PATRIOTSFANINPA

San Diego, Denver and New England are the 3 teams that I think are a virtual lock to be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl this year.

I don't care about that crap statement that you must beat the man to be the man because in Indy's case they have simply lost way too many guys in critical areas of defense and their best offensive lineman to be a dangerous SB challenger this year - Indy is not New England and can't just replace anyone with success, the colts have lived off of getting top players in the draft and not losing much of their team. This year is different,thus comes the Super Bowl curse of having the nucleus of your team breaking up after a championship. They still have Manning, Harrison and Sanders but it won't be enough for me to put them in the top tier.

Jacksonville has their big chance to overtake Indy in the south and their defense may be the best in the league when all is said and done so they will be a team to worry about although the QB issue may be their downfall and keep them out of my elite ranking

Baltimore has a great defense but quarterback issues.

Cincinnati has a great offense but their defensive secondary is questionable.

Jets are a one year wonder.

Pittsburgh needs to adjust to a new coach after all the years of Cowher and may take a year or two to be back to prominence,this is a team not as talented as SD and needs time,also adjustment to what I think will be less smash mouth and more of a passing team as Roethlisberger wants it to be.

Everybody else is an also-ran unless we see a miracle cinderella season from one of these bottom tier teams, not likely

I think San Diego is so damn talent laden that it will easily overcome the coaching changes and a below average coach in Turner - Guys like Tomlinson and Merriman can make an average coach look great so don't think they are done or are in transition, they are a VERY dangerous team.

Denver has Shanahan and a potential Elway clone although an unproven Cutler and a heck of a secondary which will dominate most teams so they are a dangerous team too, Javon Walker will have a MONSTER season IMO.

So overall here is how I see the AFC....

ELITE TEAMS TO BE AFC RESPRESENTATIVE IN SUPER BOWL...
New England,San Diego and Denver

TEAMS ON THE BUBBLE JUST OUTSIDE OF ELITE
Indianapolis,Jacksonville

TEAMS IN CONTENTION BUT NOT QUITE A DANGEROUS TEAM
Baltimore,Pittsburgh,Cincinnati,Jets

TEAMS TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR OR LONGER
Miami,Cleveland,Houston,Tennessee,Buffalo,Kansas City,Oakland

PatsWickedPissah

Neglecting a diminished Indy is utter folly. The playoffs are only a few games. Anything can happen, players get hurt, sick with the flu, key bad calls, hot streak, matchups that subtly favor a team, whatever. If you'd modify LOCK to 'highest probability' I'd be more comfortable.

__________________
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as "bad luck." RAH

patsox23

Couldn't agree more. Indy is a great team.

Pujo

How can 3 teams be a virtual lock?

And I wouldn't count Indy out, as long as Peyton is their QB they're in the hunt.

PatsFan37

As long as the Patriots have Brady and Belichick, they'll be contenders.

As long as the Colts have Manning and Harrison and Wayne and Freeney, they'll be contenders.

As long as Denver has Shanahan and Cutler, they'll be, oops, Cutler, did I say Cutler? For a moment, there, I thought I said Elway.

Let's give the fellow a few snaps before we dole out the anointing oil.

PATRIOTSFANINPA

I just can't remember when a team who just won the Super Bowl lost 2 key members of their secondary and a guy that held oncoming rushers of the QBs back for so many years, NE may have done it,other teams not so lucky.

True Indy is still talented but I simply don't think that Defense will be any better than it was last year, probably worse and a miracle turnaround in the playoffs AGAIN does not seem realistic to me.

The defense consists of Freeney, Sanders and then just a bunch of average guys IMO.

The only way I see Indy going far into the playoffs is they are going to have to put up an average of 30 points per game ALL year because I don't see their defense stopping teams too much...and that is with an offense with a 35 year old Harrison and hoping Gonzalez replaces Stokely adequately - Won't be easy.

TeamPats

I wouldn't rule out the Steelers either or Cinci completely, or hell anyone. The Patriots live and breath by an any given sunday approach...the fans should be no different.

__________________
In front of his team after a 28-10 loss to the Packers in 2002, Belichick said: "We have a lot of smart guys in this room, but on the football field we play like a bunch of f------- morons. If you are one of the players flinching at the harshness of these words, you might as well begin packing. There is no way you are going to last as a New England Patriot."

Oswlek

I have to agree that the Colts will be a factor. I am one of the most vocal members here that they benefitted from a substantial amount of luck last year and I don't think they will make it to the SB, but they are still a good team.

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PATRIOTSFANINPA

I never said ANYWHERE the Colts are a bad team,I said they are just below an Elite team this year,Thats how I see it.

The Colts are a very good team and about the 4h or 5th best AFC team,Just not Elite IMO

ClevTrev

Amen. The Colts haven't gone away. Yeah, they've had some roster changes, but now must show they belong, just as the Patriots have in the past, with their play this season. They are still dangerous and a contender at the highest level.

Agree with the Denver assessment, and while San Diego is loaded with talent, the coaching changes will have some influence in the first half of the season. Let's see how well Turner can coach adversity. He's definitely a "player's coach," and that may be exactly what the team doesn't need in light of all the changes. We shall see...