Fencer

Underlying any other consideration of the Pats' negotiating position is this -- how many $ is Cassell worth to the Pats as a player?

Here's how I see it:

Case 1: Brady is out for the season (again). Then Cassell is the only player who could step into Brady's place and be a Really Good Starter. Based on how he performed in the latter part of the season, the value of that is somewhere around the true franchise tag amount.

Yes, I know it's high, but Cassell uniquely has knowledge of the Patriot system.

Case 2: Brady is healthy. Then the main value of a backup QB is as an insurance policy. What's the probability of a previously durable 30-something QB coming off an injury going down again? 20%? Cassell's value in this scenario is a few million dollars.

Case 3: Brady starts the season impaired. Then Cassell's value is somewhere inbetween.

Put numbers and probabilities on all three scenarios, and you have an expected value. E.g., if you think the probabilities are 10-60-30% (which is more optimistic for Brady than Tomase might put them at), and the numbers are $15-3-8 million, then that works out to a $5.7 million dollar value for Cassell the player in 2009. Shift the probabilities to 20-30-50%, and his value goes up to $7.9 million.

In any case, unless Brady is expected to be out -- in which case trade talks are moot anyway -- Cassell's value to the Pats is a lot less than $14 million, so everybody knows they have an incentive to make a deal happen.

ctpatsfan77

First: Cassel.

Second: You're assuming that the only way Cassel does/can stay is on a one-year deal. I would argue that, if it came to it, the Patriots would try to get Cassel to resign to a longer deal (2-3 years) to minimize the 2009 cap hit.

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Metaphors

Also, you are just looking at Cassel's salary for 2009 at $15M. Remember he played as the #2 for a year+ and a starter for a year...making around $1-2M total over that time. Entirely justified since he was a 7th round pick on a rookie deal, but he clearly out-performed that deal.

So think of the $15M as a $7M cap hit for 2009 plus an $8M bonus for the work he has done for the last couple years. Not optimal since the Pats really need to extend Wilfork. (Seriously. Do it now. I'll wait.) But as a business decision it is certainly not unreasonable.

As CTPF said, I would expect them to sign Cassel to a more cap friendly deal if they intend to keep him. I don't think that will happen, but there are clearly more factors in play than just the $15M tag cost.

j00fek

the early tag means more time to get a deal done with min,det,kc,chi,sf

Fencer

Oops.

My question is valid without that assumption.

OK, then -- how much is he worth per year?

Fencer

Because BB is so sentimental?

tanked_as_usual

cassel is worth the minimum to the pats in terms of salary........but he is worth at least a 1st and a 3rd round pick in a trade

cassel is already gone

WhiZa

Can they trade him now or have to wait for some date to pass? I would have thought they would have a deal in place before putting the tag on. Because if they can't deal him it's a huge hit to the cap. I'm guessing they must have some sort of agreement made, but they are just working out how many picks it's going to be.

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Metaphors

No. As my post said I don't think the Pats would pay $15M to Cassel as plan A. It seems clear they will be looking to get good value in a trade. If that doesn't happen and they decide to keep Cassel, they will likely try to work out a more cap friendly deal (eating a bonus as dead money in the future).

If none of that works out and they end up keeping Cassel at the tag value, my point was that a 1-year $15M deal could be justified from a business perspective because Cassel has played on the cheap for 4 years.

Taking care of an employee that has greatly outperformed their salary over several years isn't being "sentimental". It shows loyalty and fairness for the folks getting it done between the lines and demonstrating that their job is important to them.

Plan A: Trade Cassel early in the Free Agency period
Plan B: Sign Cassel to a deal that effectively translates to 1-year at $15M (maybe a $20M option bonus due March 1 next year). Still look for a trade.
Plan C: Keep Cassel at $15M tender or release Cassel and take 3rd round comp pick in 2010 (depending on other contract needs)

I don't think they get to plan C so the point is likely moot. In the unlikely event that Cassel plays for the tag value, he is obviously not a $15M QB...but he has certainly earned a bonus for his play the last couple of years.

tanked_as_usual

if there wasn't something already in the works, cassel would have been waiting to sign the tender the moment it was given.....I think everyone will play nice in this one.....at least for now