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Its all about history. The last time we were this active in FA was 2003.....
Need I say more.........
Figure it out for yourself. We're winning the next 2 of 3.
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My favorite place to look for this stuff is ticketreserve.com. It's a site that sells "options" to buy a ticket to the superbowl for face value. If you have an option for the Patriots, and the Patriots win the AFCCG, you have the right to buy a super bowl ticket for the face value. Once the site sells out of its inventory of options, they can be actively traded on the site. It's kind of a cross between the stock market and sports.
It's actually a hoot to watch while games are going on, particularly at the end of the season and during the playoffs. When the patriots were up 21-3, for example in the AFC CG, you could buy colts options for very little, and patriots options were selling for upwards of $2,000.
Anyway, patriots options opened at $124, and the last transaction was for $480. The current low offer to sell is $509. The Colts, by comparison, last transacted at $310 and the low offer to sell right now is $315. The Chargers last transacted at $378 and the low offer to sell is $379.
The reason I like the site for figuring out what smart people with money at stake think about teams' chances in the upcoming season is that it's a lot less mystical than the whole vegas thing, which I don't really understand. Instead, it's an actual market -- you can see actual bids to buy and offers to sell, so you really know what people are thinking about the game. It's different from the vegas odds, because those are for who will win the super bowl, while you "win" on ticketreserve so long as your team gets to the super bowl. But right now, for $509, you can buy an option to buy a super bowl ticket if the Pats make the super bowl.
When you figure that super bowl tickets are worth at least $2,500 each even in a down market, essentially, ticketresere has the patriots at about 1.5 to 1 to make the suepr bowl. (You would pay $500 for a ticket option, plus another $450 or so face value of the ticket, for a $950 investment, to "win" about $2,500 if the patriots win the AFC CG.) But they actually are worth more, because you can actively trade the option, even if you have no intention of going to the game. For example, if you had purchased an option on the patriots several weeks ago at $124, you could sell it today for $500 -- which is a bit different from vegas betting tickets.
I'm not affiliated with the site or anything -- I just think it's kind of neat to check out. They do the same thing for the NBA championship and other events.
I agree it's a cool site, and a very interesting data point. however, regarding these 'odds' vs Vegas odds, I think you should balance the 2.
Vegas odds tell us (usually) what the bookies perception of the public is.
ticketreserve.com tells us what the public is actually trading, data which can be skewed by rich individuals or arbitrage players or all kinds of things.
Um Don't you guys realize making us the favorite to win the Super Bowl is a Jinx?....Can anyone remember the last time Vegas had a team favored to win the Super Bowl and they actually did?
I can't remember any year in recent memory of at least 15 years that the favorite team on the board actually won it all....and that includes the 2003 Champion Patriots who won again in 2004,That year I believe they were 8-1
Last edited by PATRIOT64; 03-20-2007 at 11:37 PM..
Um Don't you guys realize making us the favorite to win the Super Bowl is a Jinx?....Can anyone remember the last time Vegas had a team favored to win the Super Bowl and they actually did?
I can't remember any year in recent memory of at least 15 years that the favorite team on the board actually won it all....and that includes the 2003 Champion Patriots who won again in 2004,That year I believe they were 8-1
Oh well.... Like a million sports writers and "experts" picked the colts to win the superbowl. Didn't jinx them.....
I agree it's a cool site, and a very interesting data point. however, regarding these 'odds' vs Vegas odds, I think you should balance the 2.
Vegas odds tell us (usually) what the bookies perception of the public is.
ticketreserve.com tells us what the public is actually trading, data which can be skewed by rich individuals or arbitrage players or all kinds of things.
interesting stuff anyways
That's true. You also have the fan effect on ticketreserve. You probably have people willing to pay $400 for a super bowl option on ticket reserve, who would never consider actually betting $400 on sports, even though that's exactly what he's doing. He's betting $400, plus the face value of the ticket, for a chance to win something he could buy on ebay for $2500. But since he only really wants a super bowl ticket if his team makes it, it doesn't seem like gambling.
The reality, though, is that you'd be just as well off betting $400 on the patriots to make the super bowl (if that was actually a bet you could make in vegas, and it might be for all I know), and then simply using your winnings if you win to get a ticket to the game.
So I'm sure it's skewed, but at least for figuring out the relative differences between the teams, it's a neat way to think about it: Patriots are worth $500, Chargers are worth $380, Colts are worth $315, and the Broncos are worth $164. So, one way to look at it would be that according to what people are willing to pay to buy super bowl options, the Patriots have the best chance of getting there, the Chargers have the second best chance at about a 76 percent chance of what the patriots have, the Colts have about a 62 percent as good chance as the Patriots, and the Broncos have less than half the chance (actually about 32.8 percent).
Now that I think about it, I would say that the Broncos are the best value on that site (although I haven't really looked at the NFC teams). If I knew I really really wanted to go to the super bowl, and I was looking for the best value to give myself a chance, the Broncos at $164 seems pretty darned good.
Also, my calculation of the odds in my prior post was not accurate. You have to take the face value of the ticket out of the equation, because you're never at risk of actually losing that money. You're not gambling it. You only have to pay it if you "win."
So, let's say that the market value on ebay and stub hub of a super bowl ticket is $2500. If you risk $500 on a patriots option, you're really betting $500 to win $2000, which is the value of the super bowl ticket minus the face value of $500 or so that you have to pay for it. So you're really "betting" $500 that the patriots will win the super bowl, for a chance of winning $2000 -- or 4 for 1 (which is the equivalent of 3 to 1. In Vegas you get your original bet back plus your winnings; on ticket reserve, you pay the option price no matter what plus the face value of the ticket).
That's way way better odds than vegas. If I was going to bet $500 in Vegas on the patriots to WIN the superbowl, and I'd only get paid $1000 if I was right (plus my $500 bet back), I'd way rather bet $500 for a super bowl ticket so long as they just win the AFC CG.
Anyway, sorry if I hijacked this thread or I'm boring everyone. Maybe I'm the only one who is interested in the detail of this thing.
Last edited by PatsFaninAZ; 03-21-2007 at 12:08 AM..
Oh well.... Like a million sports writers and "experts" picked the colts to win the superbowl. Didn't jinx them.....
What planet were you on?
NOONE in the media thought the Colts were going to win the Super Bowl last year once the playoffs began until the Colts were actually in the big game.
Did you remember how pathetic the Defensive Line was and everyone thought Larry Johnson,Jamal Lewis and Maroney/Dillon (in that order) were going to run roughshod over them?..They fooled everyone with a very solid D-Line performance in the entire playoffs and it seems that when you least expect a team to win the big one,Many times they do.
Look at Indy last year,Pittsburgh in 2005,Patriots in 2003-2004 ect:..There seems to be a pattern developing there, - Teams lately are winning it when no one expects you to.
Last edited by PATRIOT64; 03-21-2007 at 12:16 AM..
NOONE in the media thought the Colts were going to win the Super Bowl last year once the playoffs began until the Colts were actually in the big game.
Did you remember how pathetic the Defensive Line was and everyone thought Larry Johnson,Jamal Lewis and Maroney/Dillon (in that order) were going to run roughshod over them?..They fooled everyone with a very solid D-Line performance in the entire playoffs and it seems that when you least expect a team to win the big one,Many times they do.
Look at Indy last year,Pittsburgh in 2005,Patriots in 2003-2004 ect:..There seems to be a pattern developing there, - Teams lately are winning it when no one expects you to.
Before the season started, a ton of writers picked the colts to win the sb. A lot of sports writers had the colts. I was talking about before the season started............
....
Anyway, sorry if I hijacked this thread or I'm boring everyone. Maybe I'm the only one who is interested in the detail of this thing.
Whoa there, AZ! No apology.
Markets open to all ... and price levels set by real folks bidding with cash ...
are by far the best way to establish the proper prices of things.
You're describing a "bettor" way to do it ... even though
bookmakers' lines and spreads still happen to be the best known way for fans to participate.
Re: OnLine Bettors Favor Pats to Win Super Bowl
Linear Mode
