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Old 01-04-2010, 11:30 PM   #1
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Default Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

Here's a nugget worth noting:

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I know a number of readers disagree with the opponent adjustments that give Brady the season lead in passing value. As I noted in an Extra Points post a couple weeks ago, Brady has played against the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses of any quarterback in the past 17 years. Six of his games came against the top four pass defenses according to DVOA, with four others against the Ravens (7), Saints (9), and Dolphins (11).
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 DVOA Ratings
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Old 01-04-2010, 11:36 PM   #2
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

Pretty impressive when you consider that his starting O-Line has been extremely banged up all season long as well as his injuries on top of that.
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Old 01-04-2010, 11:44 PM   #3
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

It was an AMAZING year for Brady considering he was just getting back into form. Second most passing yards in a season in his career?

As I said in the "Get well soon, Wes!" thread, Welker was the #1 reason Brady is back into the groove. In a way, going forward, it could almost be poetic with the old Brady back, finding the open man. Only because of the now injured Welker.

This isn't at all like Brady's last year, 2007. This year he has to fight for what he gets.
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Old 01-04-2010, 11:56 PM   #4
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

He wasn't fighting for what he got in 2007?
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Old 01-05-2010, 12:20 AM   #5
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

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He wasn't fighting for what he got in 2007?
No. Not nearly as much. For the reason that I gave... he is recovering from an injury and a year away from football.

Looks like he wasn't the only one gone for a year.

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Old 01-05-2010, 12:37 AM   #6
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

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Originally Posted by ctpatsfan77 View Post
Very interesting stat, ct. Nice find.

I have been quite impressed by the overall toughness of Brady, fighting through injuries, etc--but also with the harder defensive schedule. I didn't take this schedule for granted from day 1, and personally felt it would be even tougher without a true, go-to #3 WR.

I'm not sure what will happen now w/o Welker, but overall, felt that Brady did a lot better than a lot of mediots and spolied posters. (And I'm not talking about the realists, but the ones who claimed that the schedule wouldn't be hard, that we'd easily win the SB, that we'd go 15-1, that we should 'bench' Brady,etc)
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Old 01-05-2010, 02:30 AM   #7
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

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Very interesting stat, ct. Nice find.

I have been quite impressed by the overall toughness of Brady, fighting through injuries, etc--but also with the harder defensive schedule. I didn't take this schedule for granted from day 1, and personally felt it would be even tougher without a true, go-to #3 WR.

I'm not sure what will happen now w/o Welker, but overall, felt that Brady did a lot better than a lot of mediots and spolied posters. (And I'm not talking about the realists, but the ones who claimed that the schedule wouldn't be hard, that we'd easily win the SB, that we'd go 15-1, that we should 'bench' Brady,etc)
This. I fully agree with this comment.
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Old 01-05-2010, 09:13 AM   #8
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Good stuff.

This is what I alluded to last week:

Brady & Manning against common opponents

Before my thread was hijacked by a Colts fan.
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Old 01-05-2010, 10:18 AM   #9
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It was an AMAZING year for Brady considering he was just getting back into form. Second most passing yards in a season in his career?

As I said in the "Get well soon, Wes!" thread, Welker was the #1 reason Brady is back into the groove. In a way, going forward, it could almost be poetic with the old Brady back, finding the open man. Only because of the now injured Welker.

This isn't at all like Brady's last year, 2007. This year he has to fight for what he gets.
well, i guess it depends on your definition of "fight," but i wouldn't want to be the one to tell Tommy that he didn't "fight" for what he got in 2007, especially after the Philadelphia game when teams started bringing the blitz and planting his butt regularly on the turf, whether or not it was recorded as a "sack." but if you're referring to "fighting back" from knee surgery, then you're technically correct. in addition, you'd be right if you meant that he couldn't count on the D in the fourth quarter to hold two touchdown leads that the offense built...
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Old 01-05-2010, 10:57 AM   #10
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that's a great piece. thanks a lot.

i don't expect it to get much play outside of Patriots Nation because it runs against the CW that Peyton Manning put up such a great season this year that no other QB in the history of the game, let alone anyone playing this season, even deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with him.

Most interesting (and also certainly to be ignored outside New England) is the fact that Brady out duels Manning in the two seasons where he had weapons among his receivers who were comparable to what manning had.

This makes me reflect that Brady, in his SB winning years, was really playing a very different game than Manning. The loss of Welker highlights the fact that for those seasons he always had one or at the most two go-to receivers, none of whom will be mentioned for Canton, and that he was basically playing to find the open guy, behind a line that gave him the time to do that. I know that most of us "knew that," but this just brings it into sharp focus.

His most amazing season was 2006, IMHO, when he lost both Branch and Givens. The fact that he still took the team to the AFCCG is quite remarkable. (I always thought that asking him to play that year without a #1--cynics would say without a #2--Receiver was a funny way to thank him for taking a Home Town Discount in May, 2005.)

Anyway, that's a great perspective on how challenging this season has been, without even considering that he's coming back from a lost season. As one of the folks who predicted an 11 win season in writing out here before the opening game, I always thought that it would be particularly tough.
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