How much salary is Cassel actually worth to the Pats as a player? - Page 4 - New England Patriots Forums

PatsFanSince74 · 02-07-2009, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fencer

You and other folks are misunderstanding me. Perhaps I should have included more steps to the line of reasoning.

1. The Pats, Cassel, and hopefully one or more other teams are or will be in a multi-way negotiation.

2. The outcome of a negotiation is heavily influenced by the consequences to each party of failure.

3. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) to assess what the consequences to the Pats of failure are.

4. Failure involves Cassel staying for a known amount of money ($14 million+). The magnitude of the failure is the excess of that amount over his true value to the Pats.

5. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) what his true value to the Pats is.

I also read your comment a little further on. Thanks.

The flaw in your logic is that his "true value to the Pats" is what the market says they have to pay him, in the same sense that a house is "worth" what someone will pay for it under a reasonable purchase and sale scenario, even if the comparables say it should sell for more or less.

I will concede that the tag number, because it is not a function of a free market, muddies the waters. Nonetheless, tag not withstanding, if there are teams that will give Matt a deal with $30 million guaranteed including $13--17 in the first year, then that is what a Franchise QB is worth. It is the Pats problem if they decide to keep two Franchise QB's on their Roster in the Cap era, but that complication doesn't suggest that his "true value" is any less.

stcjones · 02-07-2009, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanked_as_usual

cassel is worth the minimum to the pats in terms of salary........but he is worth at least a 1st and a 3rd round pick in a trade

cassel is already gone

You are the one who has it right IMHO.......lets look at this logically......IF the Pats keep Cassel......they have to pay him the franchise tag amount of 14.9 mil or whatever.....THEN next year.....he can go anywhere he wants (like Samuels did) for more money......Now the Pats know that his HIGHEST trade value of his career is most likely right NOW!!!.......so he will be moved........and secondly.....we could have possibly seen the BEST of Matt Cassel.....not sure if he is a one and done....or whether he will become one of the game's greats.......my feeling is that the Pats custom made an O for him last year that was pretty darned conservative........If he goes to a KC or Detroit.....etc......may not have as much success or luck....good post tanked!

AzPatsFan · 02-08-2009, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fencer

So you think ANY amount of money paid to Cassel -- as opposed to being paid to other players -- is money well spent? Would you think it is a good decision to pay him $50 million next year?

If not, what's the largest amount you do think it is a good decision to pay him?

That is easy question. Apply the "Kraft criterion". After all He IS the owner and final decision maker. "... will spend up to the limit the league allows every year, and no more. And we want to be competitive contender every season."

What you or I might do is speculative. What he WILL and HAS done is history. The Pats will spend what they can afford. While fielding a competitive contender, which consists of good players everywhere, ... including the reserves on the bench. Simple, no??

PatsFanSince74 · 02-08-2009, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AzPatsFan

That is easy question. Apply the "Kraft criterion". After all He IS the owner and final decision maker. "... will spend up to the limit the league allows every year, and no more. And we want to be competitive contender every season."

What you or I might do is speculative. What he WILL and HAS done is history. The Pats will spend what they can afford. While fielding a competitive contender, which consists of good players everywhere, ... including the reserves on the bench. Simple, no??

Good answer. I would just add that any payment "they can afford...while fielding a competitive contender" would also be consistent with a fairly established "market value" for Matt, which would clearly make the $50 mill number absurd.

***mgteich*** · 02-08-2009, 11:40 AM

Why is Cassel the only QB to be considered as a backup to Brady? IMHO, to give us the best chance at a SB, we would sign the pick of the veterans for say $4M on a one-year contract (or less with incentieves), trade Cassel for whatever (with Matt's cooperation) and then use the rest of the cap money for extensions or a key free agent.

***mgteich*** · 02-08-2009, 11:43 AM

Why would Cassel sign a 2-3 deal with the patriots? He has $14.6M in hand for 2009. Would the patriots offer him a HIGHER contract. say $24M over three years with a $14.6M bonus. Would Cassel consider this deal worth it; I would recommend it to him. Shouldn't he risk that he is worth more tha $10M after the 2009 season. Would you offer more?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctpatsfan77

First: Cassel.

Second: You're assuming that the only way Cassel does/can stay is on a one-year deal. I would argue that, if it came to it, the Patriots would try to get Cassel to resign to a longer deal (2-3 years) to minimize the 2009 cap hit.

Fencer · 02-08-2009, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AzPatsFan

That is easy question. Apply the "Kraft criterion". After all He IS the owner and final decision maker. "... will spend up to the limit the league allows every year, and no more. And we want to be competitive contender every season."

What you or I might do is speculative. What he WILL and HAS done is history. The Pats will spend what they can afford. While fielding a competitive contender, which consists of good players everywhere, ... including the reserves on the bench. Simple, no??

You completely ducked the question. No surprise.

Fencer · 02-08-2009, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanSince74

The flaw in your logic is that his "true value to the Pats" is what the market says they have to pay him, in the same sense that a house is "worth" what someone will pay for it under a reasonable purchase and sale scenario, even if the comparables say it should sell for more or less.

Quite wrong.

By "true value to the Pats" I meant "cost to the Pats in salary cap dollars of similarly enhancing their probability of winning games and champions through other players". It has NOTHING to do with Cassell's market value.

There are at least three relevant numbers here:

A. What another team would be willing to pay Cassell.
B. The $14 million that Cassell is assured of receiving if no further transactions occur.
C. Cassell's true value to the Patriots (which, unless Brady is known to be out for the season, is a LOT less than $14 million).

The comparison between A and B is complicated a lot by considerations of single-year vs. multi-year deals. However, the comparison between B and C is pretty much apples-to-apples.

Fencer · 02-08-2009, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgteich

Why is Cassel the only QB to be considered as a backup to Brady? IMHO, to give us the best chance at a SB, we would sign the pick of the veterans for say $4M on a one-year contract (or less with incentieves), trade Cassel for whatever (with Matt's cooperation) and then use the rest of the cap money for extensions or a key free agent.

We have bingo.

Fencer · 02-08-2009, 05:36 PM

Transwiki:Threat point - Wiktionary

Threat point is a term used in game theory to refer to the payoff to a player in a cooperative game when the player decides not to cooperate. Thus, the higher the payoff of the threat point compared to the payoff for cooperation, the less likely it is that the player will decide to cooperate.