In ESPN TMQ - Accuscore says give the punt the boot - I like it :) - Page 2 - New England Patriots Forums

spacecrime · 09-04-2007, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PATRIOTSFANINPA

Do you have any statistics.link to back that up patfanken?...

No link, but we went for it on 4th down AV's last year when we were in what I considered his FG range.

Seven Nation Army · 09-04-2007, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gwedd

Fellers,

One of the things that has troubled me for years, is why so many teams will risk punting when backed up within their own 5 yard line, or punting from inside their end zone.

If you are ahead, why not simply take the safety and then get a free kick from further out? That's what BB did in the Denver game. He knew the quality of our defense, and rather than risk giving Denver field position on our side of the 50, he took the two point for the safety, and then we ended up being place Denver way back on their side of the field.

That situation only worked because the Patriots could afford to concede a safety. And, no, the Patriots were not ahead when they took the safety in Denver in November 2003. They were trailing by one and essentially decided to play for overtime by giving Denver a three point lead. Your post implies that taking a safety is a cure-all for "troubling" 5-yard line punt attempts. It only works if you can give up two points and still reasonably expect to tie or win the game.

Seven Nation Army · 09-04-2007, 03:20 PM

There is an article from the New York Times which proves the Patriots punt less often and go for two-point conversions less often than the average NFL team.

Ideas & Trends: Super Bowl Economics; Incremental Analysis, With Two Yards to Go

By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: February 1, 2004

THE academic paper that David Romer began writing two years ago did not look like something that could determine the outcome of a Super Bowl. Sure, it was an analysis of whether professional football teams punt more often than is rational, but it seemed intended mainly for the amusement of sports fans who happen to be professors.

Professor Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, used the phrases ''Bellman equation'' and ''dynamic-programming analysis'' -- in the paper's title, no less. His footnotes cited work published in Econometrica, Cognitive Science and other publications that are not exactly must-reads in N.F.L. locker rooms.

But when his conclusion -- teams punt too much -- began getting attention last summer, a reporter asked Bill Belichick, the coach of the New England Patriots, about the paper.

''I read it,'' he said, according to The Boston Herald. ''I don't know much of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he has some valid points.''

http://select.nytimes.com/search/res...AB0894DC404482

Flying Fungi · 09-04-2007, 04:00 PM

situational football

you hear it so much that you almost tend to overlook it's applications

4th down is the height of situational footbal--time of the game, field position, score, team record, point in the season, and a host of intangibles go into the decision here in NE.

This is not to be confused by any decisions made by Herm Edwards or Marty Schottenheimer.

Nordy · 09-04-2007, 04:30 PM

His analysis is not to be taken seriously because he did it wrong. He uses average gain when he should be using the median.

Oswlek · 09-04-2007, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nordy

His analysis is not to be taken seriously because he did it wrong. He uses average gain when he should be using the median.

TMQ is thought provoking, but he manipulates numbers too much and he repeats himself to no end. If you read his articles from 3 years ago, you know exactly what he will say this year.

brdmaverick · 09-04-2007, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctpatsfan77

As far as BB going for it on 4th down, it's worth pointing out that a lot of those situations would have been kicks, not punts.

I also pointed out the rather interesting fact that none of Gostkowski's kicks last season started out with a snap between the 20 and the 30 (i.e., a 37-yard to 47-yard attempt); every time the Pats had 4th down there, they went for it.

that is an interesting stat