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Old 02-08-2006, 02:10 PM   #41
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thks Miguel - very nice job.

it helps me a lot.
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Old 02-08-2006, 03:27 PM   #42
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I suspect that Belichick has no problem paying Gorin what he is being paid, as long as he is as starter. As I recall, he gets less if he is a backup. I would note that Gorin has been the starter all year, even when Ashworth has been injured. I find it very likely that Gorin will remain and compete for the starting job, as he did this year.

With regard to STer, Let's just say that you have a different position than Belichick with regard to starting STers, who play many more reps than many other players on the team. The fact that they also play a position is a plus. But make no mistake, Izzo, Chatham, and Davis would have made the team in 2005, even if we knew tha they would never play one down as a linebacker. Maybe you'd rather have rookies starting on Special Teams. I am confident that will not be Belichick's choice this year, or any year.




Quote:
Originally Posted by captain stone
...for the terrific, detailed info. This should give BB/SP pause; surely they can receive more bang for their buck from someone other than Let 'em in Gorin and the ST-only LBs. It is time to bring along LBs who may have to eventually start.
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Old 02-12-2006, 08:23 PM   #43
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Now updated to account for the Zuriel Smith signing and for my new estimate of McGinest's 2006 cap number.
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Old 02-13-2006, 05:54 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
With regard to STer, Let's just say that you have a different position than Belichick with regard to starting STers, who play many more reps than many other players on the team. The fact that they also play a position is a plus. But make no mistake, Izzo, Chatham, and Davis would have made the team in 2005, even if we knew tha they would never play one down as a linebacker. Maybe you'd rather have rookies starting on Special Teams. I am confident that will not be Belichick's choice this year, or any year.
The point is not: does the team carry special teams specialists? The question is, rather: are they justifying their places by the quality of the team's returns/kick coverage? The point is: if we are going to have a mediocre performance on special teams, why not use the slots for cheaper or more versatile players? What seems undeniable is that the performance on special teams has been mediocre, so the question ought to be asked.
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Old 02-13-2006, 07:12 AM   #45
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You equation seems to be that there are 2-3 people who lead the coverage special teams and in your opinion special teams has been mediocre. Therefore, we shouldn't have any specialists.

I have a different analysis. First, in 2005, the coverages were much improved over 2004. And if the top special teams players are not doing their job, then they should be replaced, not have players at another position play their position as a part time job. If our TE's weren't performing, the answer wouldn't be to NOT carry TE's and have OT's ot Hbacks pick up the slack.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike the Brit
The point is not: does the team carry special teams specialists? The question is, rather: are they justifying their places by the quality of the team's returns/kick coverage? The point is: if we are going to have a mediocre performance on special teams, why not use the slots for cheaper or more versatile players? What seems undeniable is that the performance on special teams has been mediocre, so the question ought to be asked.
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Old 02-13-2006, 07:45 AM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
You equation seems to be that there are 2-3 people who lead the coverage special teams and in your opinion special teams has been mediocre. Therefore, we shouldn't have any specialists.

I have a different analysis. First, in 2005, the coverages were much improved over 2004. And if the top special teams players are not doing their job, then they should be replaced, not have players at another position play their position as a part time job. If our TE's weren't performing, the answer wouldn't be to NOT carry TE's and have OT's ot Hbacks pick up the slack.
I do think that special teams coverage has been mediocre. That's what the statistics say -- the fact that they were better than in 2004 (when they were flat-out bad) doesn't alter that. I certainly don't infer that we shouldn't carry special teams players.

I don't think that our problem has been with punting/kick-off (although Adam is not overwhelming) or with the returners (Dwight is good and if they were starting Bethel they must have believed that he wasn't seriously injured). So how does our strategy compare to other teams that were more successful? Are we tying up more roster spots/cap space to special teamers than other teams?

Special teams is the one area where we've had continuity of coaching, by the way. Is the coaching the problem?

That's what I'd like to see debated.
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Old 02-13-2006, 09:03 AM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miguel
At the time of the draft, the Patriots figure to have far more than 51 players signed or tendered. They will not need any additional cap room in order to draft, since all of the draft choices’ automatic rookie tenders of $235,000 will be below the 51st-highest cap number on the team. The Patriots’ 2006 rookie pool figures to be approximately $5,200,000, although the exact number will not be determined until after the draft. Of the rookie pool amount, only about $2.5 million will count against the cap, due to the Rule of 51. Somewhere between $10,000 and $25,000 of that will be used immediately after the draft to sign Undrafted Free Agents. The rest won’t be needed until July, when the draft choices are signed. The Patriots would also need to reserve at least $1,109,200 in order to pay for a 8-man practice squad and to pay for players, 52 and 53. In http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/ins..._insider_may9/
Pat Kirwan wrote in a cap-related article he wrote "that teams should keep a reserve pool of $750,000 to account for in-season replacements." Over the past couple of years the Patriots have used about a million dollars for in-season replacements.

Please note that as Jocelyn Robichaud pointed out in an email: "The current cap status is calculated with the top 51 earners. On the other hand, not all of these players will make the team. Thus, as the team shrinks its roster to 53 players, it will create cap room unless it keeps all of its top earners. For example, let's say that Bethel Johnson ($478,000 in salary) does not make the team and is replaced by Bam Childress ($235,000 in salary). This would free $243,000 in cap room for the Patriots. If Mike Wright makes the team instead of Dan Klecko, that would create $150,000 in cap space. If Ryan Claridge makes the 53-man roster instead of Chad Brown, that would create $565,000 in cap space. With just 3 those roster decisions the Patriots could create over $900,000 in cap space when the rosters are cut down to 53 players.

Calendar -
Today - $95,400,000
After signing the 5 ERFAs - $95,900,000
After the LTBE/NTLBE adjustment - $95,400,000
Escalator clause effect - $96,400,000
After converting the LTBE incentives of Light, Hochstein, and Gorin into NTLBE - $92,800,000
After releasing Starks and Poole - $87,600,000
After redoing Brady and Green's deals - $83,300,000
After extending Seymour - $82,300,000
After redoing McGinest's deal - $76.8 million
Signing 20 free agents (their own and others) - $86.3 million
Signing draft picks and UDFAs - $88.8 million
Practice squad and players 52 and 53 - $89.9 million
InSeason replacements - $90.9 million
which leaves a $2.6 million cushion to cover if my above estimates are way off as they are likely to be.
Miquel,

Superb work! Thank You very much; from your efforts it appears that the Patriots be improved from the 2005 edition.

It appears that they will be improved four ways:
1) experience gained the painful way of having to play rookies for injured people in 2005;
2) the redsult of in effect of having a "Double Draft", with two draft picks in rounds 3-7,(after awards);
3) also the financial and cap room to sign All their own FAs that they wish to sign;
4) to be a major player in having the cap room to acquire several veteran FAs from other clubs.
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Old 02-13-2006, 10:01 AM   #48
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MIguel... Thanks again for participating in the podcast! I know that it was a lot of work and the technical side of it can be a pain but I REALLY appreciate it!
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Old 02-13-2006, 10:08 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike the Brit
...Special teams is the one area where we've had continuity of coaching, by the way. Is the coaching the problem?

That's what I'd like to see debated.
Yes, I've always thought that Brad Seely was a major component of the special teams' problems over the years.

I'm glad somebody here has the perspicacity to see that, too!
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Old 02-13-2006, 10:45 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Patriotic Fervor
Yes, I've always thought that Brad Seely was a major component of the special teams' problems over the years.

I'm glad somebody here has the perspicacity to see that, too!
Well, that was a question on my part, not an answer ...
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