Patsfanin Philly

With all the talk of how the defense has carried this Pats team, in the past when that has happened, the Pats won the Super Bowl. I saw a link which I can?t find (so the research is not mine totally- standard disclaimer) that correlated the Patriots success with the amount of times they gave up more than 17 points in a game. It?s an interesting stat.

Year Number of games giving up more than 17 points
2001 4 *
2002 10
2003 6 *
2004 7 *
2005 10
2006 1 (to date- prorates to 1.6)

*hoisted Lombardi trophy


In the years when they gave up 17 or less points 64.6% of the time (2001,2003,2004 17/48 games) they had success in the playoffs.
When they gave up 17 or more points 62.5% of the time ( 2002,2005-
20/32 games) they either didn?t make the playoffs or had minimal success.
When looking at this stat, it gives one hope for this year as they gave up more than 17 points only one time (Denver).
It may be stating the obvious to say that defenses win championships but when you can quantify one factor and find one stat that pulls it together, it makes it interesting.
Put another way, they have held the other team?s offense in check as many time this year as they did in the championship year of 2004 and need to do it one more time in the next six weeks to match the championship team of 2003.
What is also interesting is the number of games giving up 17 points is very similar to the 2001 team which gave up over the last nine weeks of the season
( 10,11,17,17,16,16,9,13,6) in successive games- 12.8 pt average) and the 2006 team which has given up (17,17,17,13,10,6,7,27,17,0- 13.1 average).
As they say in the stock ads, past performance is no guarantee of future success BUT when the defense has had success, playoff success has usually followed and with 1/10 games giving up over 17 points, I?m optimistic that if and when the offense really gets in gear like at Lambeau this past week, it could make for a playoff run???

Just my $0.02

Brownfan80

Great post, but it was Indy they gave up more than 17 to. Denver scored 17 exactly.

9/10 W Bills 19-17
9/17 W Jets 24-17
9/24 L Broncos 17-7
10/1 W Bengals 38-13
10/8 W Dolphins 20-10
10/15 Bye
10/22 W Bills 28-6
10/30 W Vikings 31-7
11/5 L Colts 27-20
11/12 L Jets 17-14
11/19 W Packers 35-0

On the flip side of the coin, we have scored LESS than 20 points only 3 times in 10 games. We scored 19 in a win against the Bills, 7 against the Broncos in a loss, and 14 against the Jets in a loss.

We have scored 20 or more points and lost only once, against the Colts. We scored 20 points in that loss.