Deus Irae

Derek Anderson could serve as a pretty good poster boy for your position.

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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

JoeSixPat

So you think that Cassel would be starting and Brady would be on the bench?

If that's the case I'd agree you're right - Cassel would be taking a big risk.

Of course everyone else would assume that Cassel would be on the bench and Brady would be starting - hence, less of a risk (except for that rash of major bench accidents awhile back.)

E Belichick Unum

OK, Cassel is hot right now. He had a great year and surprised everybody. So he signs the tender and purposely screws up any trade by refusing to negotiate with the new team. He could do it and his trade value goes way down. So the Pats keep him and he gets hurt in the preseason, or in garbage time in some blowout, or even worse for him he doesn't play a lick and O'Connell serves as #2 behind Brady. His value gets killed. He will probably never be hotter than he is today. He has a chance at either a big payday or a huge payday. He isn't rich, he made good money by normal standards, but backup money by NFL standards. He takes the payday, shakes Belichick's hand, thanks the Krafts and goes to Tampa, or MN, or Detroit.

Too many bad things can happen if he doesn't take the money now.

JoeSixPat

Why would you be expecting him to play in the pre-season? He's under no obligation to whatsoever. Like Asante Samuel, he loses no money, and needs only report to the team for the regular season to collect his $14.65 million.

What incentive do you see him having to play during the pre-season and risk injury?

So you think that 1.) Cassel will be playing in the pre-season risking injury and then 2.) Cassel will be given the job as starter while Brady sits on the bench?

I just don't see that happening.

E Belichick Unum

So then he doesn't sign the tender? The Pats can always remove the tag, making Matt a FA.

It really doesn't matter, Matt will probably be traded before March 1.

JoeSixPat

I have no idea what you're talking about now.

All I'm saying is that if Cassel is interested in the most amount of guaranteed money in the next two years, then he's not going to do better than signing the tender and going back on the market next year. Once he signs the tender the Pats can't revoke it nor is it likely they could trade him.

Samuel got more in two years as a tagee/free agent than he would as just a free agent - and Samuel actually had to risk injury by PLAYING during the season. Unless someone's going to give Cassel a $14.65 million salary at the beginning of his contract, he'd make out better in guranteed money as weel - but unlike Asante - he would sit out the pre-season AND the season on the bench behind Brady.

The risk that the ten or so teams who are in need of a top QB this season would all solve their QB problems in THIS offseason also strikes me as very very low. As many have stated, the rookie QBs are weak this year, as is the Free Agent QB crop outside of Cassel and Anderson. Which QBs do they think are going to fill all the needs of the market this year?

The truth is that Cassel is more interested in playing, getting on with his own career, than sitting on the bench for another season even at $14.65 million. His agent is already working some ballpark numbers and in the worst case scenario, if he doesn't like the offers or locations, he can sign the tender - but I don't think that's going to happen.

But I strongly disagree with you that Cassel would start ahead of Brady or would see a reason to play in the pre-season under a franchise tag situation. All that being said, I'd be he's already taken an insurance policy out that will pay him what he'd make signing a long-term deal should he fall in a ditch and break his leg tomorrow. Everyone who talks about all the "risk" that players are taking forget that there's ways they protect themselves financially.