Why it's not a rebuilding year - New England Patriots Forums

shakadave · 03-22-2006, 08:24 AM

On several threads I've heard people wondering if this is a rebuilding year. Answer: No. Here's why....

We've just lost about 4 starters to free agency: AV, Givens (when healthy), McGinest, and let's say Neal-Ashworth (assumes we keep one, lose one). I think the rest of our starters are back. A team has about 25 starters (I count K, P, and long snapper, and make the dubious assumption that the rest of special teams are replaceable. Salaries prove they're at least less crucial.) So we just lost 16% of our starters.

If the average NFL career was 6 years, you would need to replace 16% of your starters each year. But the average career is shorter than that! (To be honest, maybe for starters it's longer. I don't know how to get data on that.)

Conclusion: It's normal to lose 4 starters every year. To really be in rebuilding mode in the sport of football, you'd have to ditch about 8-10 starters in my opinion. Plus, backups play a bigger role on the Pats than with some other teams (and definitely compared to some other sports). We still have Jarvis Green, Kevin Faulk, Samuel-Gay-Hobbs (whichever doesn't start), Pass, Graham-Watson (if only one starts), etc. Furthermore, by January the Pats were tied for the best team in football.

Please stop saying it's a rebuilding year!

***BelichickFan*** · 03-22-2006, 08:28 AM

Ashworth and Neal are irrelevant, they're journeymen.

McGinest is a small loss but with Colvin and Vrabel there for OLB, we're fine although the second ILB is a little bit of an issue. But with Bruschi there it's not a major concern to me.

As I've said 6,000 million times now, you could take Vinatieri's 20/25, replace it with a BRUTAL 15/25 kicker and only lose a point a game. I think we'll get by.

Givens is a different issue, hopefully Caldwell or a draft choice can come through. Alternately, if we beef up the OL and need to help them less with TE then Graham and Watson could make up a lot of the loss if they stay healthy.

***Bobs My Uncle*** · 03-22-2006, 08:31 AM

Rebuilding is when a team tears down the infrastructure replacing many starters and building anew. Like what the Jets, Miami and Bills are now doing.

Retooling is when you allow a select few starters to leave knowing that you can replace them with new people who can easily integrate with the strong nucleus of players you have on the team to be super bowl contenders. Like what the Pats and Steelers are doing.

Welker83 · 03-22-2006, 08:48 AM

It's not a rebuilding year. There hasn't been a fire sale. There are no new coaches or systems to learn. Their are no new additions expected at the marque positions. With that said....

It's also not all that encouraging. A few losses and all that "we want to win" thing is replaced by "we want to get paid". Cause last year they worked hard, put in the time, and were not rewarded with a superbowl. Then they went home and realized how most of the league feels when they are eliminated. Except that the rest of the league had money to make them feel better. It's sad when the only bonuses in a contract are for winning post season games. And only because the league pays that out so it doesn't effect the Cap.

Maybe BB will learn a lesson. Without the promise of Glory people just want money. Some people are all going about how can the pats not do anything in FA...If BB is such a genius why didn't these guys all have contracts last year? Hopefully they have learned that players want to be signed before their contract expires. I expect they are coming to terms with their next class of possible deserters (Branch, Seymour). I know it's all buisiness, But no one wants to be treated like a Wal-Mart Employee... Thought of as nothing more than Cheap...Replacable...Expendable...Unimportant. That "Team" jargon only works on guys who don't have a family to think about.

So I'll ask you guys a question. If you have already reached the peak would you want to go all the way up the mountain again the same way? Or would you go half-way, but with more satisfaction?

How many times can you ride a roller coaster before its not worth the price of admission?

How many times have you drank a Six-pack just trying to get the satisfaction of that first gulp?

Drug addicts call it "Chasing the Dragon". Cause the second time around is never as good as the first time. And when people realize that, motivations change.

Everyone who left has glory...But they didn't have money. Now they do.

***Bobs My Uncle*** · 03-22-2006, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Welker83

It's not a rebuilding year. There hasn't been a fire sale. There are no new coaches or systems to learn. Their are no new additions expected at the marque positions. With that said....

It's also not all that encouraging. A few losses and all that "we want to win" thing is replaced by "we want to get paid". Cause last year they worked hard, put in the time, and were not rewarded with a superbowl. Then they went home and realized how most of the league feels when they are eliminated. Except that the rest of the league had money to make them feel better. It's sad when the only bonuses in a contract are for winning post season games. And only because the league pays that out so it doesn't effect the Cap.

Maybe BB will learn a lesson. Without the promise of Glory people just want money. Some people are all going about how can the pats not do anything in FA...If BB is such a genius why didn't these guys all have contracts last year? Hopefully they have learned that players want to be signed before their contract expires. I expect they are coming to terms with their next class of possible deserters (Branch, Seymour). I know it's all buisiness, But no one wants to be treated like a Wal-Mart Employee... Thought of as nothing more than Cheap...Replacable...Expendable...Unimportant. That "Team" jargon only works on guys who don't have a family to think about.

So I'll ask you guys a question. If you have already reached the peak would you want to go all the way up the mountain again the same way? Or would you go half-way, but with more satisfaction?

How many times can you ride a roller coaster before its not worth the price of admission?

How many times have you drank a Six-pack just trying to get the satisfaction of that first gulp?

Drug addicts call it "Chasing the Dragon". Cause the second time around is never as good as the first time. And when people realize that, motivations change.

Everyone who left has glory...But they didn't have money. Now they do.

Excellent analogies, Welker.

***AndyJohnson*** · 03-22-2006, 08:56 AM

Here is what I dont understand.

We have a lot of openings to fill. Some created by these guys listed leaving, others created to upgrade the lower portion of the roster.

IIRC, we had something like 20 FAs this.

We have 20mill to spend.

Why arent we recognizing that this free agent season involves quantity as well as quality.

Lets assume the 20 number above is correct in terms of open roster spots. (I could be off, but its close)
I suppose about 8 will come from the draft, and probably cost around 8 mill.
We could be running out there and have kept Willie, AV, Givens, and 2 or 3 other FAs and be almost out of cap room.
The BIGGEST problem with this team would not be solved. We would be going into next year with serious age/injury questions and in a position again to be pulling weak players off the end of the bench or off the street and starting them.

I am much happier if the approx 12mill available is spread about the approx 12 players we need rather than 90% of it going to 3 or 4.

We are a better team without Givens, McG and AV IF that means we have extra depth. My guess is that we save about 8-9 mill by not signing those guys. That means we can pay an extra 1 mill for each of 8-9 other FAs we sign.

Given 2 choices:

1) Givens, AV, McG and 9 vets at the min (who usually are older and injury prone) or
2) None of the 3, but 9 players signed at 1 mill more than the vet min

At THIS time with THIS team, there is no way I wouldnt choose #2.

shakadave · 03-22-2006, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Welker83

It's not a rebuilding year. There hasn't been a fire sale. There are no new coaches or systems to learn. Their are no new additions expected at the marque positions. With that said....

It's also not all that encouraging. A few losses and all that "we want to win" thing is replaced by "we want to get paid". Cause last year they worked hard, put in the time, and were not rewarded with a superbowl. Then they went home and realized how most of the league feels when they are eliminated. Except that the rest of the league had money to make them feel better. It's sad when the only bonuses in a contract are for winning post season games. And only because the league pays that out so it doesn't effect the Cap.

Maybe BB will learn a lesson. Without the promise of Glory people just want money. Some people are all going about how can the pats not do anything in FA...If BB is such a genius why didn't these guys all have contracts last year? Hopefully they have learned that players want to be signed before their contract expires. I expect they are coming to terms with their next class of possible deserters (Branch, Seymour). I know it's all buisiness, But no one wants to be treated like a Wal-Mart Employee... Thought of as nothing more than Cheap...Replacable...Expendable...Unimportant. That "Team" jargon only works on guys who don't have a family to think about.

So I'll ask you guys a question. If you have already reached the peak would you want to go all the way up the mountain again the same way? Or would you go half-way, but with more satisfaction?

How many times can you ride a roller coaster before its not worth the price of admission?

How many times have you drank a Six-pack just trying to get the satisfaction of that first gulp?

Drug addicts call it "Chasing the Dragon". Cause the second time around is never as good as the first time. And when people realize that, motivations change.

Everyone who left has glory...But they didn't have money. Now they do.

I see a couple of these details differently (e.g. hometown discounters like Brady and Bruschi still put plenty of food on their families' tables) but this post still makes the interesting-reply Hall of Fame! Thanks for the delectable food for thought! (speaking of tables)

shakadave · 03-22-2006, 09:02 AM

10 characters so I could rate this thread --- superb responses by ALL so far!

PatsChick87 · 03-22-2006, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobs My Uncle

Rebuilding is when a team tears down the infrastructure replacing many starters and building anew. Like what the Jets, Miami and Bills are now doing.

Retooling is when you allow a select few starters to leave knowing that you can replace them with new people who can easily integrate with the strong nucleus of players you have on the team to be super bowl contenders. Like what the Pats and Steelers are doing.

Like the "retool" vs "rebuild" tag, seems much more appropriate. We'll hopefully find those hungry vet's, aka, Rodney and Dillon to contribute this year!

Welker83 · 03-22-2006, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakadave

I see a couple of these details differently (e.g. hometown discounters like Brady and Bruschi still put plenty of food on their families' tables) but this post still makes the interesting-reply Hall of Fame! Thanks for the delectable food for thought! (speaking of tables)

I definatly see your point... Marino Down here has made more money in endorsements and local stuff than the Fins ever paid him. AND i think Mcginest and AV lost a lot of that post-career money when they left. BUT that stuff only matters if you want to stay in the area. It seems like Adam wanted a change of scenery(dome) and he wanted some guaranteed money.

The Problem of making tough buisness decisions (Milloy, Law,Bledsoe...) is that it makes everyone realize that BB isn't scared to cut Anybody at any time. Now that more players know that, they want guaranteed money up front. And the Pats have a reputation for incentives... I think that may be a big reason why it's getting harder to attract FA's to NE...