One Post a Week (State of the Pats) - Page 3 - New England Patriots Forums

Rossmci90 · 09-14-2009, 12:42 PM

My feelings before the start of the season:

The offense is set, Brady will pass over 30 TDs for around 10 INTs, Moss and Welker will each have 1000 yards, Galloway will have 600. Chris Baker will solve any red zone problems, he'll have 8-10 TDs. Maroney will have a breakout year of sorts, but it will still be RB by commitee so he wont break 1000. Vollmer will have a good rookie year, spelling at both tackle spots and i see him starting in 2 years.

On defense Mayo and Meriweather will emerge as the new leaders of the defense and both will be playmakers. Im still worried about the pass rush and secondary but think both will improve as the season goes on. Im more concerned about the secondary because they are unproven not because i think they are untalented. I also envisage Meriweather playing a role in pass rush and will pick up a couple of sacks, he will emerge as one of the best safeties in the league this season.

Overall right now i see a 13 win season coming, and the main reason is Brady obviously. Him back just makes everything run smoother, as much as i enjoyed watching Cassel progress and wish him well in KC, it is awesome to have TB12 back.

***PatsFanSince74*** · 09-14-2009, 03:10 PM

Great idea.

How's about tho that we all have a gentleman/woman's agreement that we won't use what's posted here to rub it in to those of us (most likely myself included) who end up being wrong. Positive praise, for those who nail it, is cool and welcome but denigrating comments to those of us who are wrong because we stuck our necks out will make this no fun.

That said, this is lame if we don't go out on a limb. I mean the smart thing would be to play it safe and say, um, there are too many unknowns and I just don't know. That's the smart thing, so in a few weeks when we see how the wind's starting to blow we can go with the flow, but what the heck, here goes.

I'm gonna say that I think this is a great team, especially on Offense, that it has the possibility of reprising 2007 in many ways but (here's the "but" that will probably make me look dumb in January) I don't think it's going to win 13 or 14 games. Why?

There are too many variables that are still spinning around for me to be comfortable saying they're all going to fall in place in the way they would have to for a 13/14 win season. They might indeed fall in place that way (which is why it would be smart to wait), but the odds that they'll all come together the way we want them to and when we need them to are a little long.

I think TB looked great in the preseason, but everyone who has come back from this injury has had a period of readjustment when the live ammo starts flying in the regular season. So, I think there's a big "unknown" factor here. I don't think this will evidence itself so much in mistakes by Brady as in a conservatism in play calling in the first few weeks that will focus on protecting him from too many hits like the one he took from Big Albert in preseason.

We are all very hopeful that the addition of Taylor will give a shot in the arm to our running game and that Maroney, Morris, Faulk and the Law Firm will combine with him for big things. Again, this is an "unknown." Maroney was out all last year and God knows he has his critics here (of which I am not one); Taylor could be Corey Dillon reincarnated or he could run out of gas.

Finally, the O line is awesome but it allowed a lot of penetration in the preseason against other teams' number one units. Again, not a "panic" button but another uncertain variable that could lead to some unexpected results, especially with the concern over protecting Tommy.

The concerns about the D have been vocalized by many who know a lot more about this than I do. I'll only take an "everyman's" approach and say that any defense that, wherever they were in their careers, loses Bruschi, Rodney and Seymour (the latter at the last minute) is going to take some time to get its sea legs, especially when there are already unknowns/question marks in the Secondary.

What does this add up to for me? It's possible to look at this team and the schedule and say, OK we lose one or two in the Division and one or two other games, so, throwing in some probability analysis, the median is that we win 13 games, no fewer than 12 and no more than 14. But, I'm going to say that the uncertain elements for which we can't account will drive that number down. We'll still win the Division and be very competitive to win the SB, but if I had to give a number today, I'd say 11 wins.

chris_in_sunnyvale · 09-14-2009, 04:41 PM

Pre-Week 1:

Much like 2007, this team will be difficult to stop on offense. No honest-to-goodness blueprint was created to stop that offense other than "bring pressue with just the front four" and teams will try that this year, most to no effect. I expect teams to try lots of stunts and zone blitzes to confuse the blocking scheme. I also expect teams to put guys on Koppen's nose as he struggles blocking DTs one-on-one and do similar to Mankins as he struggles way too much in one-on-one pass blocking for a guy who receives such high accolades. Still, only the best defenses in football will be effective with these strategies. If teams are forced to blitz to bring the heat, the Pats will kill them.

The defensive side of the ball is intriguing. It looks like the Pats will be mostly a 4-3 team (like 2001) as the personnel is very suited to that base D. I'm curious how the run D is right out of the gate. If the DTs and Mayo prove impenetrable up the gut, I'll be ecstatic as I expect the D to improve as the year progresses. For whatever reason, I expect the secondary to struggle early, but round out well come December. I'm not sure how the whole Bodden/Springs/Willhite/Wheatley/Butler combo will shake out for the base and nickel packages, but I think firm roles will be set by later in the year.

I think the Steelers have clearly leaped ahead of the Colts as the obstacle to another title. If you look at all the playoff teams the Pats had to beat on the way to their 4 SBs this decade, this Steelers D would rank atop all of them on that side of the ball. On offense, we goof on their OL and the "undisciplined" way Roethlisberger roams around back there, playing a backyard-style game...but it works. I've never seen so many plays where WRs get so wide open because a play breaks down and the QB finds them time after time. That's so hard to defend and you have to respect that. If the Pats play the Steelers once again in the AFCCG, they will not be facing the shaky rookie they faced in 2004. The game could be one of the all-time greats.

Regards,
Chris

Fencer · 09-14-2009, 06:57 PM

I'm in Milan, under the effects of cough suppressant, wine, dessert wine, liquer, espresso, a red-eye flight, and the afore-implied cough. So I'll keep this short, and won't read from those who posted before me.

1. I believe in the offense. No reason it won't get back to second half of 2007 levels, and basically stay there. (First half of 2007 was before the league woke up.)

2. Each year some STs excel and some are OK. (Approximately.) My base guess is the same will be true this year.

3. I think the defense has been rebuilt around the assumption of fast LBs. I'm optimistic about each of Thomas, Mayo, and Guyton. Alexander -- not so much. So there will be personnel scrambling once the LB injuries start.

4. On the whole, we did NOT get the benefit in results of all that talent on the line. Something was imperfect about the scheme. I don't think Seymour will be that big a loss because I think somehow he wasn't being fully utilized.

5. I'm not aware of anybody yet playing consistently above the JAG level in the secondary except Meriweather, and he isn't yet the second coming of Ed Reed. Until at least one more guy joins him in very good + play, pass defense worries me.

***IcyPatriot*** · 09-14-2009, 08:51 PM

1: We really need to work on our running game to keep Brady healthy.

***PatsFanSince74*** · 09-16-2009, 09:37 AM

Andy: did you envision last week's post as the preseason post or do you prefer if we wait until after the Jets game before posting again. i hope this thread gets some traction. it's a great idea.

crypto · 09-16-2009, 05:40 PM

1

The defense is underrated. Down the stretch, the only bit I'm worried about (other than Mayo) is the pass rush, but the first game isn't enough for me to draw any damning conclusions. The secondary isn't stellar, but it's efficient and barring major injury it will only improve with time. Meriweather is one mean mofo. I haven't seen a Patriot hit as hard as he did Monday night for some time. Mark my words: Unless disaster strikes, that squad will be among the top ten in the league. At the very least they will keep most teams under twenty points.

Brady is a huge bad ass. Once he shook off the rust he absolutely blew the Bills out of the water and into fricking orbit . . . Then again, the fact that those two Watson touchdown passes ran the exact same play probably says something about the quality of the Buffalo secondary.

Maroney still has great potential. Fred Taylor did not impress. Granted, he was only in for nine plays, but if the offense continues to run a three- or four-back scheme, he won't get many more per game.

patsfan-1982 · 09-17-2009, 02:48 AM

aftter one week this is what i think of the pats ill start with the 0

QB brady he started rusty but at the end was the same HOF QB we know and love

RB taylor got a TD and maroney hit the hole hard he looked better then the numbers say

TE watson looked great

WR welker and moss where amazing galloway to me looked like he dose not know how to run hes routes i maybe worng but i dont think he will be a big part of the O this year he will have a big play or 2 but thats it

OL they did not run block very good and untell the end of the game did not pass protect very will they will need to get better because brady may need to pass 40 times a game for them to win

now ill start with the D

DL they looked just plan bad they need to get better VS the jets

LB will they where not great to start with and now with out mayo we will see how they work guys in and out to make up for mayo

S they looked good in 2 deep i would like to see them blitz and play the run more

CB again they looked good in 2 deep i would like to see them play more one on one

ST was great they won the game for the pats

will thats what i think aftter one week

signbabybrady · 09-17-2009, 11:46 AM

SBB's week 2 thoughts:

Merriweather had a good week one living up to the hype layed out for him.

Brady started shakey but was back to form by the end lets hope all the rust was shaken off because it seems like we will need his A game this week.

I thought the secondary was the real bright spot last week as they held Lee Evans and TO to 5 catches and 71 yards between the two of them. Also I feel like the underneath stuff was more open because of this.

I think the Oline and Dline got off to slow starts but where working nice in the 4th quarter hopefully that carries over too.

I don't think the score indicated last weeks game very well....we were a play here or there from a blow out....though so were the bills too but the bills got handed drives by the refs to make up for the ones they screwed up on their own.

Mayo's injury is going to be a tough one to overcome but I have faith in Guyton the big problem now is depth and lack of flexability as we will likely be forced into 43.

I think the above explains why we saw so much 43 in training camp. When Mayo was in last week we were playing 34 but once he went out it was almost all 43. So though the sample size was small it seems the added emphasis on 43 was as a back up plan for losing a LB. We will see for sure when Mayo comes back.

The RB by commitee looked OK at times as Maroney looked good on a few drives and Taylor showed his downhill running but not his flash (I am sure we will see some soon maybe this week as the Jets would seem a goo canidate for some cutbacks as they blitz and open up holes that may not be the initial read). However I think we also saw the problem with RB by commitee last week too, Maroney looked good on one early drive in particular than we didn't see him again until we were down and needed more passing. Also I wonder if it is easier on the Oline knowing and getting a feel for the RB behind them as one guy might do things a little different. When the RB by commitee works good though it is great as the backs are always fresh.

Faulk is awsome he so reliable and shifty his third down presence is amazing. 3rd down must give opposition the fits because you cant key in on faulk because of Moss and Welker but you can't really match up well vs him with one guy. CBs vs backs is not good, Faulk is too good a route runner and his hands are too good to expect LBs to shut him down, and to use a safety would take them away from deep help on the WRs.

I said last week this D will suprise teams and I think that will continue though it will likely not be quite so dominant as I thought until Mayo returns but I still think it will suprise. This week will be an equally big test on them as they need to prove they can shut down the run vs a team with its starting back active and that the secondary can be effective when the safeties will be more up at the line or at least more run and screen orientated.

thats it for this week see next week.

drive for 19-0 continues.

chris_in_sunnyvale · 09-17-2009, 02:00 PM

Post-Week 1:

Great finish with some luck thrown in thanks to Leodis McKelvin's boneheaded play of fighting for an extra yard, allowing himself to get stripped in the process. Pats pass blocking looked much better in 2nd half, although the run blocking disppeared. Glad to see Ben Watson shine after a maligned pre-season. Have no idea what happened to Galloway, but more than willing to let that develop over time if Moss and Welker can catch 12 balls each a game and keep moving the chains. The defense did a great job shutting down T.O. and Evans, but had trouble on the short stuff, especially screens to Fred Jackson and scrambling by Trent Edwards. Mayo will be missed.

The upcoming Jets game is intriguing. Rex Ryan puts together a good D and with Jenkins, Harris and Rhodes, the all-important defense up-the-middle is solid. It wouldn't shock me if the Pats struggle on O a bit. The other side of the ball will be what catches my eye as I'm looking forward to how Sanchez handles a BB defense, despite the warts and all. NY's WRs are not Buffalo's, so the Pats can likely devote more guys to shutting down the short stuff. If Leon Washington is kept in check, I like the Pats' chances.

Looking down the road to January, I see landmines galore if the team can't get the running game to click reliably. There will likely be one game of the 3 (or 4) in the post-season where the running game will be needed. In 2004, everyone remembers shutting down the Colts' 49 aerial TD offense. Everyone forgets that the Pats passing game struggled that day and Corey Dillon was the offensive star that day, moving the chains and controlling the clock in the 2nd half. Even in the offensive explosion of 2007, it was the Pats' running game which took control in the 2nd half of the AFCCG vs. San Diego while Brady struggled with his 3 picks. Being one-dimensional against a D like Pittsburgh's or Baltimore's is going to be a very difficult road to a title.

Regards,
Chris