Forget The Stats...the Swarm Always Wins. - New England Patriots Forums

***IcyPatriot*** · 02-05-2006, 01:54 PM

I always analyze my Super Bowl selection different than normal. I have 1 rule of thumb....the swarming defense always wins more so than any other game. Perhaps because of the magnitude of the game, the nerves, or whatever but it seems there is never enough time to recover from being swarmed.

If Seattle can be effective swarming early on....they will win by 21. If they cannot then the Steelers will win by 3....IMO.

Does anyone else think the same way concerning the SB? Let's face it, the majority of the time the game is really never that close unless the leaders sustain a critical injury during the game.

Gumby · 02-05-2006, 03:05 PM

I think things are often magnified in the SB.

What is a small but comfortable lead in another game (10 pts) can take on a huge proportion in this game and psyche a team out and make them take chances (and therefore mistakes) they otherwise wouldnt make. The net result a lot more blow outs.

I think the old adage 'defense wins championships' applies. but not sure what the difference is between a 'good defense' and a 'good swarming defense'.

I would think a defense that swarms can be blown away by a team that can set up a couple of good fakes; use their own momentum against them - get them running the wrong way. But what is your meaning by swarming?

Fanfrom1960 · 02-05-2006, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby

I think things are often magnified in the SB.

What is a small but comfortable lead in another game (10 pts) can take on a huge proportion in this game and psyche a team out and make them take chances (and therefore mistakes) they otherwise wouldnt make. The net result a lot more blow outs.

I think the old adage 'defense wins championships' applies. but not sure what the difference is between a 'good defense' and a 'good swarming defense'.

I would think a defense that swarms can be blown away by a team that can set up a couple of good fakes; use their own momentum against them - get them running the wrong way. But what is your meaning by swarming?

Hmmm, I remember a 17 - 3 lead game that got a lot more "interesting".

Gumby · 02-05-2006, 03:16 PM

Yeah,
But that was just cause of 1 bogus ref call that called it back from 24-3.

And my theory above doesnt apply in that situation anyway (the 'greatest show on turf' wasn't going to be intimidated by being down a few points - they felt they could score on anybody. ) My theory was more about teams that lost their composure.

flutie2phelan · 02-05-2006, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby

Yeah,
But that was just cause of 1 bogus ref call that called it back from 24-3.

We know bogus ref calls ... and that was no bogus call.

Willy held Marshall Faulk in a cast-iron bearhug. Just saw it again on ESPN2.

***IcyPatriot*** · 02-05-2006, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby

I think things are often magnified in the SB.

I would think a defense that swarms can be blown away by a team that can set up a couple of good fakes; use their own momentum against them - get them running the wrong way. But what is your meaning by swarming?

By swarming I am saying like a bunch of bees from a nest who are angry...they are everywhere, at all times....and when they aren't...they swarm in and fill the gap/hole within seconds.

EDIT: This is why I stopped betting on sports 20 years ago...I really have no clue.