avgfootballfan

First post on this forum. If any of you were following the forums.chargers.com lately you'd see I attempted to instill some logic into the debate of whether the Pats won or the Chargers "Lost".

What is "lost" in all of this is the Chargers horrific record against playoff caliber teams in 2006. They ended up 2-3, scoring 101 points while giving up 96 averaging 20.2 PPG while giving up 19.2 PPG. On Sunday they scored 21 points, right in their seasonal average versus quality teams.

The Patriots are now 4-2 against playoff teams scoring 136 points while giving up 111 for averages of 22.6 and 18.5. Again, the 24-21 score on Sunday was very much on target as both teams performed to their offensive number within 1.4 points +/-. Also consider, the Patriots played 2 of the 3 remaning teams in the playoffs while every team San Diego played is now golfing. Anyone that contends the Chargers were a superior team ignores the fact that they played the worst offense in NFL history twice in Oakland, Cleveland and Arizona. They took care of business and beat the sisters of the poor, but when it came to quality opponents they folded.

On the flip side, I think folks in New England need to be aware of Indy's dominance against quality opponents this year with a 6-1 record. They've scored 181 points and given up 125 for an average of 25.9 and 17.85 PPG. Really for the first time in this rivalry the Colts actually have the statistics solidly on their side. There are some caveats, the playoff competition they've faced were mostly eliminated in the first round but they have played solidly this year.


I look for a game that will come down to turnovers. Both teams are due for a solid offensive game. If the Colts last 5 weeks are now the norm, the Patriots should be able to beat them by a similar score to last weekends game, 24-21, 27-24 etc, if the Colts offense re-emerges it could be a long day with scores something like 31-21 for the Colts. One thing is clear, statistically and on record, the Colts are vastly superior to the Chargers and hopefully the fans realize that going in. Unlike past years, they now have a very good kicker.

I was banned for 30 days on the Chargers forum for posting these facts. Apparently they want to continue the delusion of being regular season champs.

BelichickFan

Without looking it up, I have a hard time believing that the stat happy Colts haven't looked good on paper against us in prior years.

But, yeah, this isn't some cakewalk. I think the Chargers are more talented but the Colts should play much closer to their maximum talent level than the Chargers did. Bottom line to me, if the Colts execute to perfection like they did for much of the Patriot-Colt regular season game then we're in trouble. But they made a LOT of plays in that game that could be difficult to duplicate. Playing at home increases the chance of great execution, thankfully we have a very good road record and about the same net points on the road as Indy has at home.

GameDay

Interesting view. But when you talk about last 5 games, what is your take of the Colts defense? If their last two playoff games are taken at face value (assuming KC and Balt played at their expected level), how strong do they look to you?

For our calculation,* these games skew the projection heavily in Colts' favor...
If we argued that it wasn't due to them, but partly because of KC and Balt underforming, then I feel a lot better about Pats' chance.
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* A statistical take of the "Game" and sneak preview of the Indy game

Holy Diver

What a bunch of crybabies....

I'm starting to put the chargers up there with Raider fans in the keep whining about a loss department.

avgfootballfan

Holy Diver, I can only guess they really are that insecure about their team but reading some of what was written on that forum pre-game (mind you this is an official San Diegos Charger forum that the Chargers own and operate) it's no wonder they reacted the way they did. It's also no wonder LT had a meltdown on the field, they were already set to play in the Super Bowl as were the fans. I never once said a bad word. The official reason for banning is "Tired of gloating Patriots Fans". Again, officially sponsored by the San Diego Chargers.


BF, this is the first time their defense has been reasonably solid and one of the first times the Patriots hadn't already beaten them in the season. This year they have the numbers and also beat the Patriots at home.

GameDay, I think Baltimores offense is horrendous. Their defense though is better than the Patriots without Harrison and probably better most days. I believe that had a lot to do with the Indy offense. KC was horrible, they backed into the playoffs and backed out quickly. I put very little in that game. Really since they beat the Patriots the Colts have lacked sharpness. If we take the totality of the season and their numbers they should beat the Patriots. If we look at just the 2nd half, the Patriots should have the clear advantage.

I'd be shocked if both offenses come out looking like they did this weekend. The Colts should score touchdowns and the Patriots won't be as bad on O but at least on paper the Colts should have the advantage. I won't bet against the Patriots though, but I also won't be surprised if they lose. To be honest I also would not be terribly unhappy about it as these two organizations are the class of the NFL year in, year out.

BelichickFan

You are right about them being at home.

Looking at previous years, though, against all opponents, I don't have time to do splits against winning teams :

2003 PF 447 PA 336 = +67
2004 PF 522 PA 351 = +171

skip 2005, we didn't play in the playoffs

2006 PF 447 PA 336 = +111

Home-Road splits this year (regular season) :

Indy at home, PF 237, PA 148 = +89
Pats on road, PF 220, PA 108 = +112

ribanez

Everybody but one team will lose in the playoffs against "playoff caliber" teams.

Did you make the point on THEIR board that the Chargers were 2-2 during the regular season against teams that made the playoffs as were the Patriots?

40yrpatsfan

I was banned too, I don't even know what for. One of the mods there was agreeing with some points I made in a thread, and the next morning I was banned.

I think a crazy mod just went nuts there Sunday or Monday and banned any Pats poster he could find.

avgfootballfan

Hopefully the stooge moderator on forums.chargers.com gets the boot. I sent a letter this afternoon to the Chargers front office along with a copy of the ticket stubs from this weekend, and the last 3 years receipts from our six season tickets (have now had them 9 years). I'm interested in seeing their response and explanation for why a season ticket holder was banned from posting on a Charger website.

I never said a bad word. I just think many Charger fans are delusional and really believe they had the "better" team despite the facts at hand. They had a losing record against playoff teams.

In the interest of disclosure I have season tickets to both stadiums through a business that I own. As most of you know they make a great palm greaser.

If the stooge from forums.chargers.com reads this at least have the courtesy to send an email to a season ticket holder. I can only hope the front office dethrowns the idiot soon.

sanvara

You were trolling and you wonder why you got banned from the Chargers forum?