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View Poll Results: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?
First round 43 76.79%
Second round 9 16.07%
Third/fourth round 2 3.57%
Fifth through seventh rounds 0 0%
He'd still have been a UDFA 2 3.57%
Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-20-2010, 08:45 PM   #1
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Default In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

Yeah, it's the slow part of the season. . . .

So here's my question: if teams knew then what they know now—that Welker would have one of the most prolific careers in NFL history (#2 in NFL history in all-purpose yards in his first three seasons, the first NFL player with three 110-catch seasons since), where would he be drafted?

As a bonus question—would the Patriots have considered drafting him, even with Brown still on the team?
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Old 06-20-2010, 09:01 PM   #2
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

I don't see him getting taken earlier than the early 2nd round, possibly mid 2nd round given how the trend went in that draft with receivers selected.

Being a small sized receiver from a 2nd tier Big 12 team cost him in the draft...Then again looking at where he could have wound up it may have been the best thing that happened...Jacksonville, Tampa, and San Fransico wound up with outright to borderline busts with their selections or if they could have seen the future he could have gone to Detroit
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Old 06-20-2010, 09:03 PM   #3
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

1 - 3 Larry Fitzgerald

1 - 7 Roy Williams

1 - 9 Reggie Williams

1 - 13 Lee Evans

1 - 15 Michael Clayton

1 - 29 Michael Jenkins

1 - 31 Rashaun Woods

---------------------------------------------

2 - 50 Devery Henderson

2 - 54 Darius Watts

2 - 62 Keary Colbert

---------------------------------------------

3 - 77 Derrick Hamilton

3 - 78 Bernard Berrian

3 - 82 Devard Darling
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Old 06-20-2010, 09:15 PM   #4
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

He'd obviously be the second WR taken in the first round, right after Larry Fitzgerald.
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Old 06-20-2010, 09:30 PM   #5
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

in a draft were Reggie Williams, went #9 im sure he would be a top 10 pick if not a top 5
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Old 06-20-2010, 09:30 PM   #6
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

Quote:
Originally Posted by efin98 View Post
I don't see him getting taken earlier than the early 2nd round, possibly mid 2nd round given how the trend went in that draft with receivers selected.

Being a small sized receiver from a 2nd tier Big 12 team cost him in the draft...Then again looking at where he could have wound up it may have been the best thing that happened...Jacksonville, Tampa, and San Fransico wound up with outright to borderline busts with their selections or if they could have seen the future he could have gone to Detroit
There are maybe 7 or 8 guys from that 2004 draft that I'd take over Welker. If you're redoing the draft, he'd have to be a first rounder, potentially top 10 pick. And based on need, 3 of the top 10 picks were wide receivers, with 5 in the top 16 picks taken, so he'd definitely be a 1st rounder.

Scout.com did a 2004 draft redo which also omitted Welker from the first round, though I don't know how they could include guys like Bernard Berrian and Julius Jones as first rounders and not Welker.
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Old 06-20-2010, 09:32 PM   #7
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

Probably late 1st. Teams would try to get a big split end, say things like "He's just a slot", so called experts would devalue the position, put a 3rd round 'scrappy' grade on him, and NE would end up taking him at the end of the round to everyone's shock. He would go on to be even more biblical than he already is, and the Pats would have smoked Indy in '06.
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Old 06-20-2010, 10:17 PM   #8
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

Meh, it's an impossible question. If teams had *known* that he would go on to be as good as he is, then eh would have been a first round pick, because you take sure things over uncertainties. But that's pretty pointless, isn't it? It removes everything that's difficult about drafting from the equation. But if they'd actually had to project his skill out with any uncertainty, like they do with everyone else, then they would have done exactly what they did: undervalue everything that he does well and overvalue everything that he doesn't have. I'm not sure how much in-between there really is.
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Old 06-20-2010, 10:28 PM   #9
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

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Originally Posted by BradyFTW! View Post
Meh, it's an impossible question. If teams had *known* that he would go on to be as good as he is, then eh would have been a first round pick, because you take sure things over uncertainties. But that's pretty pointless, isn't it? It removes everything that's difficult about drafting from the equation. But if they'd actually had to project his skill out with any uncertainty, like they do with everyone else, then they would have done exactly what they did: undervalue everything that he does well and overvalue everything that he doesn't have. I'm not sure how much in-between there really is.
It's still an "impossible" question, I guess, but let me phrase it slightly differently: Assuming that every team had knowledge of every draftee, but the same needs, etc., where do you think he'd have gone?
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Old 06-21-2010, 01:29 AM   #10
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Default Re: In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

Welker is a great player ... but let's not forget he now has Brady throwing to him.

Here's a thread from memory lane ... members here were meh about the 2nd rounder.

Pats Eye Welker (Reiss)
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