chris_in_sunnyvale

There was a TON of contact between MeShawn and Lito Sheppard on that final play. I know there's a five-yard buffer where contact is legal, but the Panthers were on the 5 yard line and the contact was past the goal line. Both guys appeared to be making a play on the ball, yet the ball was clearly thrown farther outside than either player expected and Lito had the dexterity to adjust at the final moment. It's easy to criticize the Panthers after the fact, but when have you ever seen so much contact with the ball in the air and no flag thrown (on either guy)? That was an oddity of a non-call.

Regards,
Chris

PatsFaninAZ

That's really the main difference I think between our positions. You and I would be very different coaches. I don't agree with either of these statements.

I think the key to game-coaching is doing taking exactly situation that's presented to you as it's presented to you, using every piece of information you have at that moment, and making the choice that gives you the highest chance of winning. Not winning the play, or the situation, or the battle within the battle, but the game.

Because the reality is that every play is not going to be successful. We can disagree about whether up by 4 with a minute left kicking the ball off is a better chance of winning than first and goal from the 7 with 22 seconds left. Seems like an easy call to me, but reasonable minds can differ.

My more fundmental point, and I guess what I think makes a great coach is one who understands that with first and ten from your opponent's 20, a 9 and a half yard run is better than a 10 yard run. (Just to take a silly example.) Or, to put it in Belichickian terms, one who realizes at 4th and forever from the two yard line down by 3 that a safety is the better play than a punt. That coach ain't, in my opinion, John Fox, which is really my only point.

Good debate though. I respect your view.

PatsSox363804

I'd rather them never throw that flag than throw it every time. Shappard didn't impede MeShawn to the point where he couldn't catch it, it was a poorly thrown ball, and Lito took the inside route and has just as much right to it not to mention the fact that MeShawn was contacting Sheppard just as much as the other way around. Further, when I watched the replay it wasn't really that much contact, mostly just hands reaching out but no obvious push or hold and it was equal on both parties.

Michigan Dave

Fair enough. I come from the University of Michigan coaching tree, so control is what has been preached to me. I can definitely understand your point, I just tend to play the percentages within scenarios that I control. I think 9 times out of 10, Carolina comes away with at worst a tie in the game last night.



I agree with those statements as well. I'm a HUGE fan of the 2nd and 1 play, anywhere on the field. It's a freebie. That's why I almost always root for the opponent to get the first down when they measure in that situation. I hate giving up free plays. The safety call is smart, too.

While we're debating coaching philosophies, I'd be interested to hear your point of view on the Holmgren decision in SB XXXII when he chose to allow Denver to score to take the lead to preserve time on the clock for Favre. Personally, I think that you never relinquish the lead in that situation. I have a friend who is firmly in the "let them score" camp, and actively advocates letting a team score late so that you can counter and win. Drives me mad.

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PatsSox363804

Yep. Whenever it's 2nd and 1 I want to see a play action deep down the field.

Michigan Dave

I don't even think you necessarily need to go deep there. It's a great opportunity to pick up free yards over the middle of the field, because typically teams help toward the sidelines anticipating a go route. 10-15 yard ins, slants, deep drags, those are perfect in those situations, especially to TEs releasing.

If field position dictates, I LOVE the 3rd and 1 PA downfield, especially with an offense as efficient as ours is in short yardage and 4th down conversions.

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PatsFaninAZ

I thought that one was a tough one. It's just a bad situation either way. Wasn't the game tied there? I think that's a harder call than if you're winning. I think Holmgren let them score from out about the 20 yard line, which was maybe a bit too generous. Still, I think if the game is tied with 2 minutes left, and I don't have time outs, and they are inside the 10 yard line, I probably let them score, rather than run the game down to nothing and kick a game winning chip shot. Going back to my philosophy, I think the chance that they will kick the field goal is greater than the chance that I will score a touchdown to tie and then win in overtime. Not much, but still higher.

Here's a related scenario. You're on defense, up by 1, with less than 2 minutes. Your opponent is out of time outs. You intercept the ball with a clear path to the end zone. The correct play there is to sit down on the field or run out of bounds. If you're the team that has been intercepted, the correct play is to get the heck out of the guy's way and let him score if he wants to. Better to be down by 8 with the ball back than to have the other team just kneel on the ball to run out the clock.

PatsFaninAZ

Depends on where on the field. If it's a second and one at my opponent's 11 yard line, I really want at least a 3 or 4 yard play. It's way better than having first and goal at the 10 yard line.

The stats for touchdown converstions when you start with first and goal from the 9 or 10 yard line are amazingly low. It's way under 50 percent, maybe even under 30 percent or so. Wheras scoring a TD when you start a 1st and goal inside the 7 yard line goes way up. It's just really hard to get 10 yards on 3 plays with only a 20 yard field (the 10 yards and the EZ) to work with.

For as much as announcers like to talk about red zone conversions, it's really all about where you start your 1st and goal from. In fact, in NCAA football, apparently you're more likely to score a TD if you start overtime from the 25 than if you start it from the 20, which is somewhat amazing if you think about it, but the opportunity to get 2 first downs (instead of just one) is apparently a big advantage. Whenever a team gets inside the other team's 50, I always pay attention to that. There's really not much you can do about it to control it, but if you're a receiver and you've picked up the first down, and your choice is to get tackled at your opponent's 10 yard line or his 15, the 15 is actually the better spot, as weird as that sounds. Not that any receiver can actually make that decision on the spot (and not that we'd want them to try).

Michigan Dave

That is hilarious, because a similar situation happened to us at Michigan in 1999. We blew a big lead against Illinois, at home, and had just turned the ball over on downs with almost enough time for Illinois to run out the clock. A first down seals the game, and we would've needed a quick stop just to hope to get the ball back for a Hail Mary. Lo and behold, we pinch at the line, and Illinois' RB Rocky Harvey breaks through, and makes a move, running 50+ yards for the score. The Illinois bench erupted, the Illinois fans erupted, and so did we, because we realized they had given us hope. Brady drove us down, but a TD pass went through Dave Terrell's pass in the end zone, and we lost.

It was still an amazing realization that their TD was a good thing for us.

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Krugman

Outside of the clock management issues,which have been well stated,didnt the
Panthers throw the same type of pass on an earlier scoring drive?I was listening on the radio,didnt see that ,Esiason or his winger mentioned that.If so,thats a huge faux pas,the Eagles defence would e looking for that.

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