Another "Stellar" Piece by Mike Freeman at CBSSportsline - New England Patriots Forums

***Rob0729*** · 12-22-2008, 07:29 AM

Quote:

Pats Showing Heart But Playoffs All But Dead

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The New England Patriots are showing the kind of heart and passion you know is there. The problem for them: it's too late.
The AFC East is a total logjam but basically for the Patriots it comes down to this:
1. If Miami beats the Jets next week, Miami wins the division and is of course in. The Patriots are out.
2. If that happens, and Baltimore beats Jacksonville, the Ravens are in. The Patriots are out.
3. The Patriots must beat Buffalo next week.
4. To win the division, the Patriots need the Dolphins to lose or tie.
Whew.
Basically, I think the Patriots have a 20 percent chance of getting in.
But they are playing hard right now and this has been one of Bill Belichick's best coaching jobs.

Pats Showing Heart But Playoffs All But Dead - CBSSports.com

What a convoluted and slanted way to say that if the Pats win and either the Dolphins or Ravens lose, the Pats get into the playoffs. He is making it sound like all these different scenarios have to fall into place for the Pats to get in. I know Freeman isn't all that bright based on all his moronic columns over the years, but why make it sound like some crazy, insurmountable formula is needed for the Pats to get in? Shotty writing.

PatsFan2 · 12-22-2008, 07:42 AM

And he's not to be confused with a Math genius either because if the Pats take care of business in Buffalo they have 50/50 chance of getting in. Which is as good as any if you ask me. I don't know where he gets his 20% unless he's thinking the Pats have no chance of defeating Buffalo. Kevin Faulk should show Mike Freeman his receiving numbers against the Bills over the years.

stinkypete · 12-22-2008, 07:42 AM

The Jets have looked like crap lately, but Miami almost got beat by the Chefs, and they didn't look good against San Francisco last week. Plus, the Jets are still alive, albiet by a slim margin. I don't see a Miami win as a forgone conclusion.

xmarkd400x · 12-22-2008, 07:49 AM

It depends on how you look at the numbers. If you view every game as a 50% chance of winning, then it breaks down like this:

Chance of Ravens loss (50%) or Dolphins loss (50%) = 75%. (This is derived from the converse of the chance they both win. The chance of them both winning is 25%, or 50% * 50% [1/2 * 1/2]).

So, Pats chance of playoffs would be 50% * 75%, or 37.5%.

If you assume the Pats win, then their chances of being in the playoffs are 75%.

================================================== =
For your own maths:

Probability of Ravens win = R
Probablility of Dolphins win = D
Probability of Pats win = P
(for this formula, .5 = 50% chance of winning)

Pats chance of playoffs = P * [1 - (R * D)]

***j00fek*** · 12-22-2008, 07:51 AM

all you have to thinkis we win and its still 50/50...thats it 50/50

PatsFan2 · 12-22-2008, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xmarkd400x

It depends on how you look at the numbers. If you view every game as a 50% chance of winning, then it breaks down like this:

Chance of Ravens loss (50%) or Dolphins loss (50%) = 75%. (This is derived from the converse of the chance they both win. The chance of them both winning is 25%, or 50% * 50% [1/2 * 1/2]).

So, Pats chance of playoffs would be 50% * 75%, or 37.5%.

If you assume the Pats win, then their chances of being in the playoffs are 75%.

================================================== =
For your own maths:

Probability of Ravens win = R
Probablility of Dolphins win = D
Probability of Pats win = P
(for this formula, .5 = 50% chance of winning)

Pats chance of playoffs = P * [1 - (R * D)]

Alright Einstein i thought this was football thread.

***Lloyd_Christmas*** · 12-22-2008, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xmarkd400x

It depends on how you look at the numbers. If you view every game as a 50% chance of winning, then it breaks down like this:

Chance of Ravens loss (50%) or Dolphins loss (50%) = 75%. (This is derived from the converse of the chance they both win. The chance of them both winning is 25%, or 50% * 50% [1/2 * 1/2]).

So, Pats chance of playoffs would be 50% * 75%, or 37.5%.

If you assume the Pats win, then their chances of being in the playoffs are 75%.

================================================== =
For your own maths:

Probability of Ravens win = R
Probablility of Dolphins win = D
Probability of Pats win = P
(for this formula, .5 = 50% chance of winning)

Pats chance of playoffs = P * [1 - (R * D)]

Ok, but what if we predict our chance of winning are 70%, the Jets chance of winning are 45%, and the Jax chance of winning at 25%?

Now we have a 51.25% chance that one of Bal or Mia will lose their game (inverse of the % chance of both winning - .65*.75=48.75%). Combined with our 70% chance of winning vs Buf, we are left with a 35.88% chance of make the playoffs, which is pretty close to xmarkd400x's original outcome.