arrellbee

The posts are pretty correct in most respects. Except that the odds makers have NO interest in who is actually most likely to win or the 'real' odds of a team winning the SB. Their expertise IS strictly an ability to assess what the odds have to be set at in order to balance their books. Therefore it is an expertise in assessing how the BETTING fans view the teams and what odds it takes to get an equal amount of payoff money bet on all teams, as has been said. Actual knowledge or expertise in assessing the strength of teams is useful ONLY in the sense that it may help them figure what the fans are likely to think and bet accordingly. Note that big market teams (or national favorites) with large numbers of betting fans who are loyal no matter what the reality is (Dolphins fans come to mind at the moment) will get unrealistically lower payoff odds while low market teams or teams who have few fans who believe in them will get unrealistically higher payoff odds.

The fascinating phenomenom this year, again, are the Colts who are the darlings of the national betting public. Obviously Indiana is NOT a big market so it is very much a national (delusional) following.

One thing that is rather interesting. The Patriots are getting their own national following of betting believers and are consistently the second most favorite team, even above such teams as Pittsburgh (the new team to 'get no respect'), Seattle, and Denver.

Another interesting note is that different betting books tend to have their own core group of bettors which shows up in the varying odds posted by the various books. If you are interested in seeing what the odds for the superbowl are for a number of different books, try:

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/m...13x/sid/828117

JR4

good one arrellbee,

colts are ... "a national (delusional) following"

I like that.

Keegs

I'm at work and any site gambling related is blocked but im guessing their are 7-1 or 6-1. It won't get much higher than that for a while as long as peyton is playing the way he plays. If the spread ever got to 10-1 or higher, everybody and their brother would bet on the Colts, and if they won the bookies would lose their shirts. They have to keep it this low. It has nothing to do with who they think is going to win. They could care less.

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Coast2CoastPatsFan

My comments were not in reference to the Patriots deserving to be SB favorites (or anything to do with the Patriots at all), but were referring to the comments that JR4 made regarding the Colts being the odds-on favorites and that many people believe (again) that they will win it all eventually and that this may be their year.

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"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing"--Vince Lombardi
"It is what it is"--Bill Belichick

PatsFanInVa

Sorry, just got ornery there. I really need it to be football season.

PFnV

ilduce06410

oddsmakers are only publishing ratings when they think they can money for it. they want to attract bets, and rite now for an event that's 7 months away, they got it like this. soon you'll see the patriots favored 'narrowly. ' any bets they're getting now are just sucker money anyway.