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I bet most 'experts' picked Pittsburgh and Indy the last three AFCCG appearances by the Pats, too. I laugh when people get worked up because someone like Dan Marino picks Indy. They are picking with their hearts. Do you honestly think Marino looks at the film, breaks down the positions, and makes a fact based pick?
It really doesn't matter what facts they have on hand. Manning is a perfect example. These "experts", who should really just be called celebrities, just overlook or minimize all of Manning's history of gas-piping in the big games. Mathis and Freeney could both blow out their ACLs tomorrow, Harrison and Wayne could be slain while in a San Francisco bathouse the day after, and the Media would say something like "Peyton will win because of the emotions of the moment."
Although, to be fair, the way they are canonizing Sanders, if he went down with a hangnail, some of the media clowns just might jump ship.
P.S. One of the reasons that New Orleans is going to win is because they are "together" as a team, according to NFL Live, I believe.
Although I have to take issue with a few of his statements.
Quote:
The Patriots would love to run the ball, force the Colts safeties to creep up, and create some room for their ball-control passing game. But the Colts have closed down the turnstile in the middle of their defense, and the one-two punch of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney appeared to run out of steam last week.
Quote:
They've compensated for their one weakness, run defense, at a time when the Patriots have reason to doubt their greatest strength, Brady's precision.
1) The Colts have minimized their greatest weakness by moving Sanders into the box from the first snap of the game. Unless Indy plays completely different than they have the past two weeks (which I doubt because they have been successful and they "do what they do") NE won't need any running success to move the safeties up into the box.
2) I will respond to the part about Maroney and Dillon looking out of steam with a replay that I made in another thread.
Quote:
NE's "thoroughly unimpressive" rushing offense the three games prior to the Chargers game:
Jets - 145 yards in 34 carries - 4.3 ypc
TN - 154 yards on 26 carries - 5.9 ypc
Jax - 86 yards in 20 carries - 4.3 ypc
* totals only include RB carries.
If that is thoroughl6 unimpressive I guess only LDT actually cracks the "decent" plateau. Don't get too swayed by the fact that NE opted not to run against SD.
Dillon and Maroney did not have the greatest of games, but it was a combination of factors. Not one of those factors has anything to do with them being out of steam. Actually, if a blitzing CB hadn't made a terrific tackle on Maroney, he would have gotten at least 15 yards on the play that he lost 4, and that came on the heals of a 5 yard run.
3) Going into the games this past week, the defense that was the most similar to Indy's by footballoutsiders own metrics, was the Jets. In fact, they are so similar that it is almost erie.
If we advance to the SB we will have new experience being favorites to win the trophy. 7-point favorites already
Actually, I'm pretty sure the Patriots were favored in the last two Super Bowls (over the Panthers and the Eagles). Not huge lines, but pretty solid favorites.
It's the AFC playoffs where they're continually underestimated ... frankly, I'm cool with the Vegas line of "even game with the 3 points given to the home team." I think the Pats are a bit better, but the speed of the Colts offense is one thing I worry about.
If someone says, "the Colts find holes in secondaries better than any team, and the lack of team speed on the Patriots defense will give them those holes, so I'm going with the Colts," I respect that. But if someone says, "It's Peyton Manning's year, and you just know that Adam Vinatieri will decide the game for the Colts, so I'm going with the Colts," he immediately goes in the "idiot" folder in my mind ... I just hate the "this is a good story, so I'm going to predict it will happen" school of punditry.
IDK if anyone has brought this up, but Mark Schlereth and Sean Salisbury did a breakdown of a couple different factors:
Both picked Brady for QB
Both picked Indy's offense
Schlereth picked NE's D (although with trepidation), Salisbury picked INDY's
Both picked BB
Both picked the Colts' ST
If they picked Indy's offense because of the season OVERALL, and not picked the Patriots O because it has looked better in the postseason, then why did Salisbury pick Indy's D because of their performance this postseason, I mean NE's D was far and away much better over the course of the season. Bunch a douchebags.
STs, while I know FGs are pretty important, also include kick coverages, return units, kickoffs. I am confident in saying that the Pats are better than the Colts in these other phases (probably slightly off in punting, but Sauerbrun has really picked it up the last couple of weeks). Gostkowski has been perfect this postseason, looking really good, and has already put up a GW kick. One advantage gives the Colts the edge? If the Pats outperform the Colts in every other aspect of STs, how advantageous is that one FG if the score is 17-3?
Although I have to take issue with a few of his statements.
1) The Colts have minimized their greatest weakness by moving Sanders into the box from the first snap of the game. Unless Indy plays completely different than they have the past two weeks (which I doubt because they have been successful and they "do what they do") NE won't need any running success to move the safeties up into the box.
2) I will respond to the part about Maroney and Dillon looking out of steam with a replay that I made in another thread.
Dillon and Maroney did not have the greatest of games, but it was a combination of factors. Not one of those factors has anything to do with them being out of steam. Actually, if a blitzing CB hadn't made a terrific tackle on Maroney, he would have gotten at least 15 yards on the play that he lost 4, and that came on the heals of a 5 yard run.
3) Going into the games this past week, the defense that was the most similar to Indy's by footballoutsiders own metrics, was the Jets. In fact, they are so similar that it is almost erie.
Can someone remind me, did Brady play well against the Jets?
all these guys ignore that each week is different ..just put facts which support their theories instead of looking at info first and then coming up with an answer
For every regular season game over the 2005 and 2006 Seasons, I tracked the picks of the ESPN "experts" against my own picks (on the W/L, not against the spread) as much out of curiosity as anything else.
The bottom line is that these guys don't do any better than an average fan (which is what I consider myself), so I'd give their predictions about the same credibility as I'd give those of the guy on the barstool next to any one of us at our favorite pub on Thursday night.
Name Right Wrong
Salisbury 331 181
Patsfansince74 329 183
Golic 327 185
Jaworski 324 188
Hoge 323 189
Schlereth 322 190
Allen 313 199
Mortensen 311 201
__________________
It is what it is. It wasn't what it wasn't.
Last edited by PatsFanSince74; 01-18-2007 at 11:58 AM..
It never ceases to amaze me. Each year, EVERYONE picks against the Patriots and every year, I say to myself, "how many more times do the Pats have to win before they realize how stupid they are?"
What does scare me is that Eric Allen picked the Pats in this game and I have NEVER seen him pick the Pats.
At any rate, do any of these morons look at how much better the Pats offense is than anything the Colts have faced thus far? Do these morons look at how the Pats just went into the best team in the NFL's house and WON, despite Brady having an awful day?
Do any of these morons realize that Gostkowski (PRONOUNCED GOSTOWSKI, you jackasses) hasn't missed an FG in the playoffs yet?
By the way, nickname for Gostkowski should be "SILENT K"...the guy NOBODY is talking about.
Re: List all 'experts' picks here
This was on his FoxSports show last night.
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