Early impressions - Page 11 - New England Patriots Forums

D-cleater · 08-14-2009, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Synovia

Morris's success rate* as a Patriot is 42%

Maroney's is 58%

Your eyes are lying to you because you have already formed your opinions.

*success rate: Runs of greater than 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% of needed yards on 2nd down, or 100% of needed yards on 3rd down. (football outsiders)

Thanks for this - success rate is an interesting metric. I would love a link to this data but I will take your word for it.

Perhaps I form my opinion based on the expectation that a RB should run hard at all times, and I prefer to watch RB's who run with this style, and I don't think Maroney does. But if the stats say he consistently delivers, then I won' argue with that!

Did anyone else notice him wide open in the flat on several plays? I would LOVE to see Brady get him the ball a few times when he's got room to move, at least in preseason, even if the WR is open. Just recalling the big gains he got a few years ago in playoffs - those were fun to watch.

D-cleater · 08-14-2009, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Synovia

Its fine that you feel that way, the problem is, even with his problems, his production is still better than anyone else on the roster, and better than most in the NFL. Despite all his "dancing", "lack of vision", etc, he out performs morris and BJGE on almost every subset of running plays. Power running, 1st down, etc. He loses yards less often, has a higher success rate, and has a higher YPC.

I don't think you know what an NFL starting -caliber RB is.

uh, ok. and you do? have you ever been employed by an NFL team? just curious as to whether you have any credentials or whether you're just an message board fanboy making worthless comparisons to other RB's on the Patriots team that have no bearing on my opinion that Maroney doesn't fully take advantage of his considerable physical skills.

***Deus Irae*** · 08-14-2009, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D-cleater

Thanks for this - success rate is an interesting metric. I would love a link to this data but I will take your word for it.

Perhaps I form my opinion based on the expectation that a RB should run hard at all times, and I prefer to watch RB's who run with this style, and I don't think Maroney does. But if the stats say he consistently delivers, then I won' argue with that!

Did anyone else notice him wide open in the flat on several plays? I would LOVE to see Brady get him the ball a few times when he's got room to move, at least in preseason, even if the WR is open. Just recalling the big gains he got a few years ago in playoffs - those were fun to watch.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009

***patchick*** · 08-14-2009, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Synovia

Morris's success rate* as a Patriot is 42%

Maroney's is 58%

Your eyes are lying to you because you have already formed your opinions.

*success rate: Runs of greater than 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% of needed yards on 2nd down, or 100% of needed yards on 3rd down. (football outsiders)

I'll also toss in that a success rate above 50% is very uncommon. E.g. Adrian Peterson scored a 46%, Michael Turner 48%, etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by D-cleater

Perhaps I form my opinion based on the expectation that a RB should run hard at all times, and I prefer to watch RB's who run with this style, and I don't think Maroney does.

Yes!!!!! I think this is the real story. It's like baseball pitchers who rack up wins but the fans grumble about them because they're excruciating to watch pitch.

Maroney delivers based on any objective measure you can devise. But his style of running drives people crazy because he makes it look like he coulda, shoulda gotten more yards. When you plow straight ahead into the wall of humanity, everybody calls you "hard-nosed" and applauds you for your 3.7 yard average. When you run like Maroney, everybody calls you a "dancer" and blasts you for your 4.3 yard average.

I think this is a case where you have to stop trusting your eyes and trust the numbers.

Synovia · 08-14-2009, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D-cleater

uh, ok. and you do? have you ever been employed by an NFL team? just curious as to whether you have any credentials or whether you're just an message board fanboy making worthless comparisons to other RB's on the Patriots team that have no bearing on my opinion that Maroney doesn't fully take advantage of his considerable physical skills.

If hes not taking advantage of his skills, why does he get so many more yards than Morris?

***patchick*** · 08-14-2009, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Synovia

If hes not taking advantage of his skills, why does he get so many more yards than Morris?

Magnets.

Duh.

D-cleater · 08-14-2009, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

I'll also toss in that a success rate above 50% is very uncommon. E.g. Adrian Peterson scored a 46%, Michael Turner 48%, etc.

Yes!!!!! I think this is the real story. It's like baseball pitchers who rack up wins but the fans grumble about them because they're excruciating to watch pitch.

Maroney delivers based on any objective measure you can devise. But his style of running drives people crazy because he makes it look like he coulda, shoulda gotten more yards. When you plow straight ahead into the wall of humanity, everybody calls you "hard-nosed" and applauds you for your 3.7 yard average. When you run like Maroney, everybody calls you a "dancer" and blasts you for your 4.3 yard average.

I think this is a case where you have to stop trusting your eyes and trust the numbers.

Fair enough. I admit that I do expect a lot from a Belichick/Pioli 1st round RB, running behind an Oline featuring 3 Pro bowlers, in an offense featuring a HOF QB, HOF WR, and best slot receiver in the game. Maybe I expect too much.

But if the numbers suggest that Maroney is a more effective running back than A Peterson and M Turner, then I will politefully take them with a grain of salt :-)

***Frezo*** · 08-14-2009, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

I'll also toss in that a success rate above 50% is very uncommon. E.g. Adrian Peterson scored a 46%, Michael Turner 48%, etc.

Yes!!!!! I think this is the real story. It's like baseball pitchers who rack up wins but the fans grumble about them because they're excruciating to watch pitch.

Maroney delivers based on any objective measure you can devise. But his style of running drives people crazy because he makes it look like he coulda, shoulda gotten more yards. When you plow straight ahead into the wall of humanity, everybody calls you "hard-nosed" and applauds you for your 3.7 yard average. When you run like Maroney, everybody calls you a "dancer" and blasts you for your 4.3 yard average.

I think this is a case where you have to stop trusting your eyes and trust the numbers.

What I would like to see from Maroney is the guy that could get past the LOS and bust it up at the 2nd level for a 10 or 15 yard gain. I want to see those Dillonesque straight arms that should've become his trade mark. I don't know if the problem is Maroney himself, the o-line or the coaching, but he is, or was, the type of runner that should be doing this 3 or 4 times a game. Yes, he is a successful RB now, but IMO he has the potential to be more. Players that don't live up to their perceived potential regardless of stats can be frustrating for some fans.

T-cat · 08-14-2009, 04:18 PM

alright after all those negative posts i just want to say I LIKE ALL THE PATRIOTS!....except for that bum eric alexander

***DaBruinz*** · 08-14-2009, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JD10367

That's nice. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

You seem to love Maroney, as do others. I don't like Maroney, as others don't.

Time will tell which group was right. So far, the proof is in the pudding. They picked up Morris and Jordan, and now Fred Taylor. Shows you how much faith they have in Maroney.

They picked up Morris as a back-up to Faulk and Maroney because they needed a 3rd RB. They picked up Jordan because Morris spent most of 2007 on the IR and because of Maroney's shoulder injury. What happened in 2008? Morris missed several games, again, due to injury and Maroney ended the year on the IR. And Jordan was injured for much of the season as well. They added Taylor because Morris gets banged up during the year and Maroney is recovering from a broken shoulder bone..

But, lets just be you and ignore the facts that don't support you..