PATRIOT64

The fact that we addressed most of our concerns in certain postions EXCEPT ONE AREA which is the secondary leads me to believe BB and FO have something in fold like giving up #24-#27 for a higher pick like in the upper teens area,Possibly looking to grab Landry,Houston or Revis..Although it is possible that Houston or Revis will be there at 24 anyway but I think we may be trading upward to a team to grab Landry.

Since we are in decent shape in most areas,although we can certainly use another ILB if not before the draft in FA then as an decent early draft pick, we could still get a quality rookie in round 3 to fill the need.

Either way with the FA signings we did I think that screams a move up in round one on draft day and some team will take our 24-27 picks with a sneaky BB offer....not 100% sure but looks like it right now.

mgteich

While I agree that the signings allow us to be more flexible, I would note that we will spend more in 2006 cap money on the free agent defensive back signed than on the rest of the signings.

danny88

I agree, there is no reason to trade up.

KontradictioN

Trading up would be the worst idea ever. We need to work on the defensive side of the ball and two first rounders will help us do that.

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CREDIT - Sicilian

DegeneratePatsFan

I doubt it. The Pats are swinging for the fences this offseason, and I'm sure that they believe, based on past successes, that they can get two players in the lower end of the first round that can contribute in a hurry. They've suprised people in the past (Mankins comes to mind), but if I had to bet, I'm guessing they hold onto the picks they have and get a DB and a LB (Yes, a LB. I think they'll do it and grab a guy they can develop, especially after getting Thomas).

mgteich

Those two defensive players are: Samuel and Thomas. In addition, we will sign at least one more free agent linebacker. We can sign two or three (by trading down) blue chippers or one red chipper (one potential probowler). bb will choose the one player if it is possible to do so.

tombonneau

I don't know about that. According to the draft value chart, both #1s would be enough to get into top 8-10 range. This I agree would be a bad (but not the worst ever) idea.

I do however, think it might not be a bad idea to move up into mid- to late-teens for a guy BB targets with a trade that would move both #1s in exchange for the high teen pick plus a 2nd round pick.

EDIT:

According to value chart, Pats picks are roughly 1400 pts. So the deal that would make most sense would be sending both picks for #15 & #47 (1480); #16 & #48 (1420).

I think the salary cap cost of the 15 or 16 would prob. be similar to the two #1s.

italian pat patriot

i would keep picks 24 and 28

we need both of them and i hope both will be on defense

Oswlek

I will post here what I posted the last time moving up was discussed.

The quality of the teams making the picks. This is a doozy and needs to be recognized. In the BB/SP they have made the following post-20 first round draft selections with the corresponding top 10 from each draft. I marked any player that was even debatable (read: I don't agree that all of the red are better, just that it is debatable) with red font.

2006
Laurence Maroney (21)

1 Houston Mario Williams DE North Carolina State
2 New Orleans Reggie Bush RB Southern California
3 Tennessee Vince Young QB Texas
4 N.Y. Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia
5 Green Bay A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State
6 San Francisco Vernon Davis TE Maryland
7 Oakland Michael Huff SS Texas
8 Buffalo Donte Whitner SS Ohio State
9 Detroit Ernie Sims OLB Florida State
10 Arizona Matt Leinart QB Southern California

2005
Logan Mankins (32)

1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Adam Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Antrel Rolle CB Miami
9 Washington Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
10 Detroit Mike Williams WR Southern California

2004
Vince Wilfork (21)
Ben Watson (32)

1 San Diego Eli Manning QB Mississippi
2 Oakland Robert Gallery T Iowa
3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh
4 N.Y. Giants Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
5 Washington Sean Taylor FS Miami
6 Cleveland Kellen Winslow TE Miami - Watson only
7 Detroit Roy Williams WR Texas
8 Atlanta DeAngelo Hall CB Virginia Tech
9 Jacksonville Reggie Williams WR Washington
10 Houston Dunta Robinson CB South Carolina

2002
Dan Graham (21)

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas
6 Kansas City Ryan Sims DT North Carolina
7 Minnesota Bryant McKinnie T Miami
8 Dallas Roy Williams SS Oklahoma
9 Jacksonville John Henderson DT Tennessee
10 Cincinnati Levi Jones T Arizona State

NE has made 5 selections. All but one are bonafide starters at their position, and NE apparently has faith that the 5th will rpove to be a starter next year. In that same drafts, there were 17 players drafted in the top ten that a case could be made that they have proven to be better guys than who NE ended up with. Said another way, the 5 players taken after the top 20 had already passed are clearly better than 23 of 40 guys who were taken in the top 10.

With that track record, why would anyone be in favor of moving up?


Edited to say that Pacman has proven to be a very good player, but I considered him out of the running for red considering that it is likely that he is unemployed soon.

Oswlek

Some replies and answers from before:

I will give you Winslow as being better than Watson, but he is not better than Wilfork. I don't know enough about Robinson to make the best judgement, but Hall is an average CB at best. He has tremendous measuables, but I would take Hobbs over him every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Even if I add all three of these, the point still stands. In all likelihood, NE's picks at 24 and 28 will both better than 1/2 of the big names picked in the top 10.

The issue is more complicated than that. When you add money into the mix things change dramatically. The investment in a #8 would probably be twice that of 24 and 28 combined. So, the player would have to be much, much better than anyone taken to be worth the money. For instance, I am more than willing to say that Bush is better than Maroney. But would you rather have Bush at 5+mm cap per year or Maroney at 2mm?

IMHO, once we exclude QBs (no need) only a handful of the guys a clearly worht big money:

Larry FItzgerald, Julius Peppers, John Henderson, Levi Jones and Roy Williams (Det.)

So, only 5 guys were really worth the investment of a top 10 pick (excluding QBs) while every single player taken by NE exceeded their contract value and would have even if they were top picks themselves.

I am not against moving up a handful of spots, but I vehemently disagree with going any higher than the high teen area.