

Cincy's a really tough offense, OBVIOUSLY, but - it's worth noting that the small sample-size nature of ALL of these stats make them somewhat grain-of-salt-y. For example, a full 1/3 of the numbers for our opponents are there because WE played them and shut them down (or torched them, as the case may be).

I think at this time of year, it's best just to hope we continue to look good, and hope that good defense generally stops good offense. Another way to look at it - what's the least number of points you can see THIS Pats offense getting against that putrid Bengal D? Say...27? 30? That's if we play terribly (or their D plays out of their heads and above their average).

Okay, so the offense gets 27 points. Are we seriously thinking that we won't be able to keep Cincy from scoring 28 points? I know I'm not. We win.