makewayhomer

Houston is a 7 point favorite over the Pats. clearly bettors expect the Pats to rest some key players while Houston goes all out...if this game had been played last week the Pats would have been favorites. so, the money says the Pats sandbag

ditto for the Bengals...they are 9 point dogs at the NYJ. no way the line is that big if the Bengals weren't already locked into either the 3 or 4 seed.

both the Broncos (-13) and Ravens (-10) are big favorites over bad teams. I expect both to win.

the only line I see for Pitt @ Miami is a pick 'em...but most books haven't announced a line yet. this game is a coin flip.

upstater1

So vegas says it's the Jets and Balt for the last spots.

makewayhomer

yep, though "Vegas" is kind of a misconception, it's really "the betting market". bookies, in general, set a line where they think half the money will go on either side. there are situations where this isn't true and they, on purpose, take a position on 1 side, but this isn't usually the case.

when the money from the betting public disproportionately comes in on 1 side, bookies move the line. so "Vegas" starts the line and "the betting market" (ie the hundreds of millions of dollars wagered each week) moves it to a point of equilibrium.

supafly

So, would you jump on the 7 points, or do you think HOU will cover?

Obviously it'll depend on our plans to rest starters, etc--but once plans are announced (IF they are announced) the line will move down too.

makewayhomer

I really don't bet much anymore - the NFL is extremely, extremely hard to beat for a profit for a schmoe like me. I've eked out about a 55% win percentage for the last 4 years combined, which is just enough to beat the juice.

the single best Team Ranker / Power Ranking / etc is produced by the public betting market every week; compared to the work/analysis/investment that multi-million dollar betting syndicates do, the like of Peter King, Don Banks, are flat out jokes.

basically, trying to beat the NFL point spread is like trying to beat the US Stock market - good luck.

patsinthesnow

I think Belichick will go for the win, so I don't get the +7.

supafly

I've noticed lately that many of the public sides and totals have been wrong, to the point where last week I saw 8 games in a row where the betting public was wrong on sides/spreads. I can understand them being wrong on totals, but sides!! 8 in a row. The public had a 5-11 record last week according to sportsbook.com

Bookies and Sportsbooks have just gotta love the last month or so of the season. It seems like many underdogs cover.

lostjumper

That's what happenes when you have teams like the Colts throwing games. I would never bet on NFL games in the last 2 weeks of the seaon. Whats the line for the Colts game this week?

PATRIOTSFANINPA

San Diego only giving Wash 4 points - On a bad day with scrubs starting I would lay that

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BradyBranch39

interesting. I doubt we lose by 7+ and I doubt the Jets win by 9+. And Billy Volek can certainly lead the Chargers past Washington.

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