AndyJohnson

I cant be the only one who thinks the following.

Especially in big games, especially over the last 3 years, and at times when out run D is playing excellent, teams run an AWFUL lot on 1st down against us, especially early in the game.
Ive often found myself hoping that these teams would continue to run on first down, and 2nd as well, and spend the day in 2nd and 9-10, 3rd and 8-10, etc. It does happen a lot.

Ive wondered why, and think I have figured it out.

Offenses today call plays based on how a defense aligns more than who is on the field. (i.e. if a terrible run D brings 8 into the box, you throw, or if a bad pass D puts 6 DBs on the field, you spread it out and run)
Many offenses believe that if you try to stop the run with your front 7, without a safety in the box, they need to run on that.

Bill Belichick brings the 8th man into the box less than any coach in the NFL.

By doing this, and using the 2 gap scheme. BB keeps a strong front 7 first concerned with the run, and encourages teams to run into it. The job of the secondary in the run game is to limit runs that breal through the front 7 to 8-12 yards. (Except that the corners are expected to make plays up at the los when they are run all the way out to the sidelines)

When we refuse to bring a safety into the box, we almost 'force' them to establish the run on 1st down. With dominant front 7 play we do not need to bring the safety up, and when the front 7 is playing at its peak (Lets say any game that comes after the leaves turn brown for the last 3 years) no one can run on us, and everyone will try.


Thoughts?

pats1

I'm not letting this thread slip away!

Box_O_Rocks

Rodney, being a leading tackler, weakens the theory somewhat.

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DaBruinz

Sounds like a good analysis, Andy.

AzPatsFan

It is insightful; it also is called "fundamental football". And also called "keep it in front of you" and "bend but don't break" defense.

That is exactly what the two-gap seeks to do; yield yardage in small chunks forcing the opponents to string scoring marches together of many, many plays.

Belichick knows that this is difficult to do and not just because of great defensive plays. Receivers drop the ball, balls get tipped and intercepted, RBs fumble, and bad plays get called, or good plays are called but not executed well. A couple of these and a drive dies...

As for inviting the run, it is possible but I think the 3-4 two gap is an anti-run wide defense. It does offer the offense the option of running up the gut but that tends to insure no long runs, as you have to penetrate first the line, then the linebackers and finally the secondary to advance very far.

By Jove ! I think you've got it!

Michael

BB talked about that very thing during the Belistrator segement on Patriots All Access this week.

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AndyJohnson

Really? Wow. I feel even better about my post.

AndyJohnson

Not necessarily though.
How many of those tackels were made on pass plays? Remember NFL teams now pass much more than they run.

Plus Rodney made a lot of tackles (or was IN ON) a lot of tackles after the first line of defense, and could get to the corner on a 'strung out ' play without lining up in the box.

I would bet if the numbers were available Rodney wasnt one of the top tacklers on first down. I dont know for sure but the system indicates that would be true.

Also, Rodney was 'in the box' S in SD and made a ton more tackles in that system than in this one.

maverick4

That would also help explain why BB puts such value on having big, talented defensive lineman and linebackers.

I'm not sure if BB purposely tricks teams into running the ball on him, but I definitely think his defensive strategy is to prevent the big play, force teams into long drives, and take away an offense's top options.


By the way, I wanted to say this a few weeks ago, but nice job predicting almost exactly how the last half of the regular season would play out for the Pats.

.

shirtsleeve

Shhhhh. Loose lips....