Week 13: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 12/06/09 - RECAP - New England Patriots Forums

***KontradictioN*** · 12-06-2009, 08:39 PM

I posted this to my blog [/shameless plug] but thought that it would get discussed more here. These are all the things, in my opinion, that are bringing this team down and will doom it in the playoffs. Anyway, here it is...

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Just a word of warning, I'm still fuming about this thing a little bit. This won't be a breakdown so much as it will be an assessment of where things went wrong for us today as well as where they have went wrong for us the entire year. I'll pretty much go about pointing out all that is wrong with this team...

1. Pass rush: I think I'm pretty much stating the obvious when I call out the pass rush for being so awful. Last season, the Pats gave up 27 touchdowns through the air (second only to the Arizona Cardinals who gave up 36) to their opponents. The bottom line is that this defense was not doing particularly well rushing the passer last year. The only real consistent pass rusher we had came off of the end of the defensive line in the form Richard Seymour who had finished the season with 8 sacks. The Patriots went on to finish tied at 14th in sacks (also with the Cardinals) on the year. How did we address that issue this past offseason? By letting our leading sack artist go to Oakland and addressing the issue for pennies on the dollar in the form of Tully Banta-Cain. Now, don't get me wrong, Banta-Caint has been good at times for us in the pass rush. But he isn't a game changer that the offensive line has to specifically prepare for. As a matter of fact, I don't think we have any such playmaker in our linebacking corps (Mayo included). Two years ago, the Pats went out and landed what was supposed to be a major free agent acquisition in Adalius Thomas. Thomas was supposed to be that playmaker. The guy that came in and immediately grabbed the attention of the offensive line. The guy who made the opposing quarterback's life a living hell. The LINEBACKER that could line up against a team's slot receiver, if needed, and cover him well. To date, Thomas has only showed up big time in a handful of games. This season, Thomas has 28 tackles and 3.0 sacks. To put that in perspective, Elvis Dumervil of the Broncos has accumulated 15 sacks. I haven't checked on this lately, but I'd be willing to bet that Dumervil makes less than Thomas does at this point.

Our pass rush has been an absolute killer this season. Quarterbacks have routinely had all day to sit back and pick and choose the receivers they want to throw to because it's pretty much assured that our defensive line, minus Seymour, is not going to get any push toward the quarterback. Many have called for Pees to blitz and then get angry when he doesn't. I'm not really sure what these people are watching. The fact of the matter is that even when Pees DOES call a blitz, it very rarely even gets close enough to breathe on the opposing quarterback. Last Monday night, Drew Brees was sacked only once and went on to feast on a secondary that was left as a sitting duck out there against the best offense in the league. Today, the results were mostly the same. Very rarely was Chad Henne put in a position where he had to hurry a throw (sacked once) and he went on to have a career day. He finished the game 29/52 for for 335 yards with 2 TDs and 1 pick. The pick came on a bad throw, but not one that we forced. With that stat line, one would think that we played the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. But we didn't. We played the 2009 Miami Dolphins. The team with one of, if not THE, worst receiving corps in the league. If we keep playing like this, we're going to be one and done in the playoffs. Guys like Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning (again), and hell we'll throw in Kyle Orton again (being that he already had a career day against this defense earlier in the year) will absolutely FEAST on this defense in a big game situation.

2. Lack of a third wide receiving threat: This is the second biggest weakness on the Patriots. Last week, I said that we got exposed during the Saints game. Not because they played tight coverage and harassed Brady all night long with just four guys. No. That's happened many times throughout Brady's career. It was the fact that the Saints had absolutely no respect whatsoever for our other options on offense. They kept both safeties over the top and double covered Welker and Moss all day while daring Aiken, Maroney, Faulk, Watson, and Baker to beat them. This was on top of being able to cut through an injured offensive line and harass Brady up the middle. The result? Our offense had very little production and we got blown out. When this game started, I asked aloud why the Dolphins didn't copycat the Saints blueprint? They were doubling Moss, but left Welker to one on one coverage most of the time. Then, at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth, they finally woke up. Welker and Moss both drew double coverage and our offense was once again shut down.

One of the biggest reasons for our success on offense in the 2007 season was not only the emergence of Moss and Welker in this offense, but it was also our ability to make teams pay with our third (Stallworth), fourth (Gaffney), and fifth (Watson before injury) options in the passing game. This season, we still have Watson but he is pulling blocking duty because of the injuries/woes on the offensive line the majority of the time. Stallworth, that guy on the other side of Moss who could stretch the field and make defenses pay dearly for rolling too much coverage over to Moss and Welker was let go after the 2007 season and allowed to depart to Cleveland. This was never really mentioned, but I believe it was a huge loss for us. Still, Gaffney came in during the final stretch in 2007 and stayed through 2008 and had a solid season. He didn't set the world on fire, but he was reliable. This offseason, he was let go and Joey Galloway was brought in. Galloway, even at 38, was a speedster capable of making the defense pay if they doubled up on Moss and Welker. The early games saw some growing pains between him and Brady. He had trouble learning the offense and had trouble building chemistry with Brady (my theory was that he wasn't used to the way Brady threw the ball). The Jets game saw Galloway get behind the man for, what would have been, a game winning touchdown catch but was overthrown by Brady. After that game, the coaching staff had apparently seen enough. I really wish they hadn't. We're really hurting for a receiver with his skillset right now. There should have been ways that they could make the offense work with him in it. Other posters have brought up ways that the coaching staff could have made the routes that he ran a little bit easier to understand and, thus, lessen the learning curve for an old dog who was having trouble picking up new tricks.

Fact is that Sam Aiken is a fourth or fifth WR in reality. Sure, he had a good catch today and in the Bucs game. He had a good stat line in the Saints game and has been good at blocking in screens. But, he has not been making defenses pay in any way whatsoever when they take away Moss and Welker. It's very possible that Edelman could come in and be inserted into Aiken's role, but I don't really think that he would fit. Edelman has a similar build to Wes Welker and would be best served in the other slot opposite Welker. On top of this, Ben Watson has not been able to run that many routes do his duty helping out with the blocking. This is another weapon we are missing. Watson is capable of stretching defenses, but has been relegated to keep defenders off Brady because of the injuries to the offensive line which have caused deficiencies in the blocking. The acquisition of a third vertical threat at the wide receiver position should be one of the many priorities in the offseason, either by draft or by free agency.

***KontradictioN*** · 12-06-2009, 08:40 PM

Last post was actually too long by 1,000 characters

so let me finish it up here...

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3. Blocking/Offensive line injuries/depth: I think it's pretty safe to say that Stephen Neal is one of, if not our most indespensible offensive linemen. Everytime he is injured, teams are routinely able to generate pressure on Brady up the middle which forces Brady to either hurry throws or to not fully step into them. Dan Koppen and Nick Kaczur both see improvement in their games when Neal is in there and this is because Neal is frequently able to chip both of their guys while also taking on his own (if facing a team lining up in the 4-3). Today, we again saw what happens when Connolly is inserted into that spot. I usually harp on Kaczur for this, but he wasn't the problem against the Dolphins. Early on, Connolly got abused by his man and, on the touchdown pass to Moss, saw his man absolutely destroy Brady on a sandwich hit. Brady jogged back to the locker room, clearly favoring his ribs, and then eventually came back out.

Later in the half, Miami inserted Randy Starks into the line-up at the nose tackle position and Starks basically owned Koppen in the second half. He was frequently in the Pats backfield and made Brady's life miserable in the second half. The left side of the offensive line was generally solid. Earlier in the season we lost Matt Light but our interior protection stayed solid and it was never really a threat to Brady (though we did have to give Vollmer help at times in the blocking game). Today, with full health on the left side, Brady's blind side was never really an issue. However, with Neal out on the right side Connolly, Koppen, and Kaczur have been frequently bombarded and defenses have seen success. I sincerely hope we get Neal back in full health for the postseason because we're going to need him. Like any other pocket passer, Brady's kryptonite is a pass rush up the gut. With Neal in, that won't happen so much. That said, offensive line should be yet another priority in the offseason.

I would mention the predictable and ultra-conservative play calling on offense. To be honest, though, it wasn't as big of an issue today as it has been the past few weeks. Sure, there was a 3rd and 11 where we handed the ball off and then had to put afterward. There were a few other plays which made my head scratch, like sending Welker deep when we only needed six yards (though Welker did beat his man, however that should have never been called due to Brady having trouble hitting the deep man after the first quarter). But there are not as many that stand out to me as have in the recent weeks. O'Brien is definitely going through growing pains, though.

And one more thing: Bill... STOP GOING FOR IT ON FOURTH DOWN! TAKE THE POINTS! Jesus. It failed in the Colts game, it failed in the Saints game, and it now failed in the Dolphins game. Guess what? The three points that we could have gotten on that field goal would have forced the Dolphins to go for a touchdown at the end of the game instead of settle for a field goal. Would we have stopped them? Probably not. But they would have had to hurry their plays even more and couldn't have simply stopped their drive at the 30. Please, please, please just take the points from now on because the 4th down failures have been far more than the 4th down successes this season.

And that's it for my rant. Sorry if I offend anybody's sensibilities about this team

Patspsycho · 12-06-2009, 08:46 PM

I disagree with the assessment on Aiken as the "4th WR." His stats speak for themselves 96 yards last week and 81 today, and would have been more if Brady hadn't overthrown him on that spectacular attempt he made trying to catch it. I think he is coming along well for a developing WR. I think of him as a TE disguised as a WR, with the physical gifts he has.

***KontradictioN*** · 12-06-2009, 08:52 PM

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Originally Posted by Patspsycho

I disagree with the assessment on Aiken as the "4th WR." His stats speak for themselves 96 yards last week and 81 today, and would have been more if Brady hadn't overthrown him on that spectacular attempt he made trying to catch it. I think he is coming along well for a developing WR. I think of him as a TE disguised as a WR, with the physical gifts he has.

We'll have to disagree on that then. I saw Aiken get absolutely lucky that he was in the position to catch that Favre-esque pass (Davis was actually ahead of him in the route) by using his size. Personally, I would much rather have a guy with speed on the opposite side of Moss, hence me showing love for Stallworth. With Aiken's build, he's more capable of working the middle of the field. You're right though. He did get separation on that pass that Brady missed. However, he's not able to do that nearly as much as we need him to. And I mentioned is stats last week. The statline was good, but that was about it. He never really made the Saints pay for doubling Welker and Moss the way Stallworth did when the Cowboys tried to do the same thing two years ago.

***363839*** · 12-06-2009, 09:00 PM

Great post, Kontra!
Not a thing there I could disagree with.
And ditto on going for it on fourth down.
This one could very well have cost us the game.

JFK · 12-06-2009, 09:04 PM

AiKEN can be a #3...He is underrated here. The more he is thrown to, the better he will become.

PATSYLICIOUS · 12-06-2009, 09:32 PM

Well let's look on the bright side. At least we don't have to sit on our hands waiting for SD/Cincy to lose a couple games or resort to rooting for the Dallas Cowboys in December again. The bye is no longer realistic so just beat 2 pretty bad teams and clinch this division. Make our own bye in week 17 since we'll be getting the 3 or 4 seed regardless in case we have lingering injuries. I think healthwise we are doing great this year that is another plus.

***KontradictioN*** · 12-06-2009, 09:34 PM

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Originally Posted by PATSYLICIOUS

Well let's look on the bright side. At least we don't have to sit on our hands waiting for SD/Cincy to lose a couple games or resort to rooting for the Dallas Cowboys in December again. The bye is no longer realistic so just beat 2 pretty bad teams and clinch this division. Make our own bye in week 17 since we'll be getting the 3 or 4 seed regardless in case we have lingering injuries. I think healthwise we are doing great this year that is another plus.

I think we'll see drastic improvements in the second half of games once this offensive line is able to play as a cohesive unit for a game. Brady will be able to stand upright and we should, once again, be able to send Watson out on routes like we were doing at other points earlier this year.

PATSYLICIOUS · 12-06-2009, 09:38 PM

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Originally Posted by KontradictioN

I think we'll see drastic improvements in the second half of games once this offensive line is able to play as a cohesive unit for a game. Brady will be able to stand upright and we should, once again, be able to send Watson out on routes like we were doing at other points earlier this year.

Yeah we need Neal and Vollmer healthy for January. If we can survive the next 2 games without them I'd say F it let them sit out till round 1. The right side just collapsed on a 3 man rush leading to the last pick, that **** is just inexcusable. Really would like to see Light-Mankins-Koppen-Neal-Vollmer as our playoff OL.

***KontradictioN*** · 12-06-2009, 09:44 PM

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Originally Posted by PATSYLICIOUS

Yeah we need Neal and Vollmer healthy for January. If we can survive the next 2 games without them I'd say F it let them sit out till round 1. The right side just collapsed on a 3 man rush leading to the last pick, that **** is just inexcusable. Really would like to see Light-Mankins-Koppen-Neal-Vollmer as our playoff OL.

I've made it pretty clear that I wouldn't mind seeing Vollmer in there as RT. But I really don't think Kaczur is that bad with Neal in there... especially against 3-4 teams. There is a reason Neal defeated Brock Lesnar in a wrestling match: he is a beast. When he's in, watch him. You'll see him take on his man and regularly chip either Kaczur's man, or Koppen's. The whole right side stands to improve with him back.