dryheat44

In the name of boredom, I've broken down every team's schedule, and figured out their records for the upcoming seasons. Figuring in things like HFA, cross-country travel, weather, system vs. system matchups, rookies playing better, perennially injured players getting injured, teams laying down with nothing left to play for, etc is tough work, but in a couple of hours, I've got it down. And I present to you the final regular season standings. I like the Pats' chances. Probably more optimistic this year than the last five. With the most favorable schedule, the playoffs could well go through Foxboro, where it's hard to see them losing:

AFC East
New England 13-3 (5-1)
Miami 9-7 (4-2)
Buffalo 5-11 (2-4)
New York 4-12 (1-5)

AFC North
Cincinnati 11-5 (5-1)
Pittsburgh 10-6 (3-3)
Baltimore 9-7 (2-4)
Cleveland 6-10 (2-4)

AFC South
Indianapolis 11-5 (5-1)
Jacksonville 10-6 (3-3)
Houston 5-11 (2-4)
Tennessee 4-12 (2-4)

AFC West
Denver 11-5 (5-1)
San Diego 11-5 (3-3)
Kansas City 10-6 (3-3)
Oakland 6-10 (1-5)


NFC East
Philadelphia 11-5 (3-3)
Dallas 10-6 (3-3)
Washington 10-6 (3-3)
New York 8-8 (3-3)

NFC North
Chicago 11-5 (5-1)
Detroit 7-9 (5-1)
Green Bay 5-11 (1-5)
Minnesota 4-12 (1-5)

NFC South
Carolina 13-3 (4-2)
Tampa Bay 7-9 (4-2)
Atlanta 5-11 (2-4)
New Orleans 4-12 (2-4)

NFC West
Arizona 10-6 (4-2)
Seattle 9-7 (5-1)
St. Louis 5-11 (2-4)
San Francisco 3-13 (1-5)

That makes the Wild Cards San Diego and Jacksonville in the AFC and Dallas and Washington in the NFC.

Breakout players: Philip Rivers and Cedric Benson.

You'll note the AFC is the stronger conference still, and once again there aren't too many teams in the 7-9 to 9-7 range, as the rift between good teams and bad teams remains fairly pronounced.

You're Welcome.

Attached Files

MATRIX.txt.txt (14.4 KB, 89 views)

__________________
When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee

DaBruinz

And here I thought I had too much time on my hands.....

5 Rings for Brady!!

I think Miami goes 10-6 or 11-5, but the important thing is we expose them in the second match-up of the year, and Culpepper's resurgency is derailed before the playoffs. He still beats Brady in ProBowl ballots, however....

I have trouble predicting a big year for the Steelers, I think they swap records with the Ravens.

San Diego will stink in that tough division, 8-8 at best.
Kansas City also looks like a 8-8 team, or worse. Herman Edwards takes over a crap defense and aging offense? Hello? HELLO?

The Redskins were one of the most overrated teams last year, and will regress. The Giants are at least tied with Cowboys for #2 in division, if the Cowboys don't collapse under a huge TO versus QB episode 3.

NOBODY in NFC North cracks 9-7.

No respect for the SeaHens? They'll look good again next year, methinks.

pats1

What? Huh? How in the world can the Dolphins NOT do better than last season? They got Culpepper! That means at least one more win!!! Meanwhile, the Pats lost Duane Starks and Tyrone Poole! They have NO defense left!

TeamPats

Also, the AFC East schedule is infinately easier this year then last, so I agree with the Pats having a much better record...Miami's record should also reflect that.

__________________
In front of his team after a 28-10 loss to the Packers in 2002, Belichick said: "We have a lot of smart guys in this room, but on the football field we play like a bunch of f------- morons. If you are one of the players flinching at the harshness of these words, you might as well begin packing. There is no way you are going to last as a New England Patriot."

5 Rings for Brady!!

And the 'Big Three' was shattered, like a supernova, and sent careening into an alternate universe.

dryheat44

And as an added treat, I've attached my worksheet to the original post.

__________________
When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee

desi-patsfan

Good stuff, couple of changes i would make is seattle winning their division and the cowboys winning their divsion with the giants taking 2nd place.

AllabouttheVinces

Nice job, dryheat. Not sure about your San Diego prediction, though. 11 wins with a first-time QB? I think San Diego is in for a fall this year. Too tough a division, and Rivers needs some time to grow. Also, you must think that Carson Palmer will be ready to start the season. That was a devastating injury. He's a great kid and a tremendous QB, so I hope you're right about him. I'm not so optimistic, and without Kitna to back him up, I think Cinci comes back to the pack a bit.

On the way up: Miami has to improve, with the cake schedule. I like your Arizona pick, it's finally their time. I like Detroit to break .500, with Harrington gone, a new coach, and a good free agent group.

PatsFanInVa

Please save this and re-post just after Week 17. It will be good for a laugh. No offense - anybody's predictions from the summer would be. But ARIZONA??? Okay I see the talent at the skill positions. But still... ARIZONA?

PFnV

PS, if Arizona does do okay, feel free to post this as well.